NavarreDon

MOB has a decent write up about some of the inland affects below in last nights ST disco... SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...Bands of heavy rain and gusty winds will increase across the area on Wednesday night as Zeta approaches the local area from the southwest. At this time, landfall is forecast to occur in southeast Louisiana sometime early Wednesday evening and then lift northeast across southeast MS and into parts of southwest AL Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions (strong wind gusts and heavy rain) will spread northeast across our forecast area Wednesday evening into the early predawn morning hours Thursday. This system will be interacting with a cold front and broad region of associated diffluence aloft, so it is unlikely we see the typical decay after landfall that we would see in storms earlier in the season. In fact, model soundings continue to suggest upwards of 80 to 100 knots of flow in the eastern quadrant just off the surface (925-850 mb layer) persisting well after surface winds have weakened as Zeta moves inland over interior southeast Mississippi even up into central Alabama. This will serve as a source of momentum for heavy convective bands to transport to the surface. Therefore, while locations along and west of I-65 will have the greatest chance of seeing sustained tropical storm conditions Wednesday night, can`t rule out frequent strong gusts to tropical storm force farther east as well. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the entire local area. a weakening Zeta accelerates quickly northeastward and by early Thursday morning Zeta is expected to be over northeast AL and moving rapidly away from the area with winds and rains gradually subsiding during the day on Thursday. .

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Recon just arrived, let’s see what they find. .

Hello!

Multiple warnings popping up in this watch area. More added after this screenshot!

On the ground obs from well outside the cone: We have gorgeous outflow clouds and tropical soup at the lower levels here in Navarre. .

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Yikes! 064 WTNT41 KNHC 062034 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Shortly after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory package, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 132 kt, and during its final passage through the northeast eyewall around 1700 UTC it reported a peak SFMR wind of 121 kt. The aircraft continued to report an extremely small 4-to-5-nmi-wide eye. The central pressure did level off somewhat on the final couple of penetrations, with the latest reported central pressure at 956 mb. The initial wind speed was raised to 120 kt on the earlier intermediate advisory, and has been set at 125 kt for this advisory. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission into the hurricane is scheduled for this evening. There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is once again a little above the various intensity aids until landfall in Mexico. When the small inner core of Delta moves over land, weakening is expected, but warm waters and low vertical wind shear over the southern Gulf of Mexico should support re-strengthening, and a second peak in intensity is likely when Delta is over the central Gulf of Mexico in 48-60 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed. The global models, however, depict a significant increase in the size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico, which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane is likely to result in a significant storm surge and wind event for portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week. Delta has been moving steadily west-northwestward today at 300/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to continue steering Delta west-northwestward during the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a developing trough over the south-central United States should cause Delta to turn northward, and by Friday the hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating northward or north-northeastward ahead of the trough. This motion will bring Delta onshore along the northern Gulf coast between 72 and 96 hours. The dynamical models continue to be tightly clustered through 48-72 hours with some increase in spread thereafter. The overall trend in the guidance has been slightly westward, and the new forecast has been adjusted accordingly and lies near the middle of the envelope. Supplemental upper-air balloon launches at 0600 and 1800 UTC have begun at upper-air sites across portions of the southeastern United States. In addition, a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is in progress and should provide additional data for the 0000 UTC cycle of the dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.9N 84.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 23.0N 91.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.4N 92.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 93.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 28.0N 92.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 32.4N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW .

145/956 @ 5 .

I see what you did here!!! Lol .

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1313085909504602113?s=20

Someone probably needs to open a dedicated thread on 92L. It’s got its cherry on the 5 day outlook.

Recon on the way Hmmm....did I miss something? .

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And away we go! .

Tropical Weather Discussion ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located inland over northwestern Louisiana. 1. A westward-moving tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, they are forecast to gradually become more favorable over the weekend and into early next week when the wave moves into the central and then western tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Latto .

Didn’t follow it all day but I’m thinking that’s likely what happened. .

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. 1. A small low pressure system is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida. While the low currently has limited thunderstorm activity, some development is still possible before it moves inland early Monday. This system is expected to evolve into a larger low pressure system and move northeastward, possibly emerging offshore of the Carolinas later this week where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 2. A strong tropical wave, centered about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible on Monday before environmental conditions become hostile for development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds on some of those islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Blake The N Gulf low is really distinctive on EVX!

We have a cherry. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently located inland near the Guatemala-Yucatan Border. This large disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward this morning, followed by a northwestward motion later today, and the center of the low pressure system could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche by this evening. If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new tropical depression could form while the system moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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Up to 40% 48hrs & 50% 5 day https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png .

Surprised this isn't getting more attention: Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread from the northeast Gulf Coast this morning to the Carolinas by early evening. Damaging winds could be common with this activity, and a few tornadoes are also possible. ...Northeast Gulf Coast to the Carolinas... Strong low-latitude trough is beginning to shift east across the Big Bend of TX/northeast Mexico as a pronounced mid-level speed max approaches the base of this feature. By mid day, 500mb speed max in excess of 100kt will translate into the lower MS Valley, then strengthen to near 140kt over the Carolinas by 27/12z. In response, intense 12hr mid-level height falls (200m) will spread across the northern Gulf States into the western Carolinas. LLJ is forecast to strengthen across the northern Gulf Basin into southern AL by sunrise Thursday. This will encourage boundary-layer moistening with upper 60s surface dew points expected to advance inland across southern AL/GA, with near 70F dew points across the FL Panhandle. This moistening will be more than adequate for substantial SBCAPE ahead of the surging cold front. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front at the start of the period. As large-scale forcing approaches this region, a sharpening band of frontal convection should evolve. Given the strengthening wind fields there is increasing confidence that a potentially damaging squall line will race northeast across the ENH Risk area. In addition, a few pre-squall line supercells may also develop as minimal forcing will be needed to initiate convection. Tornado threat will be most concentrated with these more discrete structures, though embedded squall-line circulations are also expected given the shear. A well organized squall line should progress across GA/northern FL into the Carolinas during the evening hours. This linear MCS should advance off the NC Coast shortly after midnight. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/06/2020

MOB with a great disco on our area down here! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MOB&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .

Thoughts? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html