mahk_webstah

we need another tick

snow cover non-existent in Concord, patchy but full in the woods in Boscawen exit 17. Further n and w of exit 17 including Brian I believe is full snow cover. Big gradient with those wet snow/mixed events.

Ok I'm listening.

I guess I'm expecting it to trend better so I am set up for a disappointment probably.

I agree....I'm just postulating that the trends in the larger features might be suggestive of a bit of a south trend on this. 4+ would be decent but 6+ would be a real win.

hopefully the euro continues this trend. does the bigger picture seem to support a south trend?

You’ve been traveling a lot less lately. I appreciate the change. Happy Sunday.

Look, obviously the truth is I don’t know much but I have seen these things trend in a good direction when there was a prior indication of a potentially good outcome. Also given that the trend is towards the negative ao and phase seven, and I think that starts to happen this week, I think it is somewhat realistic to see a trend back in a better direction at least a little bit.

Absolutely as yesterday southern new England was in the game. But as we know sometimes these things trend one way for a couple days and then verification goes back a bit towards what some of the earlier thinking was. That might happen here at least I hope

I’m not convinced but I might be depending on this afternoons rmodeli runs

I am not in far NNE and my over under is 4

If major is 6+ over or not too far north of me then I’d say yes that. Was and is the hope

So many have said that the models will struggle during this period. It is helpful to read the perspective of someone like Don and also Ray during these troubling times in the model tracking world. We must become zen-like

If it intensifies it would get cold enough maybe? Perhaps models come back to that idea

From GYX What`s new is the consensus that another wave drops down within the core of the upper trough and curls around southern New England and into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It will be strengthening as it does so and could bring a more substantial round of precipitation to the area. One complicating factor here is that the earlier warm advection will leave a relatively warm air mass in place Tuesday night with temperatures likely near or just above freezing at times. It seems likely that as the low winds up we will get cold air pulled in from the north at the surface (and from the west aloft) with perhaps a developing coastal front segmenting off the warmer air. So while for the most part this next wave should bring snowfall, there could be areas that see some rain as well, especially near the coast. Snowfall amounts could exceed warning criteria in some areas, though confidence on this is still too low for a Winter Storm Watch. Will let this new consensus solidify a bit before taking that step. For now the best snowfall amounts would be over interior western Maine and northern New Hampshire where the best banding may occur between the strengthening surface low and the advancing upper low.

Sleet and 30 here tho looks light

That is my absolute favorite kind of event outside of a 2’ mauling blizzard. Reminds me of mid to late December 2008. Snow and then very light light snow for a day and then more snow. That one gave over 2 feet so I’m not expecting that but 6 to 12 or maybe a bit more seems very doable and will be a great three days

I like Ekster's GYX discussion. And I like the idea of 2 moderate snowfalls in a 36 hour period with no significant wind. Will be fun to walk in, look at, and my long driveway up the hill won't be constantly drifted over....

The question is whether the patterns supports the miller b idea coming back. I think the miller b ideas was related to the strength of the confluence to the ne, yes? If that has weakened then the pacific jet fast flow will win.

I wasn't even thinking about this weeknd so it is cool to have something to look at in the afternoon runs.

Oh wow. So MHT would be heavy rain? And us are barely snow, but siignificant? We are talking about this weekend right? Not next MonTues?

more than .25qpf very cool that the Euro has it as snow - how much?

A couple of days though didn’t it look more juiced? Maybe it will trend back in that direction. I think it also had a look of a slow moving system but that seems to be off the table. Gyx says 12 hours and all waa.

But it seems debatable whether any precipitation of significance gets up here, yes?

Regarding early next week, it seems the 50-50 low inducing ridging to it's north. I assume this is a transient ridge and that the NAO block doesn't get going until later in the month? But it does look like something that would slow the flow down as it doesn't seem that there is anything upstream that would push this along - is that right? Thanks.