mahk_webstah

Absolutely I understand that. I just think in general, and I’m not talking about you because you are probably the most grounded person in here, we tend to live in the future.

But as you know, the next 7 to 9 days haven’t played out yet

Although WPC still has some risk of storm 18-19th

Except for a bit of rain and snow midweek, all precipitation gone from 10 day. Pretty much the worst case scenario from where this looked to be headed. Quite a surprise to me tbh. Cold and dry sucks. Much prefer cutter to wipe it clean and be warmer outside. otoh this will probably change but seems like quite a fail for mid range models. Or maybe just a perceptual bias based on large number of models and frequency of model runs?

Inland runner? I think that’s what the comments seemed indicate. It’ll change.

For what

It’s kind of cool that there’s so much uncertainty. Given the persistent weak solutions, I would have to think it will be weak. But sometimes these things have a way of returning to what they were showing initially. Probably the second system is going to be better. The CPC flagged that potential a couple of days ago and if it’s a swfe it’s probably a lot less complicated

It might be better to have this thread as a period of interest between the 15th and the 18th

The conversation is manageable now in the main thread, but I think we actually should start a storm thread tomorrow if it still looks like a viable threat between the 15th and 19th. This would separate the discussion into what might be happening in the short term and then also in the post January 20 period which is interesting in itself

We playin

On or just inside BM which means good for all as it looks positioned to comea north enough

I think it was the storm right near the end of November or beginning of December where the GFS led the way from the mid range. The euro took a long time to get on board, remember?

The way the models have been moving around and the fact that we’re in the midst of a big pattern change I wouldn’t sell anything at this point. There’s lots of possibilities and I bet they’re at least a moderate storm for most of New England between the 15th and the 20th.

Pics

Wpc overnight does have a low almost on cape cod for the 15th

I won’t go there

With the systems in a medium to long range me it’s not about what it looks like. In a particular moment in time it’s more about the way things are trending. It seems like it’s trending in a gooddirection, but of course that may not continue. But I think we’re gonna get some snow storms in the next few weeks just based on both the availability, cold air and what models seem to be signaling as a more active storm track.

I think the guy is just saying that he thinks the pattern is going to be more conducive to East Coast storms. We’ll see if that’s true or not.

Yes, that is my main concern with this guy. Not his idea, what’s the next couple of weeks will render verdict for. I don’t like the style of writing where someone creates a false strawman and then disagrees with it. That’s incredibly common these days, particularly in our political discourse. But everything is political now.

Looks like there will be storms over the next few weeks but who knows who does best.

GYX going colder for Saturday night.

I’ve been hearing this for three days, but it doesn’t seem to be translating in any significant way into the forecast yet. The weather underground does seem to look a little icy and snow here for Saturday, but I don’t think the national weather service is there yet

What about that precip to our south and west? I don’t think it’s forecast to get up here, but it looks like some of it might. very small flakes or freezing drizzle right now

Weather underground seems to be bumping the snow toes up a bit for tonight, but that might just be off of one model run or something

GYX continues not interested in wintry south of foothills Saturday A cold front crosses the Friday night with high pressure building to the north of the area Saturday. This high pressure will be in a favorable position for cold air damming ahead of the next system that approaches from the Great Lakes. The big forecast question at this time is how much cold air can work back into the area before precipitation likely breaks out by Saturday evening. Ensembles generally agree that temperatures will remain above freezing across southern NH and the coastal plain of Maine resulting in mostly rain event for these areas into Sunday. From the foothills northward precipitation types become more complex given the potential CAD and several ensemble members suggesting a secondary low more form in the Gulf of Maine. Have mainly stuck with the NBM which brings mostly snow from the mountains northward, however it should be noted that several ensemble members suggest that a change to rain is possible well north of the Canadian Border. Across the interior/foothills precipitation may waver between snow/mix/rain depending on the development of a secondary low in the Gulf of Maine. Precipitation tapers off Sunday afternoon with a shot of much colder air building in to start the work week. The main take away is that difficult travel will be possible Saturday night through Sunday mainly from the foothills northward.