Nothing like being in the middle of a workout when the modelling is suddenly getting better. I was on the elliptical for the “ain’t happening James” storm model drama. Best cardio workout ever.
This makes a lot of logical sense to me. Even though I don’t have any expertise, you’ve explained it in a way that makes intuitive sense. If I had to pick the AI versus traditional models at this point, I would choose the traditional models.
Today is Wednesday and the storm is Sunday Monday right? So if we step back from the extremes and the overreactions to one run, then isn’t the modeling telling us that this set up has high ceiling potential. And it’s trending slowly better across the suite of models. That just means that the chance a significant snowstorm for at least some of us is increasing a bit.
The fact that this comes back onto modeling is not a big surprise as that happens a lot over the years. The fact that it’s the GFS that had it originally and then totally lost it and is now bringing it back as a blizzard, which says to me that there’s a more than 50% chance that this will be a storm of some significance. Definitely the biggest euro run of the last few days.
I was in Philly for that. It was miserable. And I came home to an ugly old snow pack. The good news is,It will snow more and I don’t have to experience of watching that team play. They weren’t fun this year.