mahk_webstah

Ummmm, You get your girlfriend to change her birthday to Tuesday

I don't expect a major storm up here Sunday-Monday. But it will be fun to watch it creep north and get the MA and SNE weenies a good time. We'll likely get ours...

Interesting little snippet from GYX. This happened a few years ago and dumped 4 on me and 7 on Dendrite. Still under the influence of a trough, Arctic air will pour in behind the front Tuesday making for a mostly dry and cold day. The morning looks to start mostly clear as high pressure begins to work its way into the region, but an additional passing shortwave may add some clouds during the afternoon. It is also worth noting that strong lake effect dynamics will be ongoing to our west and the CAMs are beginning to suggest a ribbon may be able to stretch its way across central New Hampshire and even into Southern Maine. I have kept it out of the forecast for now as these can be finicky and it wouldn;t have a large footprint, but it is something to keep an eye on if your evening commute takes you north on 93 or 95 through these areas.

Good advice. Also, chant "Come to Papa" every 6 hours.

And that’s before the next storm in the series

Get it all out now.

As someone who lived in Philly for many years, I think you should be getting pretty excited about this storm. You know it’ll probably trend north at least some extent, but not enough to hurt you guys. For us in NH we’re probably on the northern fringe, but these things do tend to come north. I grew up just south of Dover and if I lived there right now, I’d be very excited.

Gfs overdoes that sometimes

God, I love that place! Best beach on the east coast of the US and just picturesque New England. Said hello HW there when he came in his high speedboat grabbing lunch.

All you needed to do is get some rest and look what happened

Huge day win for most of the forum! Especially considering where we were psychologically about 48 to 72 hours ago

Didn’t think I was going to have to pull the tractor out for this two day event. I think I’ve got about 6 inches of fluff between these two storms. Definitely a win for a long lasting snow pack, and some insulation. Hopefully we don’t hit 15 below and ruin the peaches. In fact, if that cold that is model just backs off a little bit it’ll probably let that storm run up here closer.

I was in Philly for that storm and it was tremendous. A lot of small flakes and Arctic sand though but still 18 inches with a lot of sleet at the end on top of that. But I think there was some hugely anomalously jet that was like five standard deviations above normal or something.

What do you mean by lighting up like a Christmas tree?

Fair enough. I’m just saying I feel like I’ve seen this scenario play out many times and it almost always trends north. But not always. So I’m not really taking anything so to speak. It just seems that there are some signals that this will trend north.

I didn’t expect to wake up to accumulating snow. It’s light, but I imagine it’s really high ratio fluff because the radar is not impressive at all. looks like the snow is still going nicely in southeast New England

Suppression risk is high, but we’re five or six days out now so don’t we take the AI models significantly further north output seriously?

Don’t know what I have but steady light accumulating snow is still going. Probably two more inches overnight, but I have to go outside.

You have to think this comes north substantially. Might be on the northern fringe up here but in the end, I bet it’s moderate to heavy all the way from central New England down through DC. I realize that suppression is real and that that could happen but over running trends north usually especially in large scale over running set ups.

Best stuff moving into scooterville

This is one of the most ironic comments in the history of the board

I thought you were snowing today? I hope you get five or 6 inches tonight. Fingers crossed.

Absolutely but for meteorologists, and for very skilled and knowledgeable hobbies like yourself, you want to know which models to use at what point and in what context. So if that’s where the AI models are now then that’s where they are.

Maybe that’s the take away. Good with the pattern in the medium range but not great with the details in the short range. If that’s the case, that would be a good thing to know going forward.

I was just about to post that it looks to me like the radar down in the mid Atlantic is heading more northeast. I’m sure it will still give a good snowstorm to southeast New England but I don’t think I’m getting one to 3 inches up here unless there’s some sort of inverted trough.