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Everything posted by MANDA
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Looks nice out there. Still light snow. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Snowing lightly. 8.6” otg. Light snow for a bit longer but it is wrapping up soon. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
28 and 5” otg. Heaving snow attm. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
29.5 and moderate snow now -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Absolutely nuts. Stuff like this never used to happen. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Laughable if true. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
They had to bump the numbers down along and north of I80. There was nothing left to support what they had going. Looks like much more reasonable map overall. I would tend to lean to the lower end of the range for 78 north. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Not impressed with this map. Knock some off for not pure 10:1 event and you are notably less than NWS amounts. Especially up my way. Going to be interesting from around daybreak through noon. Some will be disappointed IMO. -
Wow, we moved up to first place! Last time you posted we were #4, I think at the end of January. Interesting to see where we drop to after the event tomorrow. Thanks for posting.
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Don- Thanks for all your great stats. Do you have an updated winter ratter chart as of today? Just wondering if NYC bumped up a position from the last time you posted? Just wondering what it will be before and after the coming event. Thanks.
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Has got to be some cutting of the totals by NWS at some point for along and north of Rt. 80. I don't see their current forecast of 8-10, 10-14 verifying along and north of 80 and west of 287. I'm thinking 4 to maybe as much as 6 for my area and the 6" is a MAYBE. Not liking the current trends for more than 6" up this way. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I was in Manhattan for the April 1982 storm. It stuck on the roads and temperatures the day before was I believe were in the low 50's. Granted during the event temperatures fell into the m/u 20's, that is a big difference compared to 32-34 tomorrow. Late morning into early afternoon would have done late January or early February proud. Heavy snow with thunder and lightning and intense rates of fall got the job done. Also, that storm was not that different than this. Bombing low off Del-Mar-Va moving NE to near BM. If I recall correctly CNJ had much less than CP and SNJ had little to none. Guess my point is that if temperature can fall to 32 and you get 1-2" rates for a while it will stick to the roads but it has to snow HARD. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Would also have been much better if decent cold air was in place and more was readily available to be tapped. We're really relying on dynamic cooling especially more eastern parts of the forum. Still going with 2-4" for my location with 6" or 6"+ for NW Sussex county on north and east. We'll see soon enough. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
My thinking best chances for 2-4" starts along I80 and west of 287 for the NJ crew. First call for my area 2 to perhaps as much as 4". Thinking 1/2" to 1" of slop NYC/LI and immediate NJ burbs EWR area. 1-2" interior NE NJ. Subject to some adjustment but not envisioning 6" or more outside of NW Sussex on north and east from there. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
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Totally agree. Is terrible for ski areas though as you said.
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Helluva winter for sure!
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Off topic for this forum but a nice wintry scene up in Barrow this afternoon. Check out the drifting.
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I read your post and how to go check to see if it was who I thought it was. It was. This person has really gone off the deep end last several years. Shame. Lindsey Storm -
Pathetic.
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53 pages on the 8th of the month and no snow or cold to show for it so far. I know full well that is what was expected but that is a lot of "chit chat" over a pending pattern change. Keep calm and carry on.
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Was going to guess once in a 500 year return. Wow, that is really impressive. Thanks!
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Wonder what the return period is for totals like that? Any Idea Don? Any records set with that total? Single storm? Month?
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In cases like this (and for most of the events so far this season for that matter) they should be. Far better in marginal situations than 10:1 maps / Kuchera. It situations like this those 10:1 maps are pure folly and you are only setting yourself up for disappointment. To each his own I guess.