NavarreDon

.

Light snow has commenced in Navarre FL!!! .

Sorry for barging in on this thread but you guys are my snow homies! Consider me stunned! https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/1881744640015311354?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

Temp 31 dew point 10, here at the beach in the FL Panhandle. 2”-5” is the forecast. Find it hard to believe but, we shall see! .

Hurricane Hunter is sampling out in the gulf to aid the models with this system. .

Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+! I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses…. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance, ...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the area Tuesday through Tuesday night... Overview: Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1 to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6" set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in 1895.

Hello all, sounds like it’s been a decent January for you. I really thought this storm would trend north based on history with these systems. Boy was I wrong! I realize there is a dedicated thread for this but I wanted to share this here (mods please feel free to move if needed). Below is part of the MOB AFD from this afternoon. It’s certainly something I never thought I’d see. We are less than a mile from the water so I’m sure we’ll have some mixing issues. Sorry for the long post and the lack of relevance! Winter Storm Likely... A potentially significant winter storm is expected to affect areas along the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday. At this point, the "dry scenario" is pretty much off the table, and with high probabilities suggesting that much of the area will see at least 1 to 2 inches of snow, the entire local area is now under a Winter Storm Watch from 6am Tuesday morning through 6am Wednesday morning. Although there are still some precip-type uncertainties along the coast, this will likely be an all-snow event for much of the local area. Along the coast, there may be just enough of a warm nose around the 850mb level to allow for some sleet pellets to be mixed in. Otherwise, looking at temperature profiles prior to the onset of precip, the dendritic growth zone looks to become fully saturated by around 09z-12z overtop a very dry 0-1km layer. Precip should initially start off as virga, or as very light flurries. Over the following couple hours, the dry lower levels will begin to moisten and cool (due to wet bulbing effects), likely bringing surface temperatures/dew points into the 20s. By this point, heavier snowfall rates will become realized and due to the colder temperatures at the surface, snow will start to accumulate. Looking at ensembles, the probability of accumulated snowfall greater than 3 inches continues to increase in comparison to previous days. Probabilities now stand at roughly 40 to 60 percent, which is why we are becoming increasingly concerned that this will be a significant event for the local area. If snow amounts over three inches actually occurred at KMOB, this would place us in the top 5 for historic snowfall amounts on record for the site. If three inches of snow occurs at KPNS, this would be actually be the highest accumulating event since the late 1800s! It should also be noted that probabilities have been pushed further to the south over the past couple days, with the best probabilities lining up around the I-10 corridor. Although there could still be some more minor fluctuations to where the heaviest snowfall will occur, these trends could lead to some major problems along our coastal counties. We urge residents and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast closely over the next few days and to begin preparing for this event. .

Wowsers!!! If only…. .

Several things to consider, a week or so out, synoptics, history, & so on. With all that being said. The 6Z GFS is about as good as it gets for a Mnt paste bomb. If the model holds on to this, look for it to tic north as time goes on. .

One of the best pics I’ve ever seen! .

12Z Euro is the stuff dreams are made of!!! .

Happy for all who cashed & especially those who over preformed! I’m really liking the pattern for the next couple weeks so, I might pop in or stick around. .

https://x.com/efisherwx/status/1878095662014747055?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

I’m really surprised also, it may end up with the N Mnts being the winners from this one. I certainly have some egg on my face at this point. .

Here is the long version, sorry for the length!: Mesoscale Discussion 0032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...northern Georgia...eastern Tennessee...far western South Carolina...western North Carolina Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 102130Z - 110030Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall along the high terrain and mixed precipitation likely in the afternoon/evening across portions of east TN/north GA and western SC/NC. DISCUSSION...A broad region of heavy precipitation continues to shift northward across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee/northern Georgia beneath enhanced mid-level flow and forcing from an upper-level trough. This precipitation shield will continue to lift north and eastward this evening, bringing an increase in the precipitation rates across the region, extending into western North Carolina through time. Moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible (with occasional 1" hr rates) across the southern Appalachian Mountains in eastern Tennessee. Further south across northern Georgia into the western Carolinas, profiles will continue to support additional accumulations of freezing rain. NAM/RAP sounding analysis across northern Georgia into South Carolina show a warm nose at 850 mb with surface observations indicating temperatures remain in the upper 20s to 30s. Occasionally, mixed precipitation/sleet will be possible. .

2.5” is the report from my brother’s hood up the Mnt outside of Glenville. .

Congrats folks! Gonna need lots of pics!!! .

Ahh the memories!!! Which way will the pendulum swing? Hoping it’s towards the over performing end for you Jason, you’ve paid many a dues! .

Thermal Profiles look a bit better than forecasted out west. This could bode well for some of you guys. .

https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1877402548304257266?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA .

+1 on this, really good analysis! .

Evening all! Been busy all day but wanted to say a couple things from afar. Try not to be guilty of model hugging. Use historical data as well. There a so many variables in a system like this one. Even Mets are unsure what will happen. Personally using the above I think the storm will meet or exceed expectations for the most part in the Mnts. Enjoy the next 36 hours as much as you can because the chase is what we all live for. Good luck to all of you!!! .

Great pics up above this post as well as below! More good news from MOB’s afternoon AFD + my forecast for Friday below AFD snippet: Plenty of moisture and forcing will allow for precip chances to increase rapidly throughout the period. With no instability in place, expecting this event to primarily be a widespread stratiform precip shield as opposed to convection. Friday forecast: A chance of rain before 9am, then showers, mainly after noon. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 63. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. .

I used to travel Hwy 28 thru that area back in the day. That’s a nice spot to be in, thinking you might escape the mixing zone but it’ll be close. .

Not sure of your location and elevation as I don’t follow the board like I used to (congrats on the move from SC!). I think the warm nose may come into play in some of the foothills, that being said I’d bet you get your wish of snowballs & sledding. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show!!! .