NavarreDon

If I was up in the Mnts. My concern with gulf coast convection would be heightened if this was a monster storm. This one doesn’t seem to support it but you never know. Always a good idea to read up on downstream AFD’s. Below is a snippet of MOB’s overnight disco. These Mets are some of the best I’ve seen with severe weather. Long story short is I don’t see it being an issue for you all. The surface low will briefly bring a warm front into the coastal counties before a cold front follows quickly behind, but no tangible instability will accompany what will be a rather meager warm sector. .

Looks like a classic Miller A to me. I think the GFS and Canadian are sniffing this out. Questions will be, the Low track and how much moisture accompanies it. Changes always occur but this looks great for the Mnts. It doesn’t look like a monster but my early guess is there will be some OBS with 6”+ from the system. .

Good afternoon Mnt peeps! Hope you had a blessed holiday season. My prayers are for a continued recovery in the region! My snow spidey sense is going off about the upcoming weekend event. Historically & synoptically this set up provides the Mnts and to an extent the foothills a decent snow. There is still a lot to iron out but someone is probably going to have some fun. Hope you don’t mind if I pop in every now and then to give my 1.5 cents worth. .

Very likely we have a TS very soon if not already. .

There is a decent debris signature west of Tradition & PSL for the observed warning. .

Tornadoes are really ramping up now. As discussed earlier some of these are not your typical hurricane spawned rotations. https://x.com/weatherwithlaur/status/1844037683829710958?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

https://x.com/nstewwx/status/1843815942264107090?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

https://x.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/1843704758282137649?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Didn’t Ian do that? (Edit it was @ 120mph prior to the ERC and then rapidly intensified to 160mph)

Wow!!! Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover, and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records). .

MPH? .

Hmmm….sounds familiar! .

Sorry if already posted! https://x.com/wxtca/status/1841103250105516208?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Help coming from FL

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1840167601118556380?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

My thoughts and prayers are with all of you!!! Twitter is absolutely ablaze with WNC right now. If you have coverage and are on Twitter post it up. If you can’t and need something to be relayed post it here and I will send it. Jesse Farrell posted this is Asheville’s & WNC Katrina. The death toll will almost certainly rise and based on my knowledge it will take years to recover from this event! I am here to help how I can. Reach out to me & I will do my best. In the meantime be safe, Godspeed brothers!!! .

https://x.com/cc_stormwatch/status/1839521010095170007?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Navarre is currently 190 miles west of the center and my pressure is down 998.65! .

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1839348419032408339?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1839348419032408339?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

What up Mnt peeps! Just wanted to stop by and wish you all well. This will exceed the back to back 2004 impacts of Frances & Ivan (if you know you know!). Be ready for torrential rains or should I say more of it! Gusty wind with saturated soil will bring many trees down. Debris & mudslides will be likely. You’re a veteran group but for any newer residents it’s critically important you stay weather aware! Godspeed to all of you & you’ll be in my thoughts! Stay safe. .

Some amazing clouds this evening in Navarre, upper level outflow from the storm (ripping NE) & prefrontal storm clouds below. .

Perspective on the size of Helene, the TS wind field is jaw dropping! Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). .

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1838341891659829451?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Definitely have my eyes towards this situation as should anyone from Mississippi to Sarasota. So many variables at this point. Here is the first cone of PT 14 (Michael) just to drive that point home. .