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mahk_webstah

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Everything posted by mahk_webstah

  1. mahk_webstah
    I wish the bulk of this wasn’t falling overnight
  2. mahk_webstah
    I think my forecast has it around four or 5° on Sunday night during the heaviest snow. Don’t think I’ve seen that since maybe 2013 or 14.
  3. mahk_webstah
    The worst punishment for a snow weenie would be no phone or computer and no looking out the window
  4. mahk_webstah
    Seems the GFSAI has a deeper and closer coastal low than the euro AI
  5. mahk_webstah
    And you might be able to say that is quite possible
  6. mahk_webstah
    991 at the Cape? That seems pretty significant.
  7. mahk_webstah
    Unfortunately, there’s still plenty of time for things to go wrong
  8. mahk_webstah
    Oh, I think you’re right. But I think it’s not just weenies who assume that the top range of a forecast is what will verify. The general public I think falls into that trap.
  9. mahk_webstah
    Well, you know a lot more than I do lol. Maybe 10 to 20 would’ve been better.
  10. mahk_webstah
    You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting. if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow.
  11. mahk_webstah
    With consistent QPF over 1 inch and some case? And ratio is projected to be quite high due to a frigid air mass and very deep DGZ. Most models have had this for Southern New England at least for two days now, right?
  12. mahk_webstah
    Yes, it does. It’s kind of hard to believe given where this was three days ago. Now we see if we can trend to a stronger coastal that might put a heavy band somewhere up around you or me. But even if that doesn’t happen, if we get those projected ratios and the snow is falling in the low single digits temperatures that’s really gonna be something
  13. mahk_webstah
    The ones that just slowly get better and better as we get to start time are the best. But on the other hand, this thing is still three days away, which seems like forever.
  14. mahk_webstah
    You’re gonna have helluva pack
  15. mahk_webstah
    And that’s 10:1 so add at least 20% and maybe up to 50%
  16. mahk_webstah
    LBChickens?
  17. mahk_webstah
    I just have to check if you’re being real here or are you being a parody of yourself? Clarity would be helpful in these stressful times.
  18. mahk_webstah
    I’m confused at how many storms are being modeled. So we have this upcoming one Sunday Monday then do we have another one Thursday and then a third one on Sunday
  19. mahk_webstah
    This week is an incredible test of these various model suites and AI
  20. mahk_webstah
    I know we have to discuss what’s right in front of us, but with the potential for later next week there could be a corridor that maxes is out on both storms. Maybe something like Philly to Boston or maybe just Philly to New York. snow up to thy knickers
  21. mahk_webstah
    Well, yeah, but his whining is much less annoying than most whining.
  22. mahk_webstah
    WPC also has the caution flags, but the consensus in the models in this trend, and in the ensembles as well is pretty convincing. But as you’ve said a couple days ago, this could trend back south. but it also seems that the structure of the storm is changing and that the strong over running pushes what creates a big mid Atlantic snow and then a secondary development gives the New England snow.
  23. mahk_webstah
    -8. I wonder if we get that little drop and temperature just as the sun starts to come up. Coldest morning of the winter. So far but probably not for long.
  24. mahk_webstah
    Mirage caution flags
  25. mahk_webstah
    Have we ever had a Richmond to Montreal to Halifax KU?
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