NavarreDon

Morning folks!, I’m checking in with my eyes on the system. I think the 6Z is over doing the ice for most of the mountains . Obviously the escarpment and foothills are susceptible. Lots of time for adjustments to come. Remember not to get to caught up on one model or run. Don’t forget about synoptics when you look at the big picture. Buckle up for a wild couple days…..my favorite part of winter storms!!! .

Congrats to all that cashed. My previous next door neighbor posted pics & it looked like 2” off of New Stock Rd. Any of you seeing flow snow? BTW it’s 44 & windy at the beach currently!

https://www.facebook.com/OkaloosaSheriff/videos/668211411008527/ .

Agreed & whoever gets lucky enough to be popped by the deform band is gonna be in for a treat. I still say don’t sleep on areas in the foothills. If things break right with the low track and strength…..surprise, surprise, surprise!!! .

From a purely weather vs snow perspective. I find the verbiage in this portion of the GSP disco so cool! Tons going on in the atmosphere in the next 18 hours. Minor adjustments will be made to the Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories with the high elevation warning expanded down into Macon and the Advisories expanded across the northern NC foothills. Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow could be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts have been boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the Smokies. The snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border counties Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be a concern beyond the Warning/Advisory period. .

A very veteran group in here but we all get excited and tend to fall all over every model run (I know I was guilty of it when I lived in Weaverville!). 85’s post is spot on & very realistic. Temper your expectations to avoid disappointment. .

I’m at work And can’t look, is that for the airport or proper? What does your pinpoint forecast call for Jason? Earlier today my old one for Newstock Rd area was saying 3-5”. I think this at a minimum will hold true for north of proper. .

Sorry for the double post, please delete.

Good morning & HNY folks, this system has some potential for sure! Lots of variables in play here. Low placement & path, amount of tilt, how quickly temps crash, & dynamics. Things are looking good for a lot of you. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see someone report thunder snow. I liked the fact that the models aren’t showing the infamous FBV dry slot. Elevational areas look golden. N Buncombe up through Burnsville, Boone, W Jefferson look prime to me. Depending on low track portions of the Foothills might surprise. I expect someone will report 10” if this maintains. Remember it’s weather and models can only do so much. Be ready for shifts both good & bad. Good luck to all of you and I’ll be living vicariously thru OBS, pics, & vids! .

Just wanted to pop in and wish you all a very Merry Christmas! Hope you guys get a present of a pattern shift & then plenty of white stuff. .

Currently cloudy & 47 in the W FL Panhandle. Rain is on the way, really cold & raw day up here! .

Yikes!!! .

Don’t normally post in the SE, but when you have a 6hr rain event like this…..! .

Sorry to bug you but it’s 45mph & 1004 pressure with a special update at 5pm edt. .

https://www.fox10tv.com/news/2-dead-after-road-collapse-in-george-county-miss/article_4ea38026-0a42-11ec-8928-eb8dfc3a59f5.html Hearing this was caused by excessive rainfall from Ida. .

We’re getting raked by a band right now. Extreme rain and 35mph wind mixing down. .

This is correct!!! .

At work, please delete if already posted… .

Philippe Papin @pppapin Unfortunately trends on KLIX radar do *not* suggest #Ida is leveling off. Instead the eyewall has become more symmetric w/ the west side becoming more solid. Earlier attempt at a “moat” around the eyewall also looks to have filled back in.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 89.6W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

A sobering wake up this am! Marshall Shepherd @DrShepherd2013 Start or continue PRAYING...#HurricaneIda catastrophic disaster unfolding. I am usually more nuanced. Not today. This is not hype. This is a professional meteorologist, director of @UGAAtmosSci and aformer Pres of @ametsoc sick to his stomach. 50 mb in 22 hr, rapid deepening

Here is part of MOB’s historical disco on Opal. On the morning of October 2nd, Opal intensified to a hurricane while centered 150 miles west of Merida, Mexico. By this time, Opal began to drift north as a large upper level trough moved across the central United States. Opal then accelerated to the north northeast on October 3rd and 4th and underwent a period of rapid intensification - strengthening into a strong Category 4 hurricane early on October 4th. The minimum central pressure of 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph occurred when the hurricane was centered about 290 miles south southwest of Pensacola, FL around 5am on October 4th. Rapid Intensification and Evacuations Anybody living along the northern Gulf Coast in 1995 will tell you they heard some unsettling news when they woke up the morning of October 4th. Gulf coast residents went to bed on October 3rd knowing that Opal was a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. By 4am the next morning, the winds had increased to 135 mph. By 10am, Opal had maximum sustained winds of an alarming 150 mph, which is just below Category 5 intensity. Upon learning this, thousands of residents decided to evacuate at the last minute, which resulted in grid lock on many major highways, including Interstate 65. Many of these residents ended up seeking refuge in local shelters as Opal closed in on the western Florida Panhandle. .

An amazing light show happening 50 miles offshore in this outer band!!! .

130 mph max 125 mph landfall 938 pressure S of Dulac LA .

The status on Tropical Tidbits says “finished” for the mission. Very confusing! .