mahk_webstah

Oh, I think you’re right. But I think it’s not just weenies who assume that the top range of a forecast is what will verify. The general public I think falls into that trap.

Well, you know a lot more than I do lol. Maybe 10 to 20 would’ve been better.

You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting. if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow.

With consistent QPF over 1 inch and some case? And ratio is projected to be quite high due to a frigid air mass and very deep DGZ. Most models have had this for Southern New England at least for two days now, right?

Yes, it does. It’s kind of hard to believe given where this was three days ago. Now we see if we can trend to a stronger coastal that might put a heavy band somewhere up around you or me. But even if that doesn’t happen, if we get those projected ratios and the snow is falling in the low single digits temperatures that’s really gonna be something

The ones that just slowly get better and better as we get to start time are the best. But on the other hand, this thing is still three days away, which seems like forever.

You’re gonna have helluva pack

And that’s 10:1 so add at least 20% and maybe up to 50%

LBChickens?

I just have to check if you’re being real here or are you being a parody of yourself? Clarity would be helpful in these stressful times.

I’m confused at how many storms are being modeled. So we have this upcoming one Sunday Monday then do we have another one Thursday and then a third one on Sunday

This week is an incredible test of these various model suites and AI

I know we have to discuss what’s right in front of us, but with the potential for later next week there could be a corridor that maxes is out on both storms. Maybe something like Philly to Boston or maybe just Philly to New York. snow up to thy knickers

Well, yeah, but his whining is much less annoying than most whining.

WPC also has the caution flags, but the consensus in the models in this trend, and in the ensembles as well is pretty convincing. But as you’ve said a couple days ago, this could trend back south. but it also seems that the structure of the storm is changing and that the strong over running pushes what creates a big mid Atlantic snow and then a secondary development gives the New England snow.

-8. I wonder if we get that little drop and temperature just as the sun starts to come up. Coldest morning of the winter. So far but probably not for long.

Mirage caution flags

Have we ever had a Richmond to Montreal to Halifax KU?

When I woke up to pee and saw all the pages I knew. WPC is a little skeptical though Mirage? So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we dont see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent.

The fact that a reputable model is getting close to double figures up this way is remarkable. Didn’t expect that for another day or two maybe but apparently the EPS is giving us that.

ZOOM would be more fun because then people could post maps and model output etc

I think this is a useful analysis because I tend to think that when they amp up, they move north and that is obviously not always the case. But just as someone who’s been watching the storms for four decades I think this will end up north of the baseline and southern New England will probably get a 6 inch plus snowstorm.

Ummmm, You get your girlfriend to change her birthday to Tuesday

I don't expect a major storm up here Sunday-Monday. But it will be fun to watch it creep north and get the MA and SNE weenies a good time. We'll likely get ours...

Interesting little snippet from GYX. This happened a few years ago and dumped 4 on me and 7 on Dendrite. Still under the influence of a trough, Arctic air will pour in behind the front Tuesday making for a mostly dry and cold day. The morning looks to start mostly clear as high pressure begins to work its way into the region, but an additional passing shortwave may add some clouds during the afternoon. It is also worth noting that strong lake effect dynamics will be ongoing to our west and the CAMs are beginning to suggest a ribbon may be able to stretch its way across central New Hampshire and even into Southern Maine. I have kept it out of the forecast for now as these can be finicky and it wouldn;t have a large footprint, but it is something to keep an eye on if your evening commute takes you north on 93 or 95 through these areas.