mahk_webstah

I wanna lay down some pack as a hedge on suppression with a big block. Oh and of course to give ya'll a better cold source... of course.

day 5-6 is usually when storms modelled as significant sort of disappear or get unclear. Then they get sampled (when does this one get sampled?). And then at day 4 (tomorrow morning) the direction gets clearer. This is established weenie wisdom

That isn't early release, that's a firehose.

Very goood for many. Close to region wide

The Euro is a slacker?! Lets give it a day off and stick with every other suite of guidance...

985 at Block Island does that? Something's not right. That should be a decent storm for CNE and NNE, not a 4-8er.

So do we get the 19th to come up the coast? Maybe...

No other way to play it than to be in the moment with whatever’s happening. When it was apparent we were going to have two weeks of dry weather. I just made it about doing different walks in beautiful places, knowing that the snow will come and there will be time to enjoy that. looks to me like we have snowpack up here through all of March based on these long range models.

So this morning both euro and gfs bring good snows up into NNE. Let’s hope our southern friends can get in on this. If not, I would think the coastal areas down through the middle Atlantic are going to get a big one at some point in the next couple weeks. I am about 37 inches short of my seasonal average and I have very little doubt I will get there.

Yes you will

No Changes. No. Changes.... To my eye this doesn't seem like an overly suppressive look? The 50-50 isn't too far S and E. But the winners will likely be Mid Atlantic, SNE and CNE when it comes to jackpots?

Suppression is mediated by more than just the arctic oscillation. Like the position of the PNA ridge. Or if there’s an active southern stream and split flow. And the positioning of high-pressure around Greenland.

could mean it favors the interior via Miller Bs that shoot out of the southern stream and are forced to redevelop?

No Changes?!? Uh oh, I might owe someone an apology... But I don't believe it. Full on ahead to our new pattern! Even if it doesn't come in as even and coordinated as planned.

Be careful who you get drunk with...

The stress of the season is turning so many of us into different people. Or is it bring out the repressed parts of who we really are??!! Ray, care to comment?

Jesus it’s a week away and you people are flopping all over the place with every run. good god it’s the start of pattern change and the models are trying to sort it out.

Average temps are good for us

You found it! I’m so proudah you.

Be safe

This makes sense to me. A more interior storm before the blocking sets in too strong. Snow breaks out on Monday the 12th

Nah that blocking looks stout. Buckle up buttercup

A couple of questions if you don’t mind: Besides, a phased, coastal storm, what other kinds of events might this pattern produce? Will 50-50 be suppressive? Is there a possibility of Clipper Miller Bs in this pattern? thanks

Remember when we thought this might retrograde towards us? It was a brief thought, but here are some WebCams from Sydney Nova Scotia. https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/north-sydney-nova-scotia-ca

I understand what you are saying, and we’ve been burned a lot the last couple of years. It just doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of Contra indications right now. If there were the qanon omega and Papi would be posting those 300 hour plus operational charts. The sense I get from reading the meteorologists is that the large scale forces that are creating the upcoming pattern set up to force a good pattern. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of wiggle room. The pattern progression globally in other words, is leading us in this good direction. First snow is popping up on my weather underground app for the 11th 12/13.