mahk_webstah

Yeah when this weird shite starts happening it never ends well, especially us on the margin

You’re from Southie- be careful what you say to Papi!

I guess on Thursday will have to see whether there’s white smoke coming up from the chimney in the Vatican

that looks like the 700mb RH chart from the EC that someone put up a couple of hours ago.

clearly not a good series of runs for cne nne crowd. my hope is reduced as are my expectations. I have to remind myself it is monday afternoon and the storm starts wed late afternoon down in sne. still a ways to go.

does that imply a deform band from southern maine back to me, with subsidence down towards the Mass border and then another band around the pike and towards the south coast?

unless its sand

Eps better than op

That’s gotten shittier up here, now I see why Brian is closing shades

Sounds right. An Airbnb cabin in a spot that does well in nor’easters . And with a good hiking trail and cute town nearby. Hell you could even go to New Hope or Lambertville and be able to walk around

It could trend North a little bit more and that would help a lot of us except for maybe James. In my view anything over 5”is a win up here. Gonna be a blast for you guys

Did it trend north?

I am more hopeful about that than usual. That is the weenie pattern recognition I mentioned yesterday. The weenies don’t always have the deep scientific knowledge but we follow these things so closely that we have a sense of what usually happens.

We patienting

I was in the jackpot in 79. I grew up in Dover Delaware and we got 25 inches and a pretty awesome 5 in./h. And drifting. It was awesome awesome awesome. And it came after the blizzard of 78 the year before so I was about 15 years old I was totally hookedI

I’ve been feeling this way for 2 days, just based on weenie pattern recognition. But I think we’ll know in the morning or maybe 12z. That being said I over under number is 5 inches. Anything over 5 inches is a win in anything under sucks

I appreciate that you are using reasoning in your thought processes. I just feel like I’ve seen so many of these situations over the year particularly this far out, that it just starts to trend a little bit then a little more further north. Unless there is an overriding truly dominant feature to shove everything east. It doesn’t seem to me that there’s enough going on up north to shove this east but the short wave sampling later tonight will tell us a lot because in order for it to come norththe sw does have to be strong it would seem

Even with the 5050

I will only cave when I see 12z tomorrow

from Walt Drag in the NYC forum re the NAM (his comments bolded at bottom): Report post Posted 21 minutes ago Absolutely! The questions continue going forward, will it hold? I took a look at the 500MB pattern at 84 hours...modeling a 140 kt jet up over Quebec Wednesday evening and plenty of sw flow back to OHIO at 500MB. I'm pretty sure this says northern solution.

seems like a reasonable answer

I dunno, but it doesn't seem like overwhelming blocking. 1035 in Quebec is strong but.... Seems like the keys for us up here are: 1. strong shortwave will tend to try to tuck and will be muscular pushing north. wasn't there a 1050 high on top of '78? 2. if things are on the slower side, more time for the 50-50 to move since it isn't a stuck feature. I don't think a 1035 without a stationery 50-50 and a strong GL block is enough to just shove it out. However, I am weeniologist...

That is what it feels like. We’ll probably know when we wake up tomorrow, though some of will know as they sit on the can at 2am, spouses seeing the weenie cell phone glow from under the bathroom door.

And god knows you’ll find a way to get some far NW deformation band followed by upslope and then 4 inches of powder from a moose fart. but it seems there is a real chance for further north action. I have 5 inches as my over under right now.

It’s all about trading PFs Fanny for James’s