NavarreDon

My brother outside of Glenville has a solid inch so he’s on par with you! .

Morning guys, just wanted to say a couple things. Think this is going to be a decent event for some of you. It seems like some are apprehensive. Anyone closer to the 85 corridor has the right to be. If you’re up in the Mnts try to take emotions out of what you are or are not seeing. Use technology and synoptics. If your not the best model reader lean on GSP’s AFD’s they are a wealth of knowledge and have pretty much everything that’s been happening in print with the reasons why. With all the micro climates up there you’re going to have the usual over & under achievers. But don’t rush to judgment based on emotion. Use the tools at hand to understand what’s happening and why. Sorry for the rant & I hope all of you overachieve!!! .

Hello Mnt & Foothill peeps! I see we’re in the pre storm boom or bust excitement phase. I really like the look of this system. In GSP’s afternoon disco they speak of the system currently in Texas being better organized than modeled. Certainly won’t be surprised to see some places upgraded overnight. As usual there will be over & under performers. Enjoy the now though because it’s a big part of the fun! Good luck to all of you. .

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Wind and storms are ripping onshore from the gulf down here in the Panhandle. Tons of energy & fuel for you guys upstream. Be safe & alert today! .

Surprised this isn't getting more attention: Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread from the northeast Gulf Coast this morning to the Carolinas by early evening. Damaging winds could be common with this activity, and a few tornadoes are also possible. ...Northeast Gulf Coast to the Carolinas... Strong low-latitude trough is beginning to shift east across the Big Bend of TX/northeast Mexico as a pronounced mid-level speed max approaches the base of this feature. By mid day, 500mb speed max in excess of 100kt will translate into the lower MS Valley, then strengthen to near 140kt over the Carolinas by 27/12z. In response, intense 12hr mid-level height falls (200m) will spread across the northern Gulf States into the western Carolinas. LLJ is forecast to strengthen across the northern Gulf Basin into southern AL by sunrise Thursday. This will encourage boundary-layer moistening with upper 60s surface dew points expected to advance inland across southern AL/GA, with near 70F dew points across the FL Panhandle. This moistening will be more than adequate for substantial SBCAPE ahead of the surging cold front. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front at the start of the period. As large-scale forcing approaches this region, a sharpening band of frontal convection should evolve. Given the strengthening wind fields there is increasing confidence that a potentially damaging squall line will race northeast across the ENH Risk area. In addition, a few pre-squall line supercells may also develop as minimal forcing will be needed to initiate convection. Tornado threat will be most concentrated with these more discrete structures, though embedded squall-line circulations are also expected given the shear. A well organized squall line should progress across GA/northern FL into the Carolinas during the evening hours. This linear MCS should advance off the NC Coast shortly after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/06/2020

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MOB with a great disco on our area down here! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MOB&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .

Thoughts? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Delete if already posted. .

I realize we're all big boys & girls with the capability to find it own our own but the ST disco from GSP is well......simply stunning! It needs to be posted for posterity. Even a mention of the B word! .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 355 AM EST Thursday: High confidence that a nearly ideal synoptic set up for widespread and significant winter weather will commence across the forecast area this weekend and possibly continue into early next week. The highest in significant winter weather is placed across the mountains foothills and NC Piedmont along and north of I-40 where snow is expected to be the dominant precipitation type, although periods of sleet and freezing rain are also likely, especially outside of the mountains. Moderate confidence for significant winter weather exists in the SC/NC Piedmont along and north of I-85 and south of I-40 mainly east of I- 25. South of I-85 is not out of the woods with periods of moderate to heavy ice and/or snow possible, but rain is expected to mix in most often here, likely limiting ice/snow accumulations and related impacts. The expected overall synoptic setup has not really changed much for several days, although model guidance has fairly uniformly tracked track of the winter storm a bit further south and therefore leading to snow and mixed precip types becoming more likely a bit further south. A key to the upcoming winter storm is that cold air will be locked in place across the region as confluence aloft ahead of the system maintains a 1030+ mb W-E elongated sfc high pressure system to our north with cold air damming (CAD) persisting through most of the event. Good model consensus shows sfc low pressure riding along the fringe of the strong high, initially along the Gulf Coast Saturday before riding along or just off the Southeast Coastline while intensifying Sunday. This setup will bring light to moderate precip overspreading much of the sometime Saturday afternoon or evening before becoming heavy at times overnight into Sunday. The latest NAM indicates very dry air courtesy of the CAD possibly delaying precip onset, especially across NC foothills, Piedmont and northern mountains. A strong low level jet of 40+ kt is expected to push through the region Sunday bring breezy conditions to many location and gusty winds to the mountains above 3K or 4K feet where wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely. This combined with period of heavy snow may support at least brief blizzard conditions, especially across east facing mountains. The strong low level jet will also support an elevated (700-800mb), but now somewhat cooler warm nose which will likely increase the icing threat which model guidance and climatology would suggest would change somewhere between the I-85 and I-40 corridors, lasting at least 3-6 hours. The timing of the change over is likely sometime late Sunday night though early evening and would like be limited across the mountains, although sleet and freezing rain may mix in at times during this period, especially south of I-40. The CAD will likely gradually dissipate late Sunday into Monday but be replaced by cold air filtering in behind the storm. Any ice should be large over during this time with snow the predominate type area-wide, except during the afternoon when rain may mix in at times outside of the mountains mainly into the Upstate of SC and northeast GA. A deformation zone with banding precip is possible during this time, but there is still some uncertainly where exactly sets up and how much precipitation we may see. The bottom line is the additional snow is possible just about anywhere during this time. Melted snow/ice or liquid precip storm total amounts continue to be around 2 inches across most of the forecast area with local amounts approaching 3 inches possible south of I-85 and across higher east facing mountains due to upslope enhancement. Early estimates continue to place snow amounts between 10 and 20 inches across the mountains, foothills Piedmont northwest of I-85. Local 20+ amounts are possible across higher east facing mountain and foothill locations. Dangerous freezing rain and sleet accumulations in excess of one half an inch continue to be possible with the high totals and therefore impacts between I-85 and I-40 outside of the mountains. Although latest model trends suggest areas closer to I-85 might have the most cause for concern. the bottom line is that a potentially very dangerous winter storm looms for much of the forecast area this weekend. And as the day shift yesterday put it, this could be a once-in-a-generation event for areas that experience mostly snow and ice. Now is the time to prepare. Finish preparations by Friday as if this storm speeds up Saturday may be too late, especially for the Upstate of SC into northeast GA.

Here is some thoughts from the MOB office on where they currently think the surface low is headed thru their FA. This will pertain more to the Upstate SC & WNC crew. It might be worth the read for you guys up north. Down here I have to wonder if we will ever dry out! LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Another mild day expected Friday with daytime high temperatures climbing into upper 50s to lower 60s...within a few degrees of seasonal norms. Easterly surface winds will gradually strengthen during the afternoon and become southeasterly in response to an approaching low pressure system to our west. By Saturday night, an eastward propagating cold front is projected over the Western Gulf with a surface low just offshore of the Southwest Louisiana and Texas border with a warm front extending eastward across the Northern Gulf. There still remains a lot of variability between the models on the evolution of this system as well as its timing. Have trended this forecast package more towards the GFS and UKMET solutions of keeping the surface low and attendant warm front generally along the coast as if moves east, but did address the potential for more convection inland with increased PoPs and isolated thunderstorms due to the more northerly track advertised by the ECMWF, GEM and some of the GFS ensemble members. It currently looks like the best chance of precipitation will occur Saturday afternoon through Saturday night with rainfall amounts heaviest closer to the coast where forcing for ascent will be strongest and precipitable water amounts will approach two inches. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches appear possible at this time along the coast tapering off to 1 to 2 inches inland. Indications are this system will be relatively fast moving so not anticipating widespread flooding but localized flooding will remain possible. Another critical concern is whether or not the warm sector shifts inland if it does, this could lead to strong to possibly severe thunderstorms especially along the coastal counties of Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle. We will continue to monitor trends and adjust accordingly. For now, continued with the previous thinking of the surface low moving east along the coast with most of the surface based instability remaining offshore.

Hahahahaha! Miss the snow but not the nonsense. On the bright side you only have around 90hrs to go!

Congrats fellas! Hope the new forum works well for you all.

Your blog was tweeted by someone I follow & I read it there. Great write up. My Mom said it was a fairly somber day in Joplin yesterday. (heightened by the events in Moore I'm sure) After moving there from the Ft Lauderdale area. She is more certain than ever she will spend the rest of her life in Joplin. The will of the people there along with the kindness just over whelm her. She had to stop by Wal Mart yesterday & a random group of people where collecting the same supplies JoMo spoke about to send to Moore. She pitched in and did her part & then just broke down. When I talked to her last night she was just astounded by the acts of the people in the Midwest.

NWS-SGF marks the 2 year anniversary of the Joplin Tornado with a summary of the events. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_summary

Found this on my computer.

Hey JoMo, Just wanted to say Merry Christmas to you & all the people of Joplin. I talked to my Mom last night & she just broke down. She said the will and fortitude of the people is just so overwhelming. Every time she starts to feel sorry for herself she hops in her car and drives around town. She has lived in Joplin for about 2 years now and she says she will never leave because of the people. Bless you all & may this coming year be one of more rebuilding and healing.

Awesome thread! Not just for the newbies, but for everyone. I would add these 2 links to the RUC & the HRRR for when it's go time. Great job Burger. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=11&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=13&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Nice find & impressive work. Props to you and Shaggy

Talked to my Mom tonight and she told me about this story. Have to say it brought a tear to my eye. Seems like an amazing comm. you have out there JoMo! http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/05/30/eveningnews/main20067397.shtml

Hey JoMo, A little late to the game but. Glad to see you are alive and for the most part ok. Don't know if you remember but I talked to you during the winter when you guys got walloped. My Mom moved out there from Ft. Lauderdale a little over a year ago. Your obs. match up excatly to hers. She lives up off of W Zora and said as you travel south things get worse & worse block by block. She had just finished eating at the Golden Corral on Range Line when I called her to let her know of the Warning. She got home as fast as possible & less than a minute or two after she got in the house her yard was covered with golf ball to baseball size hail. She took a less traveled way home yesterday (in the damage area) and was worried she was lost. She says after the initial shock. The will & the strenght of the comm. have her in awe. She really feels at home in Joplin and no plans to leave. I guess one of the few positives about such a tragic event like this is that people like her have a new found respect for the violent side of mother nature. I no longer will have to call her and inform her of a weather warning. I don't have to bug her to have her "annoying little weather radio" set up next to her bed. For her and others I am truly happy. Thoughts & Prayers for the less fortunate not only in Joplin but, all around the country.

Kinda new to the site & it is a wealth of info. Pretty easy to pick up the theme of the board if you follow along & have some smarts. Words I try to live by....Read more post less. Unless you are a Met or one of the more knowledgeable posters. Then of course the opposite is true.