mahk_webstah

Weather underground seems to be bumping the snow toes up a bit for tonight, but that might just be off of one model run or something

GYX continues not interested in wintry south of foothills Saturday A cold front crosses the Friday night with high pressure building to the north of the area Saturday. This high pressure will be in a favorable position for cold air damming ahead of the next system that approaches from the Great Lakes. The big forecast question at this time is how much cold air can work back into the area before precipitation likely breaks out by Saturday evening. Ensembles generally agree that temperatures will remain above freezing across southern NH and the coastal plain of Maine resulting in mostly rain event for these areas into Sunday. From the foothills northward precipitation types become more complex given the potential CAD and several ensemble members suggesting a secondary low more form in the Gulf of Maine. Have mainly stuck with the NBM which brings mostly snow from the mountains northward, however it should be noted that several ensemble members suggest that a change to rain is possible well north of the Canadian Border. Across the interior/foothills precipitation may waver between snow/mix/rain depending on the development of a secondary low in the Gulf of Maine. Precipitation tapers off Sunday afternoon with a shot of much colder air building in to start the work week. The main take away is that difficult travel will be possible Saturday night through Sunday mainly from the foothills northward.

DT is honking

In the end 2-3 for me and 3-5 for you seems right.

The colder trend for the weekend has not made it into my forecast

Then it is probably right

maybe a bit of snow and then the FZ. Another very solid layer of pack before the real good stuff comes mid month. I think that is coming by the way. The change of the pattern should do the trick for at least one sizable storm.

Funny wording in the zones tonight. Snow heavy at times, accumulations 1"

Does this mean we snow on Saturday/Saturday night?

Including thru Wednesday I’m thinking 3-6

Good for us, but challenging New York City and south. I’m thinking. But with the strength of cold this year I think New York City gets some good outcomes.

Our mashed potatoes and gravy

I’m kinda expecting one to 2 inches Monday afternoon and evening and then 2 to 4 Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. I hope those aren’t unrealistic expectations. It happens that way then the snow pack is back to being pretty nice again.

Very light snow and small flakes here but everything is starting to get a bit of a coating on it

Maybe an inch here Monday afternoon, 2 to 4 Tuesday night and Wednesday with 3 to 6 a real possibility, then a Friday Saturday rain or maybe mixed system. Then next week we’re rocking and rolling. Our rock solid pack isn’t going anywhere, but hopefully Friday and Saturday will clear the ice off the driveway.

You know more than me Scott. I figure 2-4” tues pm Wednesday maybe ends as drizzle. Then it warms up a bit but maybe it not too much. Then the week of the 11th gets interesting. That’s my takeaway. The hint towards a colder trend in 0z guidance? I don’t look at models I just read others’ interpretations.

From GYX ASOUT .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Evening Update... No notable deviation from the NBM tonight, but we will be keeping a closer eye on a system for Wednesday. Monday starts the week on a cold note with highs in the teens to low 20s. Scattered snow showers are possible Monday night as a warm front lifts through the area, marking the start of a warming trend for midweek. Models have been consistently showing a substantial warm up for mid to late week, but recent runs from the Euro, and especially the Euro AI put this into more question. They have started to show a round of wintry precip for Wednesday with colder air in place, and have a more muted warm up through the end of the week. Other models have just started to show this trend on the latest 00z runs for the first time. We`ll have to see if this trend continues, but with the Euro family often leading the pack it looks increasingly likely that the forecast will be trending cooler for mid to late next week.

When we start to hear reports of how the wolf has come back to New England and no one really understands why the wolves are menacing meteorologists

Well Wunderground has added 1” for Monday night. Maybe this can ramp up a bit

Perhaps not. I mean sure for the next 5 to 7 days maybe probably. But after that, maybe not so boring.

Just in time for your return! You only missed a good squall.

Some years ago, I did a three day weekend in Redfield at a resort for cross-country skiing called Salmon Hills. It was late season, but there was a a lot of snow on the ground and some good lake affect falling. Very fun and very wilderness feeling.

poor Scott. best squalls in years and all gone when he gets back.

thats a bold guess

Maybe