mahk_webstah

I volunteer

We could do worse

Well now that we’ve figured that out…let’s see the Nam push the upper range highrr

Yes and where it sits for a bit double digits possible. i volunteer

A rapidly intensifying coastal storm can certainly have a heavy band even if moving quickly. I’m talking 1-2”/hour

GYX seems to be saying that the nam could be signaling a heavy meso band in the interior coastal plain

watches up

Let’s hope it’s not a comedy routine like last year.

Obviously GYX was aggressive for a reason. I wasn’t paying close enough attention. Looks like we have a decent 1st storm with cold to keep it and squalls in Thursday to freshen it and then more at the weekend.

GYX is aggressive here with 5-9 in zones plus more in the early evening. Going with blend on qpf of .7-1.0

Been chatting with a friend who lives in Glencoe and watching the bands on radar trying to give him a sense of how much they’re going to end up with. Maybe an hour or two ago he told me there was three or 4 inches and I told him they would probably end up around eight or 10 inches.

When the euro is jumping around this much, it’s kind of ridiculous because it didn’t used to do that. it’s probably a perceptual bias, but it does seem that the models perform worse and worse. I think maybe it’s climate change to extent but maybe it’s just the large numbers of models coming out every couple of hours. In the old days of the 70s and 80s and even the 90s some extent they weren’t that many models so your perceptions wouldn’t change every 2 to 4 hours. Meteorologist would just look at the overall set up and whatever data they had and make their best guess forecast and refine it as it got closer. It seems to me will end up pretty much near the global model average from yesterday and today and then tomorrow the shorter range models can start to take over a bit

When you put it in the context of what the other models are showing, it would make sense that it would end up there.

You’ve already had a mini start up there, but this will be a great start for many of. It comes true because it looks cold for a while.

Think this ends up between amped gfs runs and latest EPS?

Post of the year! How awesome

Given it’s relative consistency, I would say a compromise is an order, but with an edge towards the GFS

Getting quite a heavy snow shower here and the ground is coated. Windy so it looks pretty great outside.

Over under of 40?

Hesitancy at GYX but EPS doesn’t look that far off the coast.

The nice thing here is that this pattern evolution on the models just seems to be getting a little bit better and better each day. Nothing fast and dramatic just slow continue to prove it which makes the whole thing actually be believable. Last year was so awful waiting for it And waiting for it. And it looks so so very good on the models.

It’s here it’s queer and it’s fabulous. Get used to it.

Thank you. LBS is the issue though not necessarily for you usually

No. You should do it. Because then when it trends south and east so many will be happy.

It can always always go poof.