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mahk_webstah

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Everything posted by mahk_webstah

  1. mahk_webstah
    Today is Wednesday and the storm is Sunday Monday right? So if we step back from the extremes and the overreactions to one run, then isn’t the modeling telling us that this set up has high ceiling potential. And it’s trending slowly better across the suite of models. That just means that the chance a significant snowstorm for at least some of us is increasing a bit.
  2. mahk_webstah
    Breathe
  3. mahk_webstah
    The GFS led on first storm of the season and it took the euro a while to catch up
  4. mahk_webstah
    The fact that this comes back onto modeling is not a big surprise as that happens a lot over the years. The fact that it’s the GFS that had it originally and then totally lost it and is now bringing it back as a blizzard, which says to me that there’s a more than 50% chance that this will be a storm of some significance. Definitely the biggest euro run of the last few days.
  5. mahk_webstah
    weather weenie is sometimes a literal phrase.
  6. mahk_webstah
    Could be a situation where something big shows up on models, then gets iffy, then slowly comes back. Happens a lot.
  7. mahk_webstah
    I was in Philly for that. It was miserable. And I came home to an ugly old snow pack. The good news is,It will snow more and I don’t have to experience of watching that team play. They weren’t fun this year.
  8. mahk_webstah
    I tend to get excited pretty easily about these things, but I’m having no excitement about one 18Z model run
  9. mahk_webstah
    Absolutely I understand that. I just think in general, and I’m not talking about you because you are probably the most grounded person in here, we tend to live in the future.
  10. mahk_webstah
    But as you know, the next 7 to 9 days haven’t played out yet
  11. mahk_webstah
    Although WPC still has some risk of storm 18-19th
  12. mahk_webstah
    Except for a bit of rain and snow midweek, all precipitation gone from 10 day. Pretty much the worst case scenario from where this looked to be headed. Quite a surprise to me tbh. Cold and dry sucks. Much prefer cutter to wipe it clean and be warmer outside. otoh this will probably change but seems like quite a fail for mid range models. Or maybe just a perceptual bias based on large number of models and frequency of model runs?
  13. mahk_webstah
    Inland runner? I think that’s what the comments seemed indicate. It’ll change.
  14. mahk_webstah
    For what
  15. mahk_webstah
    It’s kind of cool that there’s so much uncertainty. Given the persistent weak solutions, I would have to think it will be weak. But sometimes these things have a way of returning to what they were showing initially. Probably the second system is going to be better. The CPC flagged that potential a couple of days ago and if it’s a swfe it’s probably a lot less complicated
  16. mahk_webstah
    It might be better to have this thread as a period of interest between the 15th and the 18th
  17. mahk_webstah
    The conversation is manageable now in the main thread, but I think we actually should start a storm thread tomorrow if it still looks like a viable threat between the 15th and 19th. This would separate the discussion into what might be happening in the short term and then also in the post January 20 period which is interesting in itself
  18. mahk_webstah
    We playin
  19. mahk_webstah
    On or just inside BM which means good for all as it looks positioned to comea north enough
  20. mahk_webstah
    I think it was the storm right near the end of November or beginning of December where the GFS led the way from the mid range. The euro took a long time to get on board, remember?
  21. mahk_webstah
    The way the models have been moving around and the fact that we’re in the midst of a big pattern change I wouldn’t sell anything at this point. There’s lots of possibilities and I bet they’re at least a moderate storm for most of New England between the 15th and the 20th.
  22. mahk_webstah
    Pics
  23. mahk_webstah
    Wpc overnight does have a low almost on cape cod for the 15th
  24. mahk_webstah
    I won’t go there
  25. mahk_webstah
    With the systems in a medium to long range me it’s not about what it looks like. In a particular moment in time it’s more about the way things are trending. It seems like it’s trending in a gooddirection, but of course that may not continue. But I think we’re gonna get some snow storms in the next few weeks just based on both the availability, cold air and what models seem to be signaling as a more active storm track.
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