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Everything posted by NavarreDon

  1. Recon just arrived, let’s see what they find. .
  2. Multiple warnings popping up in this watch area. More added after this screenshot!
  3. On the ground obs from well outside the cone: We have gorgeous outflow clouds and tropical soup at the lower levels here in Navarre. .
  4. Yikes! 064 WTNT41 KNHC 062034 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Shortly after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory package, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 132 kt, and during its final passage through the northeast eyewall around 1700 UTC it reported a peak SFMR wind of 121 kt. The aircraft continued to report an extremely small 4-to-5-nmi-wide eye. The central pressure did level off somewhat on the final couple of penetrations, with the latest reported central pressure at 956 mb. The initial wind speed was raised to 120 kt on the earlier intermediate advisory, and has been set at 125 kt for this advisory. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission into the hurricane is scheduled for this evening. There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is once again a little above the various intensity aids until landfall in Mexico. When the small inner core of Delta moves over land, weakening is expected, but warm waters and low vertical wind shear over the southern Gulf of Mexico should support re-strengthening, and a second peak in intensity is likely when Delta is over the central Gulf of Mexico in 48-60 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed. The global models, however, depict a significant increase in the size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico, which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane is likely to result in a significant storm surge and wind event for portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week. Delta has been moving steadily west-northwestward today at 300/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to continue steering Delta west-northwestward during the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a developing trough over the south-central United States should cause Delta to turn northward, and by Friday the hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating northward or north-northeastward ahead of the trough. This motion will bring Delta onshore along the northern Gulf coast between 72 and 96 hours. The dynamical models continue to be tightly clustered through 48-72 hours with some increase in spread thereafter. The overall trend in the guidance has been slightly westward, and the new forecast has been adjusted accordingly and lies near the middle of the envelope. Supplemental upper-air balloon launches at 0600 and 1800 UTC have begun at upper-air sites across portions of the southeastern United States. In addition, a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is in progress and should provide additional data for the 0000 UTC cycle of the dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.9N 84.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 23.0N 91.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.4N 92.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 93.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 28.0N 92.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 32.4N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW .
  5. I see what you did here!!! Lol .
  6. https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1313085909504602113?s=20
  7. Someone probably needs to open a dedicated thread on 92L. It’s got its cherry on the 5 day outlook.
  8. Recon on the way Hmmm....did I miss something? .
  9. Tropical Weather Discussion ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located inland over northwestern Louisiana. 1. A westward-moving tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, they are forecast to gradually become more favorable over the weekend and into early next week when the wave moves into the central and then western tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Latto .
  10. The ground is completely saturated. It wouldn’t take much to bring some trees down as we are closing in on 6”. We are fairly well prepped for weather including an evacuation plan. .
  11. I realize that Laura is the hot topic but we are getting lashed with bands of tropical rain. 4” in the last 12 hours with more to come. Not much wind but it obviously mixes down when the rain gets heavy. .
  12. Nice near term disco by MOB for my area this morning! NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...As of this morning, the Tropical Storm Watch was cancelled for Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama as well as George and Stone counties in southeast Mississippi. However, windy conditions will be possible today. Thus, a Wind Advisory was issued through 7PM CDT this evening for coastal Mobile and coastal Baldwin counties (mainly along the immediate coast) for easterly winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. /26 The main point is that the next 48 hours or so will be rather wet. Marco is currently in a world of absolute hurt as 30 knots of southwesterly shear from the upper trough over the ARKLATEX region has begun to decouple the low level circulation from the mid-level circulation. However as long as there is deep convection associated with the mid-level circulation, the low-level circulation will continue to attempt to move with the mid-level circulation causing the track to potentially shift a little more east than originally expected and the NHC`s latest track reflects that (about 20 mile eastward shift given the storms position). This really won`t have much of an impact on us as the shear will only increase with time and the low-levels will eventually decouple causing the low-level center to track westward and the mid-level center to continue moving north towards our area. Imagine the head of the storm going one way and the legs going the opposite direction. Since the mid-level circulation is expected to move across the area, a plume of 2 to 2.5 inches PWATs will overspread the area tonight into Monday. Typically with these highly sheared systems most of the rainfall ends up being well to the east from the actual center and in this situation thats us. Scattered to numerous storms will be expected as lift associated with that Mid-level center increases over the area beginning along the coast later tonight then slowly spreading inland throughout the day. So all in all rain chances will continue to stay high at least through Monday night and likely into Tuesday especially over southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi. The main threat with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall given PWATS of 2.5 leading to likely efficient warm rain processes and rainfall rates likely approaching 2 to 3 inches per hour in the heaviest bands. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches will be possible along the coast with some locations getting locally higher amounts. For instance areas in Tallahassee`s area saw in excess of 7 inches today where a band setup for a couple of hours. These higher amounts will be based on where any banding sets up. Due to this, the flash flood watch will continue for coastal Alabama, southeast Mississippi, and far western Florida Panhandle. Along with the rain threat, an isolated tornado threat will be possible, given we are on the eastern side which typically supports the higher tornado threat. Luckily we will be removed from the low-level center and the better backed surface winds will be displaced to our west. I cannot rule out a tornado or two, especially during the late afternoon hours tomorrow into early tomorrow night. Winds will be gusty as well as storms mix down higher winds associated with the mid-level center. Some showers could have gusts to 30 to 40 mph. Luckily with all the rain, temperatures will be on the light side and will struggle to reach the low 80s. Lows will remain high though given the increased low level moisture throughout the period. Rip current risk will remain HIGH for quite some time and we had reports of 26 beach rescues yesterday at Pensacola beach alone. The water is not safe and a high surf advisory will also continue through the period. BB/03
  13. It’s been raining heavily all day from Port St Joe East thru Apalachicola. Here’s EVX totals. .
  14. Looks like some towers firing around the center. Just got home and seeing some reports (TWC & Josh) saying there is a more N component to Marco. Any thoughts on this?
  15. If they deem it a cane wouldn’t they do a special update before then? .
  16. Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 Cutting to the chase, there have been some big changes among the model guidance, and subsequently the NHC forecast, for Marco this afternoon. While at this point it's a little speculative, the data collected by this morning's NOAA G-IV flight in the environment around Marco and across the Gulf of Mexico may have played a key role in the significant eastward shift seen in nearly all the 12z models. This isn't to say that the uncertainty in the eventual track has diminished. In fact, various ensemble members from some of the global models still show a potential risk to the coast anywhere from Texas to Alabama, and it's entirely possible that the volatile shifts seen in the models could continue. That being said, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted significantly eastward and now shows the center of Marco reaching southeastern Louisiana in about 2 days, which is the scenario currently shown by the GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and the TVCN multi-model consensus. After Marco reaches the coast, the western Atlantic ridge is expected to build westward and should cause the cyclone to move more slowly toward the west-northwest across southern portions of Louisiana. As far as the intensity is concerned, the last fix made by this morning's reconnaissance flight indicated that the pressure had leveled off, and no higher winds had been observed from what was measured earlier in the flight. The radar presentation from Cuban radar has also degraded a bit, so Marco's initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Marco is beginning to move into a zone of moderate southwesterly shear, but otherwise favorable conditions of warm ocean water and some upper-level divergence are expected to foster strengthening during the next day or so. With the exception of the HWRF, the other intensity models show Marco reaching hurricane strength, and the NHC foreast continues to show that possibility while Marco moves over the central Gulf. The shear is still expected to strengthen in 36-48 hours when the system is approaching the northern Gulf Coast, but with the shift in the forecast track, now there may not be enough time for Marco to weaken below hurricane intensity before it reaches land. The new NHC intensity forecast is near or just above the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble models and holds Marco as a hurricane until it reaches the coast. The forecast track changes now bring tropical storm force winds to the coast in 36-48 hours, which necessitates the issuance of Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast. These watches will likely need to be upgraded to warnings later tonight. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of extreme western Cuba through this evening. Heavy rainfall is also expected in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and across far western Cuba, which could result in flash flooding. 2. Marco is expected to approach the central Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Monday. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge watches have been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 3. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that could be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 21.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 23.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 87.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 27.5N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 29.3N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON THE COAST 60H 25/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z 31.1N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 26/1800Z 32.3N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg .
  17. Not the best with models but it looks like the 12Z GFS is initializing with Marco @ 1005. Will this cause issues with the whole run? .
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