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NavarreDon

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Everything posted by NavarreDon

  1. Morning folks, I’m still liking this set up for you. As always there’s the winners & losers aspect to it. Sometimes it helps to read different discos besides GSP. I’m not going to clog the thread with a giant copy & paste but if you have a minute, read MOB’s overnight and you’ll get a good idea of the downstream side of the system and what’s feeding your areas. Good luck to all! .
  2. Happy New Year folks! Hope you don’t mind but I’m butting in on your thread. I like the potential set up that’s lurking for you. Lot’s of changes upcoming but if you look at synoptics & historical model biases. I think this could have the makings of a decent southern low pressure snowfall. Might not be be a gigantic event but it’s caught my eye! .
  3. And here it is!!! NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --SOMETIMES I THINK I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A FARMER. AT LONG LAST...WE /THINK/ WE ARE GETTING A SOLID HANDLE ON THE UNFOLDING WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SHARPLY AFTER THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO...AS MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE AND EVEN CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES. AS OF 16Z...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DRIFT/EXPAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. IN FACT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MAKES THE JUMP TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP WHERE ITS ALREADY FALLING...AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT. WE WILL NOW ADVERTISE 8-12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND BUMP THE I-40 PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS TO 5 TO 8 INCHES. AS USUAL...THE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAVEAT APPLIES.
  4. Found some old GSP discos that just bring back the excitement! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VEERED DRAMATICALLY BACK INTO THE HEAVY SNOW CAMP FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NRN STREAM STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIGGING MORE THAN THE MODELS HAD ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE INCREASING DARK BAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IS DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING. A BAND OF 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDS ACROSS TN AND INTO WRN NC. THIS BAND IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PCPN OVER SRN TN. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 18 UTC...WHICH MATCHES THE INCREASING PCPN TREND. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW HAVE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN OVER THE MTNS OF NC/SC/GA AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00 UTC TODAY. WITH A SNOW RATIO OF 12:1...THIS WOULD YIELD OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN SPOTS. WE/VE BEEN PLAYING CATCHUP WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE 6 INCH TOTALS I HAVE IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS TODAY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT LEAST. THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO DOWN TREES...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND WILL MAKE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE MTNS BY LATER IN THE MORNING....WITH THE NC FOOTHILLS EXPERIENCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. IN SHORT...THIS IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. THEN THERE IS PART TWO. A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS ONLY INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TODAY...WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM WAVE. AS THE NRN STREAM WAVE IS SLOWER AND DEEPER...IT LOOKS TO PHASE MORE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...A PIVOTING BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. BOTH NAM AND GFS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV CROSSING THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD 0600 UTC. AS THIS HAPPENS...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE. FOR NOW I/M JUST GOING WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH IS STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING UP THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS. HOWEVER...IF THIS WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AND PHASING CONTINUES...THEN HEAVIER SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE.
  5. First off Merry Christmas to all of you! Spent some time this morning reminiscing by going back thru the old Christmas 2010 threads. Lot's of new faces but, lot's of us who rode that roller coaster. If you have time check those old threads & or post your memories of this classic! Mine were the gut wrenching model runs. The highs, lows, & highs. Waking up before my kids on Christmas morning to catch up the discussion threads, then seeing actual snow falling in Weaverville, NC, my all time favorite AFD by GSP that started with "Sometimes I think I should have been a farmer!", to finishing with over a foot of snow. What are some of your favorite memories?.......has it really been 10 years!!!
  6. ‘Twas a brutal day up this way! Already in the 30’s with a stiff NW wind. High tomorrow just lower 40’s & then upper 20’s Saturday morning. .
  7. Merry Christmas guys!!! Congrats to all who cashed! .
  8. Got down to 30.4° near the coast this am! Forecast was for 34°. Had to start the wife's car to rid it of frost.
  9. Yes they are the first. Currently in the low 50's with a strong NW wind (Wind advisory all day). Temps won't budge all day!
  10. Just saw this, hope I’m in! 903 155KT .
  11. This may be one of the strangest disco's I've ever seen (MOB).....2020 I guess. .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...Hurricane Zeta was moving rapidly northeast at ~30 mph over the interior of southeast MS/southwest AL. Along the path, Zeta has been responsible for downing widespread trees which have taken out power lines and have contributed to structural damage. Life threatening/dangerous storm surge will continue over the coast. Zeta will continue to accelerate northeast through the night and is progged to lift out of the forecast area shortly after midnight. As the center of Zeta lifts out and weakens, strong winds will begin to taper as well as the tornado threat. Rain bands will also gradually move from west to east. A vigorous southern stream mid-level trof ejects eastward over the Lower MS River Valley Thursday and makes steady eastward progress over the southeast US Thursday night. This feature supports the passage of a strong cold front Thursday, which brings drier and cooler air to the local area in its wake. Coolest highs will be over the western zones with numbers in the mid 60s. Mid 70s along I-65 and 77 to 82 east of I-65 southward to the FL Panhandle. Overnight lows dip down into the mid to upper 40s north of the coast Thursday night.
  12. Getting a decent blow in Navarre now, gusting to the mid 50’s. .
  13. Lightning in the eyewall this late in the game....wow!!! .
  14. Found this little gem while checking our weather. .
  15. Impressed with the HWRF on this one. It wasn’t perfect but it got the gist of it. .
  16. Looks like these are flagged but it makes one wonder what they’ll find in the NE pass. .
  17. MOB has a decent write up about some of the inland affects below in last nights ST disco... SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...Bands of heavy rain and gusty winds will increase across the area on Wednesday night as Zeta approaches the local area from the southwest. At this time, landfall is forecast to occur in southeast Louisiana sometime early Wednesday evening and then lift northeast across southeast MS and into parts of southwest AL Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions (strong wind gusts and heavy rain) will spread northeast across our forecast area Wednesday evening into the early predawn morning hours Thursday. This system will be interacting with a cold front and broad region of associated diffluence aloft, so it is unlikely we see the typical decay after landfall that we would see in storms earlier in the season. In fact, model soundings continue to suggest upwards of 80 to 100 knots of flow in the eastern quadrant just off the surface (925-850 mb layer) persisting well after surface winds have weakened as Zeta moves inland over interior southeast Mississippi even up into central Alabama. This will serve as a source of momentum for heavy convective bands to transport to the surface. Therefore, while locations along and west of I-65 will have the greatest chance of seeing sustained tropical storm conditions Wednesday night, can`t rule out frequent strong gusts to tropical storm force farther east as well. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the entire local area. a weakening Zeta accelerates quickly northeastward and by early Thursday morning Zeta is expected to be over northeast AL and moving rapidly away from the area with winds and rains gradually subsiding during the day on Thursday. .
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