Eduardo

Probably one of the most succinct "diagnoses" I've seen thus far, Chris. The relentless, raging PAC jet reminds me of 11-12 as well. I figured that the LR models eventually might be correct in their repeated insistence that the jet would subside given the different ENSO landscape this year. But clearly that has not at all come to pass and winter now seems all but over before it ever really got going. For now though, I am at a loss as to why the PAC pattern this year was so Niña-esque. Seems like, since the last "Super Niño," the PAC does not conform to ENSO-based expectations.....

Yeah I'm pretty much at the epicenter of the ugliness right beneath that 1" contour, although I've personally measured 3.8" for the season here in Lindenhurst. Still, blehhhhhhh. Took two nice road trips the past two weekends though--one up to Lake Placid, NY and another to Great Barrington, MA. Almost forgot what robust snowpack looks like. For anybody else who feels down and out over this disappointment-of-a-winter, I highly recommend a trip north if you are able! Absolutely beautiful up there!

Oddly narrow band of heavy rain traversing LI. Anyone know what gave rise to it? Radar signature almost resembles an outflow boundary akin to what we would see during the heart of sever season.

We pray!

Too much living and dying by every model run in here. The MJO is dictating everybody and everything this year—volatile LR guidance included. And because it’s behaving so erratically thanks to the current PAC SST configuration, so too will the guidance. Likely outcome IMO: Given the current SST landscape, just as happened earlier this month and back in Dec, we will make one more brief run through P8 and hopefully skirt P1 before the MJO reverts back to its crumby phases. During that short window, we will have a chance, possibly at something big. Hopefully, bad luck won’t shut us out again. Not a great winter for snow lovers so far, but definitely quite a learning experience. Huge impact on how I view ENSO.

Frustrating for me as a hobbyist, Chris. I can only imagine the migraines it causes professional forecasters. Wreaking havoc on LR models too since, when they get the MJO wrong, their LR outputs become rather useless...probably explains why many have been duped into pinning their hopes to the pretty pictures constantly showing a favorable pattern ten days out, only to (literally) get caught in the rain down the road. What do you think accounts for the poor job the models have done with the MJO this year?

Nobody remembers the first half of 2014-15 and they only remember the first half of 2015-16 because of the batshittery that was December 2015. With the MJO decaying, I think we are in for a decent run that will allow some of us to forget the disappointments we have seen thus far. I think we snow to the coast and that "retention snobs" like me will be satisfied given the deep cold that's on the way!

LOL. My 3.1" seasonal total (thanks entirely to the November snow-to-rain event) would essentially remain unchanged if any of those verified.

(1) Yes......time moves forwards..... :-P We are just now rounding the halfway point of meteorological winter and March’s have been kind to us in recent years as well. While we might need some luck for this weekends storm, I think the coast is in a better position to reap some dividends afterwards. (2) AN for Jan is hardly assured given the cold that’s progged to settle in for the rest of the month. Might be tough to erase the + departures from the early-month PAC puke, but it might be doable.

Give it time. Models will bounce around for the next few days in what seems a tempermental battle between the TPV and WAR. At this point though, I don’t think the tele’s favor a snowy solution for us coasties. MJO’s antics continue to be the flies in the ointment, meaning that the WAR probably buts in too much. Maybe a bit of payback for all of those glorious coastal scrapers we have seen over the past few years that have shut out the interior. Patience though. I think our fortune might change in a few weeks when the MJO either moves into the COD or more favorable phases. The blockiness modeled up top will help. There’ll definitely be plenty of cold nearby too.

Yeah the only way we overcome that is to have an overwhelming EPO to counter the WAR like we have had in some recent years. I'd love to see it since that's how we get those exceptionally cold snowstorms and deep winter here. But I don't see anything like that modeled here. MJO is killing any semblance of forecast certainty this year. I wish it would just retreat to the COD and stay there....

Been thinking this as well. I’m by no means a pro, but at an elementary level, it seems like all weather is driven by “gradients,” no?

Outside of a lucky/fluky event, I think it’s time to close the shades until mid January, especially for us coasties. Pattern seems mostly MJO-driven and that should come back into favorable phases around that time. May take a bit of time to drive the incoming PAC air mass off the continent once the pattern shifts. Stratwarming might be the wildcard here, but they always seem to yield mixed/not-easily-discernible results for us. I do think we end up doing well after mid January, which actually fits well with typical Niño climo. Unless we hit a rout of severe bad luck, I think NYC has a solid chance at seeing 40+” on the winter, most of which will fall in the season’s second half. Many of our recent backloaded Niño winters feature some impressive cold too, so 0 degrees in NYC would not surprise me either. Muddling through a mild holiday season is no fun, but it seems to be the norm here in the past few decades. But, if that history is any indication, in years with similar ENSO states, the waiting tends to pay off later on.

Given that the potential transition window centers around the holiday, I honestly think it's all driven by a (shared) desire for a white Xmas and amplified by the recent bout of bad luck. That's all there is to it. Once we move past Xmas (whether it's white or not), everybody will get over it and wait with baited breath as we look forward to a rocking second half of the winter, which ENSO climo supports. I'm looking forward to it!

Same in SW Suffolk. An even 21" here, if memory serves. Unforgettable how it ticked just far enough north in the last 48 hours to nail us!

Probably rushing things a bit, although still good to see of course. At this point I'm about ready to close the shades and punt today-December 10th or so, but I think our chances improve mid-month on. Patience! It's only November 24th! :-)

Getting a solid, steady soaking here in SW Suffolk. From the looks of the radar, there's more on the way before Michael scoots out to sea.

This is like the tree falling in the woods thought experiment, except that here, we already have aerial footage showing the tree on the ground and we are waiting to hear from eyewitnesses who likely will confirm that it indeed made a sound when it fell.... I'm shocked that any instruments stood up to Cat. 3 wind gusts to record what they did over 40 minutes before landfall. "Data" includes much more than just those measurements. We take into account the type and extent of structural damage wrought, eyewitness testimony, satellite and radar imagery, and measurements taken just prior to landfall (i.e. recon obs). You seem to have a serious misunderstanding of how science works (i.e., how working hypotheses are tested and revised). We have had less than 24 hours now to survey the damage and assess the strength of Michael by these standards. Getting a complete picture will take some time. Calling this an overhyped Cat. 2 at this juncture is both premature and asinine.

Unexpectedly decent winds with this here in Southwest Suffolk...enough to take down some small, healthy tree branches. Rain and lightning are impressive as well. Not bad for October 2nd!

Interesting that 4 of 5 of them occurred in the last seven years, Chris. Do we know if there is some larger-scale/decadal phenomenon that accounts for this?

Some of the most vivid, "dancing" CTG lightning strikes I've seen aside from the light show I saw when I was in Havana last summer. Car on Sunrise Highway *roughly 250 feet in front of me was struck!

Ya that's a well-balanced take on the impact of social media, Don. Like any other tool, it can do quite a bit of good if one knows how to use it. A hammer is useful too, but not if you are swinging at nails with the claw. Similarly, with respect to meteorological information on social media, you will find yourself misled unless you have some background knowledge of the subjects with which it bombards you. Decent analogy can be drawn to the current state of our political affairs here, but that's one for a different forum

Much different synoptic setup than our typical blockbusters too. Wasn't PDII essentially just a humongous overrunning event?

To be fair, I haven't read Mr. Cosgrove's forecast in detail. But given the immense lack of below-normal monthly departures in the last few years, to me, forecasting above normal temps with a confidence level less than or equal to 50% seems like a pretty 'safe' way to go, isn't it?

Surprised at the number of them bending her back toward the NNW later in the period. Are those all based off of the same model?