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Everything posted by NavarreDon

  1. Hmmm….gotta be really close to hurricane Nicole. Maybe 70mph. .
  2. Definitely the healthiest I’ve seen her. Will be curious to see what recon finds. .
  3. 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with a high density of lightning developed near the center of the cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt. A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and southern Mexico through Tuesday. Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that the center will have dissipated by those times. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system crosses the islands and moves onshore. 2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg .
  4. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update discussion of the tropical wave east of the Windward Islands For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: East of the Windward Islands: Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg .
  5. Thank you for taking the time to post all this. I think most of us don’t look at the UKMET for tropical guidance, the moral of the story is don’t discount any model when forecasting. Side note: I remember well people saying the HWRF was out to lunch for its pressure falls during Michael. .
  6. That’s amazing!!! From Martin County in SE FL up into the fringes of SE NC. One of the more massive fields I’ve seen. .
  7. Amazing wind across the Deep South with Ian & pressure gradients. .
  8. 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291500 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022 The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable. Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about 70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave trough moving southward across the southern United States should turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday. The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with the latest consensus guidance. Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance. It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side. .
  9. Congrats to the men & women @ the NHC! .
  10. 000 WTNT64 KNHC 281910 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb (27.75 inches). SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 82.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.75 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin/Beven/Stevenson .
  11. 000 WTNT64 KNHC 281901 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONGOING... A Weatherflow station at Tarpin point in Cape Coral reported sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust up to 118 mph (190 km/h). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 942 mb (27.81 inches). SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 82.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF FT MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Beven/Papin .
  12. Landfall should be any minute, my guess would be North Captiva Island. .
  13. Severe studios live web cam on Fort Myers Beach. .
  14. Reminiscent of Michael, TBX shows the core in the best shape I’ve seen all morning. .
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