MANDA

Still a remarkable lack of rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days on most of the latest guidance. Lawns in partial to full sun in my area that are not being watered are browning QUICKLY. Planted flowers and vegetables being watered every second to third day. Potted plants needing water daily or they wilt.

Pattern next 2-3 weeks looks dry with temperatures averaging near normal. Trof axis in the mean looks to center near or just off the northeast coast. That would favor a dry and warm NW flow. Readings of 90+ look to be very limited through at least June 15th. Would not expect more than 1-3 days of 90+ at CP over the next 15-20 days. This dry pattern is not going away anytime soon and it stinks. The hose and the sprinkler system are my new best friends.

Just nasty if you are gardener or have ag interests.

I saw that but didn't want to go there. Kind of far out there but we need the overall pattern to break so it might be correct! Until we get the persistent above normal heights away from the northeast and adjacent parts of Canada and the Atlantic I don't see potential for change to a more frequent wetter pattern. At this point I'd welcome some south or southwest return flow to pump up the moisture for a front to act upon. Just looks like a rather dry and turning warmer west to northwest flow aloft.

Nice clean and smoke free air mass for a change. All the smoke has been pushed south and WAY south at that into parts of the gulf coast states. Unfortunately with the continued lack of rain the bright sun will continue to dry the top soil. As SACRUS suggested no meaningful rain prior to 6/2 or 6/3. Whole lot of drying between now and then. Will be watering frequently.

Guam got very lucky at the last minute. We'll see how many of these monsters are generated this season with the strengthening Nino.

Had .03" rainfall last evening. Meaningless.

At least in my opinion I find these extended dry periods beyond annoying. Pattern has been repeating for a while now. Next 10 days look generally dry and with 10 day dry stretches it does not take long for the soil to dry. Only saving grace lately has been "cooler" weather and persistent haze with some clouds. You get a 10 day dry stretch with bright sun and temperatures in the m/u 80's + and grass and gardens left without irrigation will crisp quickly.

Yep, back to the dry pattern. Feel bad for the folks that did benefit in a meaningful way from the rain this past weekend. Back to watering the garden and the lawn. Thankfully temperatures are being held in check for now, no complaints in that department from me. I'll take this over 90+ any day.

Nasty smoke plume persists over the northern plains stretching across the GL into parts of the NE. Those Canadian fires have been going on for about 3 weeks now I think. Smoke advisories and air quality alerts across parts of MT.

Had .48" rainfall here. Double what I was expecting. I'll take it. Once to the Delaware River amounts dropped off to near nothing. The wetter models over NJ were very overdone and the drier models were underdone. Long Island into SNE did the best which is what nearly all the guidance had.

Just some light rain and mist here now. Did have a period of moderate rain a while ago that got me to .28". Radar says anything else will come from the front later. Looks like that will move through rather quickly but additional showers or a period of rain likely. I reached where I expected to be so anything else is gravy on the biscuit.

Same here. Still hoping I can crack the .25" mark with some additional showers later on associated with the front.

Just .04" so far. Not surprised. Hoping for some heavier showers later with the front. I'll be thrilled if I can get .25". Something is better than nothing. Long Island will be the winner here when all is said and done.

Looking at the latest WV loop a potent kicker over the western Lakes and southern stream S/W progressing steadily along should serve to keep moisture plume over eastern NC and offshore waters moving more eastward than northward. No real sign of western edge of mid and high level moisture making it more westward since this morning. Sharp western edge and has not made any progress to the left. I'm in the model camps that are featuring drier west and wetter east. Generally favoring .25" to .50" for most of NJ with the .25" closer to the Delaware and the .50" closer to GSP....as a rough guide.

+ we need the rain. If we had been in a wetter pattern up until now nobody would be mentioning this except for the fact it might rain on a weekend day. Gardening and ag interests need rain.

Undeniably a first class "cold" shot for this time of year. Not only for the numerous record lows across the Northeast this morning but for afternoon highs yesterday and today. Quite impressive.

Yep! Not surprised and not unexpected.

Still a nasty smoke plume ongoing from Canadian forest fires.

As I said yesterday (and latest guidance has done little to change my mind) my expectations are low for beneficial rains this weekend. Especially from the city westward. The weekend threat is the only game in town. If we miss meaningful rain this weekend looks as though we have to wait until around or after the Memorial Day weekend. Have not looked at ensemble data last day or so but there was some decent support a few days back for a wetter end to the month. Hope so. Top soils are very dry.

Canadian forest fires still raging. Smoke plume still widespread. North of our area today.

I'd like to see the CMC come on board. Red flag until it does. It and the EURO are night and day. CMC is not the crap model the GFS is so until it starts to generate some qpf I'm not buying into the robust EURO. CMC seems more plausible given the overall pattern. Maybe not zero QPF but something less than the EURO is generating with time.

Agreed. I sure hope Saturday late into Sunday can produce but not overly optimistic. The lawn on the south facing side of my house is starting to "crisp" and top soil is very dry in the garden beds. Need almost daily watering. Thankfully pattern is keeping temperatures in check because if we were into m/u 80's with this dry pattern it would be worse. Reservoir levels are fine. Ag and home gardeners are having to water on a regular basis at this point.

Tough pattern for gardeners. Seems like feast or famine in the rainfall department lately.

If that EPS is close to correct (360 hours out so) temperatures at or just above normal and rather dry.