MANDA

TPC had forward motion at 050 degrees earlier today. Latest advisory is a 360 degree heading, about 5-10 miles east of 85W. Suspect landfall is is between 83 to 84 west around or just before sunrise tomorrow.

Said this morning I was expecting to see an eye by sunset....Idalia is trying very hard to get there! Overshooting clouds tops pretty much wrapping around the center for the first time. CDO is rather small and compact though.

Idalia is trying hard based on satellite and radar. Really thought by this time (late afternoon) we would have started to see an eye starting to pop and clear out on satellite. So far recon is not overly impressive.

You knew Katrina meant business when it exited the SW coast of FL more organized than when it came in on the SE coast. That storm just had the look from the get go. Classic "brown ocean" intensification while tracking across the Everglades.

Interesting from NWS Tallahassee. Didn't realize a major had never entered that region before.

Southeast rains. Unusual to see widespread shower / T-Storm activity out ahead of a hurricane like this. Usually sinking air in advance. Looks to me like a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) ongoing. Bands of rain/storms along Fl west coast are more directly related to Idalia.

Pretty much crickets and tumbleweeds around here for the next week or so. Snooze fest weather wise. Would have been real interesting if Idalia made a run up along the Appalachians but no trof deep enough to get the job done.

Solid core developing now. TPC forecast of 125 mph landfall looks solid. I'd say landfall is before daybreak tomorrow, a little sooner that TPC 11am Advisory suggests.

Could not pick a better place to landfall in Florida is terms of coastal population and coastal infrastructure. Mostly Wildlife Management areas and marsh. Will keep surge damage / loss to a relative minimum. Inland wind damage is another story. Lots of tree damage and power outages on tap.

Very much agree!

Thinking along same lines on possible adjustment to the right in track and for the same reason you mentioned, though not thinking as far to the right as Sarasota. Pine Island maybe? IMO not concerned about any dry air, atmosphere looks moist ahead (especially if track is more to the right) and if there is some dry air entrained from the SW it should be able to get mixed out quickly with increasingly favorable jet divergence aloft.

From the looks of things Idalia is getting ready to launch. Satellite and radar looking quite impressive. Idalia is just getting ready to cross into the southern GOM. I said about 36 hours ago if she can have a core established by that time the stronger solutions will play out. Looks to be entering the GOM as an intensifying Tropical Cyclone. Once she center clears western Cuba I think we are going to be in for a show. Also, IMO I think the nudges westward in the track guidance are over. Looking at WV loop the small upper low over the FL Panhandle is moving east and lifting out. Idalia should follow in that general direction as upper trof dropping through the GL/Upper Ohio Valley eventually takes over the shunts her east off SC/NC coast. Landfall I believe is 25 miles either side of Cedar Key. No doubt in my mind though that the lid is going to come off the pot soon.

Watch for little nudges to the right in future TPC updates. Any nudge to the right ups the ante for surge into Tampa Bay. Also watch for potential bumps up in the intensity forecast. Will have a much better idea on both track and ultimate intensity by this time tomorrow. Potential here for the most significant surge into Tampa Bay in a long time. Much depends on exact track but not likely this is going inland south of Tampa to keep them out of a surge problem. Next several model cycles with all the data from synoptic missions fed in should offer better idea on estimated landfall point.

Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm. Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean. If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go. If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down. If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned!

I've seen so many systems NAMED that did not look near as good as this!

Yes, it is humid here today but man it could be worse!

1.36" rainfall here.

The ones that are struggling / weak on their way in tend not to be disrupted as much as something with a well developed core. Just my opinion. I've seen this happen in the past. If it is weak and in a moist lower shear environment it tends to fair better. We'll see what it does in the days ahead but seems to me it should reach hurricane intensity without much trouble. Franklin will tally up some ACE points.

Franklin looking very healthy as it crosses DR/Haiti. Nice outflow and banding. Low shear and warm water ahead should get Franklin to Hurricane status with not much trouble.

For longevity for sure, tracked for 10 days. Intensity was ho-hum and it was out of the deep tropics. Still counts I get it but so far this season we've seen mainly weak and short lived systems. Says much about how unfavorable things have been atmospherically speaking. Franklin only hope in the coming days of racking up some ACE points. We'll see what condition he is in after emerging from DR/Haiti.

Emily, Gert and Harold had a combined total of 1.4 ACE points. Just throwing it out there for those of us who care about such things. IMO Gert was a waste of a name. At best was a borderline Tropical Cyclone and TPC held onto the designation way beyond what it should have been if it ever should have been. Emily was legit for a short time as was Harold. I suspect if Harold had about another 12 hours over water would have reached Hurricane status. Looked good coming onshore based on radar and satellite. Lots of names but not much sizzle so far this season.

Evapotranspiration a.k.a. "corn sweat" in high gear.

Gotta feel sorry for the folks out in the central U.S. Heat indexes 115-120 in spots! Nasty stuff.

Might be less than 2 ACE points between them when all is said and done. Gert will hang on until 5 pm as a named system only because they didn't pull the plug at 11, which they easily could have done. Looks pathetic.

Emily was legit for a short time and Gert was an absolute joke. Never would have been named back in the 70's, 80's or 90's. There is just more of this going on in recent years. System in the Gulf "has the look" but will run out of water before it can get out of hand. Thinking it will be designated at least a depression and MAYBE a TS. Regardless, it will bring much needed rainfall to Texas. Franklin only one of the bunch that will generate any meaningful ACE points. Any comparison of this "burst" of names to 1995 is absurd.