NavarreDon

Let’s kick things off. .

It is, mainly some freezing rain. .

I realize it’s off topic for this thread but, I thought you all might get a kick out of this. .

Don’t see this everyday! .

LOL!!! .

Wolf Ridge cam shows it snowing hard currently! .

Congrats to all & thanks for letting me ride along!!! .

You’ll be pleased! .

My Brother (4100’) outside of Glenville has about 14”, multiple measures, as best as he can figure. Here’s a pic he snapped a while ago. .

Just got a text from my brother (4100’) just outside of Glenville. Best he can tell he’s over a foot with heavy snow now & very windy. .

The backside of this system means business, it’s currently 39 with a stiff NW wind down at the beach. .

Just talked to a buddy in Woodstock GA and he’s gone over to snow. .

That’s a great view! It gives a good look at what’s to come! .

Hey hey looky here….lol! .

Awesome Jason! pics?

Congrats to all of you!!! To say I'm jealous would be an understatement. Keep the obs, pics, & vids coming.

Downstream obs from Navarre in the W FL Panhandle. Storm is over performing. Already with 1.17” & more to come. . Edit to add no convection so far that could rob upstream moisture.

Sustained 35 mph with 1/4 mile or less visibility for at least a 3 hr period. .

It’s basically go time now. Model watching is about over. If I was up there I’d be looking at the strength & placement of the HP & watching the track, speed of the developing LP. .

TWC has boots on the ground in AVL already, Felicia Combs reporting this morning. .

Sometimes it’s a good idea to look at things downstream. This is part of MOB’s morning disco. I’d recommend reading the rest as they’re a damn good crew. This is what you want to see for a bigger Mnt/FH snow! .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...An upper level shortwave trough dives south over the Plains tonight, organizing into a closed low as it moves. The upper low moves east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to over the forecast area by Sunday night as a decreasingly positively tilted system, then increasingly negatively tilted as it moves east of the forecast area late Saturday night through Sunday. A surface low that has developed over Texas this afternoon moves east-southeast along the northern Gulf coast to over the forecast area by early Saturday evening. A weak warm front organizes along the Gulf coast tonight ahead of the approaching surface low, but with relatively weak low level southerly flow ahead of approaching system, the front will remain along the coast. A strong cold front moves east over the forecast area beginning Saturday night, ushering in a colder and drier airmass. .

Boom for you guys! The big boys at WPC put no stock in the quirky NAM runs. that low track is gonna be gold for the Mnts. I wouldn't fly over the cliff because of lower qpf totals in some areas. This tends to happen with models as the event draws near. Often times it's closer to the earlier higher totals. As with every big Mnt snow event the totals will vary wildly. Good luck to all of you!!!

I think the rates will overcome any sort of warmth in the mid levels for most in the Mnts. Also bear in mind the higher elevations will likely be looking at maybe a 12-1 vs 10-1 ratio if the temps maintain a upper 20’s profile. .

Normally would be the overnight tonight/tomorrow morning. With how early they put out the watch I could see a portion of the watch going warning this afternoon. .

It’s looking great for almost everyone in the Mnts & Foothills. As for the FBRV snow hole Jason made some great points. I’ve seen it be way overdone by the models with this set up. Not saying it’s not correct but I’m skeptical it will be as dramatic as depicted. As always with SE snowstorms nothing is certain but as far as modeling, setup’s, ect it doesn’t get much better than this!!! Strap in fellas it’s gonna be a wild one. .