MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Filthy smoke plume over central and eastern Quebec. Thankfully mid and upper flow will keep it the heck out of our area for the foreseeable future.
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I've picked up .20" so far today on my way to my goal of 2" by next Thursday morning.
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Based on all 12Z global models I am not budging on my expectations of local 4" amounts over parts of this forum for period ending 12Z Thursday 6/29. I'll even go a step further and say better than 50% of the sub forum gets 1-2" for the period ending next Thursday 12Z. That might not be enough to please some but with the lack of sun and lack of warm temperatures it will help with the dry conditions. Pattern does not look unfavorable to me for decent totals over the next 6 days. I did not water the garden last night and don't plan on watering tonight.
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Latest Drought Monitor shows expansion of drought conditions over parts of this forum. Moderate drought now showing up over parts of NNJ and eastern LI. Severe drought conditions showing up over parts of MD and south central PA. With upcoming wet pattern over the next week conditions should improve across this forum over the next 2 weeks. For me the wet period was always today through next Thursday. The rain is coming. Patience grasshoppers. I still believe some local 4" amounts are possible across parts of this forum by end of next week. As I said a few days back my goal is 2" during the period 12Z today to 12Z next Thursday. Anything less will be a gross disappointment. Pattern is setting up to deliver some much needed rainfall.
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If I get anything less than 2" between 12Z Thursday - 6/22 and 12Z Thursday - 6/29 I will be extremely disappointed.
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Looks like a bona fide wetter pattern coming up with key ingredients coming into place. Been a long time since we've had a deep layer southerly flow around here. Would not be at all surprised to see some local 4" totals around this forum over the next 7 days. This wetter pattern is going to really help lawns and gardens.
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Naked swirl alert!
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Been watching the NW Atlantic cool for several weeks now and pretty rapidly I might add. Not hearing much if anything about it from other sources. Very impressive chart.
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The "over the top" warmth is really impressive. Been a long while since we've see a cool pool in the NW Atlantic. At a minimum it should help to maybe keep dp's and humidity somewhat in check over the summer if it persists. At least knock them down a bit from where they would have been if the warm pool were present. May also serve to make for less enhanced rainfall Summer into Fall, again if it persists.
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Rainfall last 7 days. Not bad for majority of locations. Central and eastern L.I. probably wishing they did better.
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Been there and done that. Never again. My biggest problem now is black bear roaming through the yard and deer and rabbits eating my flowers. Given the two I'll choose the latter. When they tell you they are obnoxious you know you are going to have issues.
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It sure is legit. People have no courtesy or manners towards others. Show me kids with no manners and I'll show you parents with less. Seen it way to many times.
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Had .31" here today. Did ok for the week, just shy of 1.5". I'll take it. The coolish temps and lack of bight sunny days also helped.
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Just pathetic. All these longer range large rain events go "poof" as we get to go time. Has been going on for months with only a few exceptions. The rain of this past week is only going to go so far as we head into a drier and warmer pattern.
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There is general meso model consensus that if you live in NW NJ, roughly north of 80 and west of 287 you are going to be left wanting. Hopefully we can get a bit of a NW shift. I'm hoping for at least a .50" but that could end up being wishful thinking if trends persist.
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Latest Drought Monitor shows no changes of note for our forum week over week. Expansion of Moderate Drought over PA, WNY and WVA. With the expected rains over the next week our area should at least hold steady if not lose some of the Abnormally Dry classification. Smoke coming in the back door today. Minimal effects, just some mid and high level haze.
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.31" on the day here. Most of that fell this morning/early afternoon. Only about .05" from afternoon showers. I'll call the .31" a win. 1.08" on the week!
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As expected totals were heaviest west and faded east. Eastern PA did well! I'm happy with how we did in my neck of the woods.
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Received .77" here. Grass looks a little less crispy this morning.
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Yes, there are going to be winners and losers today for sure. Convection is hard to predict so I'm hoping I come out on the wetter side of things being more west. Just remember how this event looked 7-10 days ago. So much wetter. Totals were always going to depend on track and placement of upper low and with the track of the upper low much more north and west than what was depicted 7-10 days ago we're going to struggle hard to get an area wide decent rain event today. Hoping mid and late week trends hold for a wetter solution but there is need for caution as it is many days out. I'd rather have a chance though rather than have nothing on the horizon.
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Yep. Also means there will be winners and losers as far as totals go! Seems the further east you go the lesser the chances at meaningful totals, IMO. Anything less than .50" at my location will be a fail.
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I've been holding onto a .5" to 1" rain event and it still seems to be on track.
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Yes and these dry patterns are hard to fully break without a tropical system or the hopeful return of Fall rainy pattern. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. I'm leaning toward the dry pattern more or less persisting. Drought begets drought and drought can beget heat although pattern has been very persistent in keeping heat away so far. Just a NW flow of dry air with trof axis just to our east. Seems ridge is getting ready to build over the southern plains. Hopefully it stays there and does not move bodily east. Not expecting that but we'll see.
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Yes, guidance has been gradually scaling back over the last several cycles. Euro at this point is the only op model offering anything decent. If the Euro fails and the other guidance is closer to reality it will do nothing to ease the dryness. I'm still thinking .50" - 1" is a reasonable possibility. Especially over NNJ. CNJ and SNJ not looking hopeful with developing pattern for next week. THANKFULLY temperatures have been normal or just below. Can't imagine if we had upper 80's+ with bright sunny skies, would be much worse for soil moisture.
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Meanwhile back at the ranch. Latest Drought Monitor shows large expansion of Abnormally Dry into upstate NY and western NJ. Seems to me more of NJ should be in the abnormally dry category!? Large expansion of Moderate Drought across PA. Hope we can get some meaningful rains Monday/Tuesday around here. Badly needed.
