MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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I think they will.
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Potentially yes, but not until mid next week or so.
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Totally understood, was just trying to convey I was not expecting it to stay at cat 4 / 5 levels for an extended period of time and certainly not to once north of the islands. Would even be surprised if after the ERC is complete if it got back to near peak or peak.
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It has to weaken, you are not going to keep this pristine environment that long. Will be a huge wave and swell producer for east coast and Atlantic Canada but this is not going to hang onto cat 4 / 5 status once north of the Islands. The environment and overall pattern does degrade.
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Nice dual outflow channels with northern one evacuating into an atmospheric sink.
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They looked at the latest satellite and said "hell no"
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Wet times ahead with potential moderate to severe flooding for western and NW sections of this forum into parts of New England. Good thing it has been on the drier side lately. This is without anything from Lee. Still seems more likely than not that there is no effect from Lee as far as wind and rain for the east coast but that is not a lock IMO.
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Just amazing! Wish recon could of been in there from earlier this morning. Would have loved to see actual pressure and wind data. I think though that it is just coming into travel range....about 50W is when they usually begin recon.
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Lee is on his way to something special!
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Super impressive core organization.
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Agreed! Thankfully the September sun angle helps a little, would have felt worse with a July sun angle. Impressive though.
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Classic RI satellite signature !
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Will be interesting to see over the next 2-3 (12Z / 00Z) model cycles if the synoptic mission data causes any notable shift in track forecast. If Lee travels near or over the impressive cold wake left by Franklin it will be well off peak before it would affect Bermuda. If it stays south and west of that it would hold onto major status longer. Regardless, it will be generating huge waves and swells next week that will be an issue for the U.S. east coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada down the road. Not to mention the Islands in the coming days.
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Fascinating stuff to follow.
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Latest 7 day QPF from WPC. Reference post from Walt early this morning. Looks like a wet time for the NW and western sections of this sub forum over the next 7 days. Pretty much the same places that have been drenched the most all summer long. We better hope Lee stays out of the picture because any excessive rainfall from a tropical system (especially over these western and NW sections and New England) would not be a good situation. Very likely Lee does stay away but not guaranteed at this point. Regardless, some wet weather for parts of this sub forum over the next week to 10 days.
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Long ways to go but here are latest EPS (Tropical Models) and Intensity Guidance. EPS does show a cluster staying more south and coming further west. More so than prior cycle.
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Had a low here of 47 this morning. Along with a light breeze it was legit light jacket for a time earlier this morning. Walpack dipped to 42.
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Wow, quite a string of warm Septembers! Great stats...thanks! I suspect we end this September above to continue the streak! We'll see.
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Low of 56 degrees here this morning with s brisk breeze and low humidity! Really nice. I know the heat is coming next week but I'll take this while it lasts.
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Pretty scary. https://twitter.com/i/status/1696958390289805663
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https://twitter.com/i/status/1696886125103608002 Cedar Key
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Interesting.
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https://twitter.com/i/status/1696857231780700670
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Before and after picture Horseshoe beach surge.
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We'll see if the extreme wind warning now in effect over the swath of FL gets extended NE into SE GA.
