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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    op GFS and GEFS very close in SLP placement at h132
  2. Terpeast
    I think a faster jump to the coast actually helps us
  3. Terpeast
    Me too. We have so little wiggle room and we can't afford a slight north jog. 18z gfs just gave us a bit more breathing room
  4. Terpeast
  5. Terpeast
    For fun - 138h sounding at KIAD in the middle of the storm
  6. Terpeast
    Cold high location exactly the same the last 3 runs, remarkable consistency
  7. Terpeast
    Wowwww
  8. Terpeast
    Fall line gonna be close
  9. Terpeast
    I was telling psuhoffman the other day that if we got to January 1 and there was nothing noteworthy as a threat in the next 15 days, I would downgrade my snowfall forecast for the entire area by about 25%. Here we are, it's Jan 1 and we're tracking a threat that just might pan out for us. Not planning on any changes to my outlook until after the 1/7 event passes, then I will reassess from there. Downgrade may still happen if we go all rain in the low lands, which is not off the table yet.
  10. Terpeast
    Interesting. So how do we use that information when comparing the GEFS with op GFS and other models? Is the GEFS better at shorter lead times and less so at longer lead times (10-15+ days)? Or if the op GFS takes a different track than the GEFS mean, do we lean more on the op GFS?
  11. Terpeast
    Wait, is that really true?!
  12. Terpeast
    Light rain now
  13. Terpeast
    Agree. The panel brooklyn posted would be the likely cutter that sets up the 50 low under the block and the next wave could undercut the TPV. It’s a great setup. Loaded with potential What’s more, the 50/50 would also help sustain the block long enough for the potential to play out
  14. Terpeast
    I’ll record a trace as well
  15. Terpeast
    Oof. My TT still hasn’t updated
  16. Terpeast
    SLP track similar to 0z eps, except surface high is stronger on 12z
  17. Terpeast
    Better agreement with the op euro, at least with the fall line
  18. Terpeast
    Bout of legit light snow
  19. Terpeast
    White flakes sticking on deck furniture. Is that enough to count as a T?
  20. Terpeast
    Note the trend of the cold HP strength up top on the gefs
  21. Terpeast
    I have to say the models did an excellent job with today’s passage of the 1/1 system. They locked into it more than a week ago. Let’s hope this accuracy holds.
  22. Terpeast
    Very very light snow falling. Ashburn
  23. Terpeast
    Have to agree with WxUSAF. This doesn’t quite have the markings of a 96/10/16 style HECS, but could still be a significant event for NW of the fall line. Max upside is around a foot for the lower elevs but with temp/ptype issues, the reality may be half that even with a favorable track. ETA: WPC seems more bullish though, so we shall see
  24. Terpeast
    Gfs may have overcorrected with the SE trend (or it may be onto something) We have a little more wiggle room with cold air and the r/s/mix line, and that’s what we can say at this point. No complaints ( except maybe the Canadian)
  25. Terpeast
    We need it. D5-6 is when models take a hop SE, then trend north as lead times continue to shorten. So that’s one thing we got to watch out for. But we do have things going against the last minute north trend - stronger confluence and better cold air. And the 1/4 lead wave never trended north, it just continued to weaken and trend south from D7 to D3, and I don’t see it changing much from here on out.
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