mahk_webstah

DC to QC fredericksburg to Fredericton Annapolis to Machias region wide in a broad way

Don’t know that I’ve seen a mean like this up here. That is astounding. 24+

The euro has had a strong signal for days on this. My wunderground snow forecast has always been between five and 8 inches. Now it’s at 7.1. The Tuesday signal has jumped around wildly between two and 8 inches.

A miller B or Swfe redeveloper with nothing to slow it down is probably capped at 6-10 maybe lollies 12 I would think. this isn’t supposed to be the season’s big storm. It’s supposed to be the first good region wide event with high-end advisories and low and warnings that opens the gate to a good stretch which probably will include one larger storm I would think or two.

A nice tidbit from GYX. When banding is mentioned it’s usually a good thing. Guidance is in good agreement for the next system this weekend, and have raised PoPs to go along with this. Thing to watch as this event nears the mid to near term later is where banding may develop to possibly enhance snowfall. For now the fgen band appears to progress north, but if the storm takes a flatter track, this may linger or pivot a bit longer. Overall, ensembles show good confidence in another measurable snow event, but amounts will need refinement over the coming days.

That’s why, even though those really cold Swfe only produce 12:1 at best

Good

Well but maybe ratios are better for the 1st couple hours? Super cold at the start although I know ratios aren’t necessarily about the air temperature. but 3” is a win

Grabbed from MA forum. Alleviates suppression concern for early week. Who is gonna start the thread for what will be 3rd and most widespread event over a 6 day period?! We are starting a great run.

That would be a good outcome for here, especially given that Sunday might be a little beefier.

Just a matter of how far north the good stuff gets.

overrunner like PD2? How anomalous is the jet? That was a great storm in Philly

It is the most perfect thread title ever. Perfect. Everyone knows and they’re saying there’s never been one as great as this one.

I think we need to decide who’s gonna fire up the February 12-13 thread. A week out

Be nice if we get it to slow down. But that might be for next week

But talking is SECsy

Redeveloper? high end advisory low end warning for most of the region was what I am envisioning in the title of the thread. The kickoff/gate opener to a nice run that follows

Get back in here and clean up your mess!

I had thought originally when I started this thread that this was a redeveloper, not just a straight warm air advection Southwest flow thing. You know, sometimes they lose the original idea, but then come back to it as it gets closer.

48” in less than 12 hours is what danbury New Hampshire had in that December 2020 storm. We got most of our 28 inches in about a six hour period. I think Brian got 34 inches in the storm and Danbury is another 10 miles north if that.

One of the things I watch overtime is the snow totals in the 10 day on Wunderground. I think it’s some sort of compilation of models so it does give you a good sense of trends. For Thursday it’s almost always been between four and 5 inches and it is still there at 4.6. For Sunday it’s gone anywhere from 5 to 7 inches and right now it’s at 5.4. to me, this shows some caution with Sunday, however, there should still should be a solid storm. I think we will vacillate until perhaps Wednesday night or Thursday What’s been interesting about next Tuesday and Wednesday, for what it’s worth, is that it suddenly has jumped to almost 7 inches From about 3 inches overnight.

Less risky when your snowpack is what ours will be by Monday. And with more cold looming

Back to back 3-6 in 3 days is basically 6-12

That is the risk especially for SNE

Well it’s only Tuesday morning