MANDA

S/W is into the U.S. grid this morning so 12Z models have first sniff of those soundings. Will be interesting to see what CMC and EURO do. Should start to get clear trends soon. NW of I95 don't get your hopes up for big numbers...coastal sections still in the game.

A few things: Forget about the Kuchera snow maps. They seldom apply and do not apply in this case. 00Z and 06Z EURO definitely ticked east op and ensembles. Probabilities for 12"+ maximize along the NJ coast at about 40% and fall to less than 20% over NW Jersey. Probabilities for 18"+ also obviously also maximize along the NJ coast at about 25% and fall quickly as you go NW. These probabilities are down slightly from 12Z and 18Z yesterday. Ensemble "counts" have also slipped. In my opinion the EURO has definitely trended less favorable, and the changes mostly impacts areas west of I95. For coastal sections, NYC metro and LI still showing a big hit. Still 48-60 hours to go but guidance has got to start some sort of capitulation soon. The closer you get to the event the less likely you are to see significant shifts. Strong feeling on my part is that western and northern areas of this forum as going to be left out of the big numbers, high confidence on that. Not 100% but at least 75%. Coastal sections will do better but I'd temper expectations of amounts in excess of 12" and even more so in excess of 18". Trends last 24 hours do not support it and if you factor in the CMC and GFS they really don't support it. I'm riding more of a EURO solution and think CMC and GFS will trend better and the EURO will trend more eastward. Time will tell but model solutions are going to have to move one way or the other over the next 2 days.

Not saying is right, wrong or close but that NAM (yes, much beyond its best range) has classic KU written all over it.

Yes, NW of MMU on eastern edge of Lake Hopatcong in Mt. Arlington. At this point I'm not expecting my location to be in max totals but am watching this event with great interest just for the dynamical aspects of what could be.

Also from 18Z EPS the probabilities for 18"+ is 40-45% over east central NJ and 30% in and around NYC metro. Not shabby for 72-84 hours out. Again, strong signal.

Aware of past over amplifications. Not sure if that has been corrected or not. Only counter to that is there is at least moderate support from ensembles for very significant totals over parts of this forum. Exactly where is yet to be determined.

Lakehurst: Control is 25" and mean 13". 30 members at or over 12 27 members at or over 18" 11 members at or over 24"

18Z Euro individual members just as robust if not more robust than 12Z. Control is 20" NYC and mean is about 11". 29 of 51 member at or over 12". 12 members at or over 20". Signal from Euro remains strong. Control still targets SNJ with 20-25" at 10:1. Not locking into any one solution by any means but I'm impressed with persistence of op euro and ensembles up to this point. Some of the ensemble members are total crush jobs.

Mt. Holly disco is conservative for sure. Giving little love to the Euro. OKX is more bullish. Time will tell. All options still on the table. The s/w tops the ridge out west tomorrow. I'm interested in 00Z runs tonight but really interested in the 12Z runs tomorrow.

The insane part is: a) the rather tight clustering b) the slow movement and c) the looping motion of the sfc low It is no wonder the individual ensemble members offer the lofty snow totals.

EURO individual members for Central Park. About as impressive as you can ask for at this juncture. Makes a major fail seem unlikely. Odds significantly raised this EURO cycle for decent event into NYC metro. Caveat.....ensembles can and do move so I'm not taking this to the bank at this point. Will be key once the energy tops the western ridge and gets into sounding network if EURO (or for that matter GFS/CMC) make any abrupt swings. If EURO can hold tonight and then duplicate tomorrow will feel better. CMC and GFS will then also have to start adjusting west. I'm encourged by ensembles but no way is this a lock.

EURO M still have nice solid signal just not as far west as control. Still lots of time for what WILL BE adjustments in the final outcome.

Euro control not at all that different from op. Should have individual members son.

Control is insane. Saturday 18Z centered near Montauk at 967 and then sits and does a tight loop for next 6 hours before it starts to lift into the southen Gulf of Maine early Sunday.

Euro control coming in now and it looks like it is gonna rock and roll once again. In though 96 hours - 12Z Saturday with sfc low at 976 east of Ocean City and south Montauk.

Was still in high school but had access to the data. Yep, 72HR Spectral did a great job and it was a super success for the LFM which had a long string of failures. LFM never wavered. Still have some of the old (now nicely yellowed) difax charts. Was walking on air as a kid and watching the progress of the LFM cycles.

Looking at the GFS / CMC the track HAS shifted west from the 00Z runs for sure. That alone is not going to get it done at least for locations west of I95. Those two models are too late of a complete phase / bombing thus they would result in not a big deal event at all west of I95 and a so-so event for immediate metro. Central and eastern L.I. and SE NE would fare MUCH better. Make no mistake for this entire forum to meet or exceed expectations of 12"+ this has to close and capture further SW than indicated by current GFS / CMC. Long ways to go but these two solutions are possible. Main take away here is consensus is increasing for bombing low off or along the MA OR NE coast.

If 12Z euro can stay in the same ballpark and CMC/GFS can at least have some favorable trends then the RGEM and Euro maybe starting to sniff something out. KEY is going to be once s/w over the pacific makes it into the grid 12Z tomorrow and is fully sampled. That piece of energy and how it evolves is the major moving part in how and where this goes boom. Based on latest RGEM (which looks great) I would expected an interesting GGEM run shortly.

I'm not hyping the Euro control so don't take it that way. Should be treated as just another member. 06Z control continues very impressive and now has all of NJ in close to or just over 20" totals. Individual eps members also have increased in the number with now 17 members with 12"+ for KMMU. Showing a shift westward of higher totals. Two members @ 24 - 25". I like that Euro EPS is holding steady or even nudging west. That is the only take away here. Control is classic KU closing / capturing solution for NJ. Longs ways to go...just sharing some information here. Also, probabilities are rising as per a few posts back from another poster. I've been watching those over the last 24 hours as well.

Full EPS won't be out for a bit but EURO Control, while not as robust and intense as 18Z has southern half of NJ covered by 18-20" and that tapers to about 11-14" faw NW Sussex Cty with NYC and LI under 15-20". Mean is similar to 18Z with 10-12" eastern 1/3 of NJ up across NYC and LI. In both cases track is up toward MVY / ACK. Main difference from 18Z is more progressive sfc low and less capture and stall for a time. As a result, sfc low not quite as insanely intense as 18Z solutions. Still much time to watch and track this and no solution presented from 00Z runs are final. Like that EURO has had two good runs but long ways to go with a very delicate situation. SEE MAPS IN POST ABOVE

Most pay sites offer them. JFK control is 19". Two 20+ (max 27) and 22 with 12+ out of the 51

For CP: Two are 20+ (max 23) and 21 of the 51 are 12"+

Euro individual ensemble members for BOS are amazing, ISP very robust as well. MMU (my area) 14 of the 51 have 12"+ on a quick glance.

Euro control amazing. Full capture between Montauk and ACK with a 12 hour loop / stall before lifting out. Control should be treated as just one of the ensemble members but shows what could result. 00Z runs should be interesting.

Euro 18Z ensemble mean at 500 looks amazing only to be outdone by the control. Both imply bombing sfc feature abreast of NJ coast heading vicinity ACK Saturday night. PERHAPS a tad too late for interior NJ but control is 18-24" Jersey coast up through central/eastern LI, RI and into eastern Ma. Ensemble mean is 8-12" over same area. Strong signal this far out.