MANDA

1.87" rainfall here last 24 hours. Was 56 at 5am and currently 41.

Interesting to note: The first half of the month was not as mild as originally forecast and the last half of the month does not look as cold as originally forecast. Consequently there was little warmth to erase starting at mid month and as it looks now the month will finish a degree or so below normal. There has been a rather consistent chill near to just below normal for most of the month after the milder opening. The coming cold shot looks to ensure we finish just below normal. There was a time earlier in the month when it was questionable if the cold second of the month would get us to normal or below. As it turns out there was not much warmth to erase. Without the coming cold shot we probably would have finished flat give or take a tenth or two.

Good grief. This thread is sinking faster than cement shoes in the Hudson.

Interesting stats. Courtesy Dr. Ryan Maue. I remember December 1989 vividly. Also remember what followed for the rest of the winter. Ugh. December 23, 1989 had heavy snows coastal SC/NC followed by bitter cold. Was an amazing Arctic discharge.

Tatamy and NorthShore. I also remember that event so well. I was 14 years old. It was a Monday morning, and I went to bed Sunday night with temperatures in the m/u 50's. Woke up early in the morning Monday to the sound of thunder and lightning. Laid in bed a bit and then heard the wind howling, more flashes of lightning. Did not hear any rainfall and thought that was odd. Got up and looked out the window and there were blizzard conditions. Checked my Taylor thermometer and it was 17 degrees. Blizzard conditions raged for about 2 hours. Only about 2" snow but wind howled for hours, and temperatures held in the teens all day. Lived near the Bayonne waterfront and went for a walk along the shore late morning. Everything was encased in frozen spray and the bay was raging with whitecaps. Great little event often forgotten.

Was in Central and Southern part of Morris County all day. Just a trace to a tenth or two Morristown and Chatham area. Returned home to a 2.7" plastering. Was expecting 1-2" so overachieved. Main roads in town wet to slushy. Side roads snow covered and packed. Temperature 32 currently with S-/IP- currently falling. Accumulation is done.

Pattern is poised to have the feature over SW Canada belly under the NE Canada HT anomaly and dig into the Ohio Valley and then head east before lifting NE. Impressive look.

I like how the western ridging has been trending inland over the last 2-3 cycles. Would like to see final outcome be about 110W but trending inland from OFF the west coast as in a few cycles back is a big step in my opinion. PNA going positive is also something we've needed. No matter, the 500 MB evolution on all of the mid and long range guidance is a great signal for major east coast storm THREAT. Details yet to be resolved but dynamic pattern upcoming.

Just for kicks compare the 12Z EURO from yesterday to 12Z run today at 500 over the eastern U.S. Just tremendous swings on all the guidance of late. Will see what ensembles show for 12/22 - 12/23 event. Would like the western ridge to be move over the Rockies but ways off and things will change. Hopefully in our favor so the coast can cash in on something before Christmas. Inland certainly in the game at this point.

Totally agree 10/10. Would just like to see the ridge axis more over the inter mountain region. Too far west for my liking but WAY early and I'm not taking a 183 hour prog verbatim.

I'll take this over the 12Z OP EURO from yesterday. Not ideal but at least we don't torch over Christmas weekend. Nice to see the OP and EPS in better sync overnight. That is true Arctic HP extending into the nations mid-section. Will spread / ooze eastward but by far the direct discharge is down the front range into the plains and down to Texas. I'd rather this honestly. More direct discharge into the east leads to suppression and cold and dry. This opens the door for opportunity with the 12/22 - 12/23 event, at least inland and then perhaps beyond for larger part of this forum.

I was full on board for an interesting period 12/20 - 12/31. That has always been my target period of interest. EURO is concerning I have to say. Going to take a wild swing to get rid of the western trof and southeast / eastern ridge. That OP EURO taken verbatim is a disaster. If it is showing a similar solution 3 days from now for the Christmas period we are in trouble and may have to face the fact the the U.S. east of the Mississippi may not benefit from all this blocking. Have said all along we need the +PNA, however weak to benefit. Will be interested to see the ensembles shortly. System on Thursday is not going deliver any meaningful snow to the vast majority of this forum. Along and north of Rt. 80 / west of 287 into interior southeast NY and CT have a decent chance of 1-3" or 2-4" amounts especially higher elevations. Overall I'm thinking amounts less than or equal to what fell on Sunday. We'll see but I'm getting concerned for the last third of the month delivering what we're all wanting. Not closing the door just yet but this is not what I expected to see at this date for 10 days out. What I am fairly confident about is a first class Arctic outbreak coming into the U.S. down the front range of the Rockies and out onto the plains and south into Texas. Perhaps rivaling some of the great Arctic blasts. Perhaps near record high pressure nosing southeast from the high Arctic into the central U.S.

Ended up with 1.2" total snowfall. Liquid equiv. = .29". Snow total somewhat lower than immediate surrounding area but that's what is was. Looks pretty out this morning.

Closing in on 1". Currently 30.6 degrees. Still light snow ongoing. Per radar back edge should clear my area shortly. Was expecting about 1" for my location so I'm happy with what I got. Looks nice outside and adds to the holiday feel. With some breaks of sun tomorrow and afternoon highs in the upper 30's not expecting it to last all that long.

Currently 31, never broke freezing today. High on the day 31.8. Still light snow but much smaller flakes than what has occurred since this morning. Up to .50". The sun had just about set a bit earlier and immediate accumulations started on pavement. Roads (at least my very quiet and untreated road) is completely covered. No sun angle issues this time of year!

Currently 31.4 degrees. Total snow so far .30" on all but paved/concrete surfaces. Bursts of light snow with large flakes.

Except maybe the meatballs and sausage browning in the frying pan!

Currently 30 degrees and Trace snow so far. A few bursts of BRIEF light snow (large flakes) have whitened the grass, deck. See picture recently posted by Tatamy...it looks like that here. Perhaps a tad less. Nice to see though.

This has been may target period all along so hoping it works out! Becoming increasingly interested in this end of December opening of January period. Nice to finally see +PNA down the road. We NEED that to evolve. Trace snow here so far today. Few brief bursts of light snow / large flakes that have whitened the grass and deck etc.

Posting for informational purposes only (KMMU) user can draw their own conclusions from this model cycle. CMC offers some robust model members. EURO offers far less. GFS (FWIW) not overly impressive either. Long ways to go and many changes lie ahead. There is going be a 2ndary development but beyond that the details on track / ptypes a long ways from being determined. For my part still leaning on more freezing / frozen ptypes NW of PHL/NYC/BOS corridor.

Would kind of agree with this as the Euro tends to leave too much energy over the SW in phasing situations. It is a known bias. Once you factor that into a forecast and the EURO catches on it does better than the GFS in that it will stick to a solution that is closer to reality. Even if the GFS latches onto the phase first it still swings wildly with the track, at least most of the time. GFS has known bias of being too far east initially with major coastal storms only to trend then back to the west in the days leading up to the event. Sometimes may have to wait until 48 hours for GFS to latch onto a hit. If the GFS has no other model support I tend to take it with a very large grain of salt. As is the case with the event slated for later this coming week.

Like I said several days back the GFS is a follower, not a leader. Can't remember last time it was first to the party in forecasting a significant weather event. It flips and flops from one run to the next. Its ensembles are the better way to go beyond day 3-4 but even they can have big swings. No matter there is significant potential later in the coming week. As I said yesterday I'm leaning more towards freezing and/or frozen precip especially inland areas. If some of the ensembles are on the right track could be a significant Arctic shot in the days centered around Christmas.

Been a signature for this on a few runs now but yes impossible to pinpoint from this far out. Most of the time they are over modeled.

Evolving pattern has potential. Ensembles (MMU attached) look promising. Bigger question for me is do the positive temperature departures we've racked up so far this month (+4 to +5 degrees) get completely wiped out by the end of the month. Don't think we quite make it but it is possible. Places along and north of Rt. 80 and west of 287 still look like they could pickup C-2" amounts, especially highest elevations with the Sunday night - Monday morning event. Then we move onto the potential late this coming week. Way to early for those details but in my mind colder and more frozen precip is the way to lean right now, especially inland.

Nice look and closing in on -10 days for a change. Lets see if the general theme holds in the days ahead. Perhaps start date is just before the 12/20 I've been thinking. I believe Monday system has potential for N & W of NYC. Likely not the extreme of 00Z GGEM but something on the order of C-2 or maybe 1-3 north of Rt. 80 and west of 287 in NJ. That is my early thinking. Any POSSIBLE accumulation for the coast will have to depend on 500 trending very favorably and rapid sfc intensification. Not expecting this to pull off the extreme solution but worth watching for N & W.