MANDA

Will be interesting to see some of totals come tomorrow morning. Especially over parts of Sussex County NJ and NE NJ and parts of L.I. There were parts of Sussex County that had 2-3" totals as of 8:00 this morning and from the looks of radar some of the same areas have been soaked a few times since then. NE NJ and parts of L.I. have also been hit several times with torrential downpours. Worst of it so far has gone around my location. Had .44" period ending 8:00 this morning and another .60" since then. That on top of the .25" Sunday morning. Just enough but not too much. All going to good use instead of rapid runoff. Short soakings.

Heat index readings SNJ just nasty. Air mass is juiced that is for sure. DP's mid to some upper 70's. About the upper end of what we see around here.

Total was .77". I'll take it and run!

Did well here. Hail pea to some marble size. Winds gusts to est. 40 mph. Not enough hail to coat the ground but hail nonetheless. Did not go out to read the gauge but has to be .50" to .75" based on how hard it rained for roughly 20 min. Will check total in the morning. Thunder and lightning was minimal.

Fell apart and the leftovers went just to my south. Oh well. This was probably my last shot at something "decent" for 3-5 days.

I'll take anything at this point. I hope this holds together!

12:45 and have been in the parting snow band for about 30 min with moderate to heavy snow and NEAR blizzard conditions. Current temp 25.5 with vis about 1/4 mi, sometimes a little lower when wind gusts. As of noon 2.5". Tough to measure with the wind. Will measure once this band exits but believe up to near or a tad over 3" now.

9:30 - Vis 1/4 mi S/BS small fine flakes but lots of them 29.3 degrees. Everything including pavement and concrete accumulating.

Yes, my neighborhood rises sharply to north of Rt. 80 and that elevation helps in events like this. Was the same earlier this past week.

8:00 a.m. - 37 degrees with light to moderate rain. 8:20 a.m. - 33 degrees with sleet and rain mixed. 8:30 a.m. - 32 degrees light to moderate snow 9:00 a.m. - 29 degrees with light to moderate snow. Accumulating on everything but pavement and concrete but just starting to stick on those surfaces now. Winds gusty!

https://www.cocorahs.org/

Early look at some snow totals off CoCoRaHs

Heavy / intense band holding along NJ beaches but making no progress westward to the GSP. All east of the GSP for the intense rates. Radar continues slow shrink NW NJ. Just s-- here. Likely will finish with about 2.5". Will measure at 8:00. Had 2.2" about hour or so ago.

Walt, good to see you back. Everyone has missed you last several days!

Report from buddy in Toms River....12" as of a few min ago.

Not sure about 24"...but 18" seems certain for locations near and east of GSP. Band not making additional westward progress.

Intense band along Jersey shore having trouble making it west of GSP and looks like starting to pivot move N to S. Absolute of heaviest snow likely over west of NJ Tpk., north of 78 and west of 287. That is the absolute heaviest...still some snow left to fall those locations but north of 80 and west of 287 not much additional.

Just about over up here. Not expecting much additional accumulation. Snow shield shrinking slowly and being eaten up by dry air just NW of me. Ared expected to do well is doing as expected.

17 degrees here and 2.2" on the ground. Per radar the precip shield has gotten as far NW into NJ / EPA as it is going to get. Fighting dry air and a north wind. Spots that were targeted to do well are doing well. Radar looks good NJ shore up toward and especially east of the city.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html Heavy Snow Disco from WPC. Sums things up nicely I think. Some of the posts in here this afternoon have been so negative. It is going to snow. There is still question as to where the western edge shaft zone is going to be but this has been in question for days. From coastal NJ to central / eastern L.I. really nothing has changed. This is a significant event. Need to watch this develop to get better idea where the <6" totals start and dwindle down west and north. So far this is not a walk the plank situation some are painting it to be. You have to get those Kuchera numbers out of your head.

Yup to this....except the part about "historic" numbers. Historic in my book are in the top 5 totals of all time.

That pretty much reflects what I'm thinking with some possibly locally higher amounts NJ coast and east end.

Could not agree more with this. I'm not changing the amounts I put out 24 hours ago based on what I've seen from 12Z guidance. It is coming down to nowcast time. Fire up you SPC meso link. I'll look at 18Z and 00Z guidance just because. This all coming down to final phase evolution. I don't agree with dual low solution. Going to be one consolidated center I just don't know when and where that is going to happen and track. 12"+ amounts still very much on the table eastern sections of CENTRAL and SNJ - up through central / eastern LI and up to southeast New England. Within that swath local amounts of 18"+ still also very much on the table for parts of easternLI and SE NE. Time to watch satellite, soon the radar trends, pressure and HT falls. Could this bust some, sure but there is still upside potential depending on sfc / upper air evolution. Wipe the Kuchera map totals out of your memory, they were never happening. Did anyone REALLY think 40"+ amounts were going to verify coastal NJ, LI and SE NE? WX/PT just did nice post on amounts and my thinking is pretty much in line with that. Maybe a shade lower. Matches up with what I thought yesterday morning and again stated here.

Remember 83 like yesterday. LFM was east of Hatteras. Obs late morning had southeast wind at Hatteras. High DP / moisture laden air mass being rammed into cold arctic dome. Progress of snow northward was painfully slow. Took 2-3 hours to get from Staten Island to Mid-Town Manhattan. Once it started it came in like a wall. Thunder snow lasted for hours. Intense rates with large flakes. Storm was weak...made it to east of ACY and turned ene OTS. Had 21" in Bayonne and that fell mostly in a 12 hour period. Different setup than this for sure but was a classic nowcasting situation.

Yes, especially the central to western parts of those counties. Unless changes as event starts to unfold.