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NavarreDon

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  1. And away we go…..lol 880 WTNT43 KNHC 172034 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection is beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of the system, similar to what one might see in a developing subtropical cyclone. Although the upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so. Given the proximity of the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a potential tropical cyclone. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still rather broad. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined center. Maximum winds based on surface observations and the scatterometer pass are near 25 kt. Numerical intensity guidance do not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end of the guidance. Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain. The system is expected to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone near Florida. The official track forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. It should be noted, however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brennan .
  2. That would be some pretty bad flooding up in the mountains of WNC! .
  3. 92L has earned its cherry…. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Two, located about a hundred miles east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche in association with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. .
  4. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0007.html .
  5. Just talked to my brother (4063 elevation) on Bear Mnt outside of Glenville. He’s eyeballing 7-8” of wet paste! .
  6. Never made it out of the 40’s in the Western Panhandle today! .
  7. Looks like snow to me up at Wolf Ridge. https://skiwolfridgenc.com/the-mountain/web-cam .
  8. All of you tilt one back for me, love the beach & no second guessing on moving but.....oh boy I sure do miss the snow events!!! .
  9. You guys gotta quit basing the whole system on one run of one model. It’s really kinda past model time anyway. Nowcast time is upon you, good luck to all of you but especially the OG’s!!! .
  10. Morning folks, gonna be living vicariously through you for a bit. As 85 said above it’s about nowcast time. Models are going to do strange model things. The bottom line is a decent snow is upon the doorsteps for a bunch of you. As you know by now with any event there are always winners & losers. OBS from downstream this am is that there was very little convective aspects & what there was was out in the gulf. We are right in line with our qpf totals matching what MOB called for. Strap in and enjoy the ride! .
  11. This will get fine tuned with specific areas, precip. types, & amounts. As the event nears onset. .
  12. Interesting! The exact opposite of the normal French Broad Valley moisture starved hole. .
  13. Morning folks, I’m still liking this set up for you. As always there’s the winners & losers aspect to it. Sometimes it helps to read different discos besides GSP. I’m not going to clog the thread with a giant copy & paste but if you have a minute, read MOB’s overnight and you’ll get a good idea of the downstream side of the system and what’s feeding your areas. Good luck to all! .
  14. Happy New Year folks! Hope you don’t mind but I’m butting in on your thread. I like the potential set up that’s lurking for you. Lot’s of changes upcoming but if you look at synoptics & historical model biases. I think this could have the makings of a decent southern low pressure snowfall. Might not be be a gigantic event but it’s caught my eye! .
  15. And here it is!!! NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --SOMETIMES I THINK I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A FARMER. AT LONG LAST...WE /THINK/ WE ARE GETTING A SOLID HANDLE ON THE UNFOLDING WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SHARPLY AFTER THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO...AS MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE AND EVEN CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES. AS OF 16Z...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DRIFT/EXPAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. IN FACT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MAKES THE JUMP TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP WHERE ITS ALREADY FALLING...AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT. WE WILL NOW ADVERTISE 8-12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND BUMP THE I-40 PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS TO 5 TO 8 INCHES. AS USUAL...THE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAVEAT APPLIES.
  16. Found some old GSP discos that just bring back the excitement! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VEERED DRAMATICALLY BACK INTO THE HEAVY SNOW CAMP FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NRN STREAM STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIGGING MORE THAN THE MODELS HAD ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE INCREASING DARK BAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IS DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING. A BAND OF 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDS ACROSS TN AND INTO WRN NC. THIS BAND IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PCPN OVER SRN TN. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 18 UTC...WHICH MATCHES THE INCREASING PCPN TREND. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN OVER THE MTNS OF NC/SC/GA AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00 UTC TODAY. WITH A SNOW RATIO OF 12:1...THIS WOULD YIELD OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WE/VE BEEN PLAYING CATCHUP WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE 6 INCH TOTALS I HAVE IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS TODAY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT LEAST. THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO DOWN TREES...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND WILL MAKE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE MTNS BY LATER IN THE MORNING....WITH THE NC FOOTHILLS EXPERIENCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. IN SHORT...THIS IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. THEN THERE IS PART TWO. A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS ONLY INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TODAY...WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM WAVE. AS THE NRN STREAM WAVE IS SLOWER AND DEEPER...IT LOOKS TO PHASE MORE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...A PIVOTING BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. BOTH NAM AND GFS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV CROSSING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD 0600 UTC. AS THIS HAPPENS...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE. FOR NOW I/M JUST GOING WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH IS STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING UP THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS. HOWEVER...IF THIS WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AND PHASING CONTINUES...THEN HEAVIER SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE.
  17. First off Merry Christmas to all of you! Spent some time this morning reminiscing by going back thru the old Christmas 2010 threads. Lot's of new faces but, lot's of us who rode that roller coaster. If you have time check those old threads & or post your memories of this classic! Mine were the gut wrenching model runs. The highs, lows, & highs. Waking up before my kids on Christmas morning to catch up the discussion threads, then seeing actual snow falling in Weaverville, NC, my all time favorite AFD by GSP that started with "Sometimes I think I should have been a farmer!", to finishing with over a foot of snow. What are some of your favorite memories?.......has it really been 10 years!!!
  18. ‘Twas a brutal day up this way! Already in the 30’s with a stiff NW wind. High tomorrow just lower 40’s & then upper 20’s Saturday morning. .
  19. Merry Christmas guys!!! Congrats to all who cashed! .
  20. Got down to 30.4° near the coast this am! Forecast was for 34°. Had to start the wife's car to rid it of frost.
  21. Yes they are the first. Currently in the low 50's with a strong NW wind (Wind advisory all day). Temps won't budge all day!
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