MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Signal for strong storm is there and confidence increasing on that. Long ways to go on the details. Big snows for this forum far from a lock this far out. Not all blocking patterns deliver the snowy goods. Many options possible this far out. Personally my confidence is high on a noteworthy storm over the eastern third of the U.S. A KU or even meaningful snow (>6") threat is low at this point. We'll see what the EPS show shortly. Still interested but not excited. Will be interested to watch trends starting 12Z runs Monday.
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I'm interested in how this evolves but a long way from excited.
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None of the 51 members (or the OP) of the EPS are really excited (as of yet anyway) despite the impressive looking 500 mb. anomalies. At least as of now none of them seem to be sniffing out anything noteworthy in terms of snow for THIS FORUM. Control is off the rails for Central and Northern New England and upstate NY but nothing so far is suggestive of a KU type event or any event of note for that matter for our forum. Control does have soaking 1-2" rain event here next weekend. Not at all saying pattern is not interesting and does not need to be watched but as of now needs to trend better to deliver the goods this far south.
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Posting these for NO OTHER REASON than to watch trends over the next 7-10 days. Four of 51 members pop the cork on a 12"+ event centered around 3/11. Let's see where this heads in the coming days. Will be encouraging to see more members go up once inside 7 days especially on EURO and CMC. The trends from day 10-12 into days 5-7 have not been favorable this year.
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Meteorological Winter Temperature rankings for Mt. Holly climate sites.
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Links to PNS from Upton and Mt. Holly: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi
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Final total here was 5". Nearly doubled my seasonal total. Up to 10.8" for the season.
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Snowing moderately to heavy at times once again. Just measured and up to 2.2”.
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Rt. 280 closed at Exit 8 due to 15 car pileup including a tractor trailer. Use caution out there! Stay safe. Lull here. S- - currently with temp up a bit to 27.9. Two small foxes frolicking in the snow in the yard.
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Soon closing in on 1”.
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Picked up .60" over the last 30 min. Total so far .70". Temperature 27.7 with mostly S- to some S at times.
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There are several but here is one: COD NEXRAD: DIX
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Bordering on S+. Coming down at a good clip. Temperature still slowly falling. 27.7.
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Moderate snow. 28 degrees. .10” since steady snow began about half hour ago.
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S-- Temperature 29.4 Lightest dusting on the deck.
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Flurries just began. Based on radar will just be flurries or S-- then a break before more widespread precip shield moves in a bit later on.
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5:45 and radar is pretty robust overhead. Nothing reaching the ground as of yet. Temperature down to 33.
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High here today of 45. Currently down to 35.
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Latest WPC Heavy Snow and Icing discussion. I am thinking along the lines of 4" to MAYBE as much as 6" for my location if we can get into most favorable lift after mid-night and before dawn. That will be a now casting situation. Meanwhile expect to see the first flakes between 6pm - 7pm. Air mass is dry so will take a bit for initial radar echos to reach the ground.
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Same here since mid-morning. Based on radar you would think steady light snow for hours now. Just one lone snow shower that left the slightest coating and that was about 11 am or so. Nothing since. Not expecting much for rest of this "event" as best echos are moving past my area.
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What a waste of atmospheric energy.
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Feeling confident we get to #1. Don, Saw your sensitivity analysis for February temperatures. Took a notable jump up over the last 1-2 days. The winter that keeps on giving.
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Nothing we don't already know but always an interesting read. https://www.njweather.org/content/does-anybody-really-know-what-month-it-january-2023-recap
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Quite the recovery indeed.
