mahk_webstah

I’m confused at how many storms are being modeled. So we have this upcoming one Sunday Monday then do we have another one Thursday and then a third one on Sunday

This week is an incredible test of these various model suites and AI

I know we have to discuss what’s right in front of us, but with the potential for later next week there could be a corridor that maxes is out on both storms. Maybe something like Philly to Boston or maybe just Philly to New York. snow up to thy knickers

Well, yeah, but his whining is much less annoying than most whining.

WPC also has the caution flags, but the consensus in the models in this trend, and in the ensembles as well is pretty convincing. But as you’ve said a couple days ago, this could trend back south. but it also seems that the structure of the storm is changing and that the strong over running pushes what creates a big mid Atlantic snow and then a secondary development gives the New England snow.

-8. I wonder if we get that little drop and temperature just as the sun starts to come up. Coldest morning of the winter. So far but probably not for long.

Mirage caution flags

Have we ever had a Richmond to Montreal to Halifax KU?

When I woke up to pee and saw all the pages I knew. WPC is a little skeptical though Mirage? So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we dont see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent.

The fact that a reputable model is getting close to double figures up this way is remarkable. Didn’t expect that for another day or two maybe but apparently the EPS is giving us that.

ZOOM would be more fun because then people could post maps and model output etc

I think this is a useful analysis because I tend to think that when they amp up, they move north and that is obviously not always the case. But just as someone who’s been watching the storms for four decades I think this will end up north of the baseline and southern New England will probably get a 6 inch plus snowstorm.

Ummmm, You get your girlfriend to change her birthday to Tuesday

I don't expect a major storm up here Sunday-Monday. But it will be fun to watch it creep north and get the MA and SNE weenies a good time. We'll likely get ours...

Interesting little snippet from GYX. This happened a few years ago and dumped 4 on me and 7 on Dendrite. Still under the influence of a trough, Arctic air will pour in behind the front Tuesday making for a mostly dry and cold day. The morning looks to start mostly clear as high pressure begins to work its way into the region, but an additional passing shortwave may add some clouds during the afternoon. It is also worth noting that strong lake effect dynamics will be ongoing to our west and the CAMs are beginning to suggest a ribbon may be able to stretch its way across central New Hampshire and even into Southern Maine. I have kept it out of the forecast for now as these can be finicky and it wouldn;t have a large footprint, but it is something to keep an eye on if your evening commute takes you north on 93 or 95 through these areas.

Good advice. Also, chant "Come to Papa" every 6 hours.

And that’s before the next storm in the series

Get it all out now.

As someone who lived in Philly for many years, I think you should be getting pretty excited about this storm. You know it’ll probably trend north at least some extent, but not enough to hurt you guys. For us in NH we’re probably on the northern fringe, but these things do tend to come north. I grew up just south of Dover and if I lived there right now, I’d be very excited.

Gfs overdoes that sometimes

God, I love that place! Best beach on the east coast of the US and just picturesque New England. Said hello HW there when he came in his high speedboat grabbing lunch.

All you needed to do is get some rest and look what happened

Huge day win for most of the forum! Especially considering where we were psychologically about 48 to 72 hours ago

Didn’t think I was going to have to pull the tractor out for this two day event. I think I’ve got about 6 inches of fluff between these two storms. Definitely a win for a long lasting snow pack, and some insulation. Hopefully we don’t hit 15 below and ruin the peaches. In fact, if that cold that is model just backs off a little bit it’ll probably let that storm run up here closer.

I was in Philly for that storm and it was tremendous. A lot of small flakes and Arctic sand though but still 18 inches with a lot of sleet at the end on top of that. But I think there was some hugely anomalously jet that was like five standard deviations above normal or something.