mahk_webstah

Been chatting with a friend who lives in Glencoe and watching the bands on radar trying to give him a sense of how much they’re going to end up with. Maybe an hour or two ago he told me there was three or 4 inches and I told him they would probably end up around eight or 10 inches.

When the euro is jumping around this much, it’s kind of ridiculous because it didn’t used to do that. it’s probably a perceptual bias, but it does seem that the models perform worse and worse. I think maybe it’s climate change to extent but maybe it’s just the large numbers of models coming out every couple of hours. In the old days of the 70s and 80s and even the 90s some extent they weren’t that many models so your perceptions wouldn’t change every 2 to 4 hours. Meteorologist would just look at the overall set up and whatever data they had and make their best guess forecast and refine it as it got closer. It seems to me will end up pretty much near the global model average from yesterday and today and then tomorrow the shorter range models can start to take over a bit

When you put it in the context of what the other models are showing, it would make sense that it would end up there.

You’ve already had a mini start up there, but this will be a great start for many of. It comes true because it looks cold for a while.

Think this ends up between amped gfs runs and latest EPS?

Post of the year! How awesome

Given it’s relative consistency, I would say a compromise is an order, but with an edge towards the GFS

Getting quite a heavy snow shower here and the ground is coated. Windy so it looks pretty great outside.

Over under of 40?

Hesitancy at GYX but EPS doesn’t look that far off the coast.

The nice thing here is that this pattern evolution on the models just seems to be getting a little bit better and better each day. Nothing fast and dramatic just slow continue to prove it which makes the whole thing actually be believable. Last year was so awful waiting for it And waiting for it. And it looks so so very good on the models.

It’s here it’s queer and it’s fabulous. Get used to it.

Thank you. LBS is the issue though not necessarily for you usually

No. You should do it. Because then when it trends south and east so many will be happy.

It can always always go poof.

The great promise month of December just got better not worse. Plenty of cold air and an active storm track and signs that late month will not warm up.

There’s a lot of scar tissue in this forum. But with scar tissue, you just have to break it up and scrape it away.

And you would think that northern Greenland is a less suppressive for most of New England

Miller A always a bit risky the farther north we get. Could be a problem up here, but you’re pretty close to the coast.

It was a massacre

Same here. It’s cute.

I grew up in Dover, DE. We had lots of good winters between 1977 and 1996. At least 4 16"+ storms and good stretches of deep cold, iced/skating ponds, etc.

If that trough out west progresses east, that could be a good set up?

1st legit possibility. But still a longshot.

Oh my God that has to be saved and used repeatedly this winter