MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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As I said yesterday (and latest guidance has done little to change my mind) my expectations are low for beneficial rains this weekend. Especially from the city westward. The weekend threat is the only game in town. If we miss meaningful rain this weekend looks as though we have to wait until around or after the Memorial Day weekend. Have not looked at ensemble data last day or so but there was some decent support a few days back for a wetter end to the month. Hope so. Top soils are very dry.
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Canadian forest fires still raging. Smoke plume still widespread. North of our area today.
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I'd like to see the CMC come on board. Red flag until it does. It and the EURO are night and day. CMC is not the crap model the GFS is so until it starts to generate some qpf I'm not buying into the robust EURO. CMC seems more plausible given the overall pattern. Maybe not zero QPF but something less than the EURO is generating with time.
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Agreed. I sure hope Saturday late into Sunday can produce but not overly optimistic. The lawn on the south facing side of my house is starting to "crisp" and top soil is very dry in the garden beds. Need almost daily watering. Thankfully pattern is keeping temperatures in check because if we were into m/u 80's with this dry pattern it would be worse. Reservoir levels are fine. Ag and home gardeners are having to water on a regular basis at this point.
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Tough pattern for gardeners. Seems like feast or famine in the rainfall department lately.
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If that EPS is close to correct (360 hours out so) temperatures at or just above normal and rather dry.
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Agree. On the upside the grass seed I planted is in little danger of being washed away by downpours before it sprouts. Other than that a little to dry for gardeners.
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Should keep temperatures more or less in check and pattern dry on NW flow.
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Smoke plume from the Canadian wildfires has generally shifted southward last 24-36 hours. Sky may be hazy at times today as smoke from those fires impinges on our area. Nice April summary for NJ: https://www.njweather.org/content/odd-one-april-2023-recap
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Slowly backing ourselves to June 21 then we SLOWLY start going the other way. Time marches on.
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Three day rainfall totals. Quite hefty totals in spots. Safe to say the short term dryness is over.
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Three day rainfall totals. Quite hefty totals in spots. Safe to say the short term dryness is over.
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Rainfall total last 3 days = 4.11".
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Three day event total = 4.11".
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1.78" here as of 8am. Light rain ongoing. Much welcomed rainfall.
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Latest Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions expanding over the Northeast sector with Moderate Drought now showing up for parts of this forum. Not good to be going into the warm season this dry. Hopes for rainfall over the next 7 days are hinging on Saturday night into Sunday. Based on trends over the last few days I suspect most places will see mainly around 1/2". Some lucky spots maybe around an inch or a bit more but the trend has been for less not more over the last 2 days.
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Yet another month of above normal temperatures. Don, any idea what the record is for NYC for most consecutive months of above normal temperatures. Is there such a record kept? Any way to find out what the most consecutive number of above normal months is? Even if just .10 degree above normal. Just wondering. Thanks as always for you daily updates. Always an interesting read.
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Received 1.34" rain here. Western half of NJ did best with lowest amounts eastern half. Some NJ coastal area communities had little to nothing. Friend in Mt. Laurel had dime to quarter size hail falling for better than 3 minutes. Ground covered.
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Heaviest stuff is just west and southwest of me where they look to be getting drenched. Had a heavy T-Shower and now just light rain that has yielded .30" so far. I'll take it but wanting more!
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Abnormally Dry conditions continue to expand across the area. This excessive warmth is quite the novelty but we need some rainfall. Soils are quite dry in my area. Ground caking in areas that are not mulched.
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Some big brush and wildfires across NJ yesterday and ongoing today. No beneficial rainfall over the coming week or so. Amounts generally look to be around or a bit above .25" for the next week. All this sunny warm weather is nice but we could use a soaking rain.
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As I mentioned yesterday no significant rain in sight.
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The interior of southern half of NJ doing well today.
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Latest Drought Monitor shows slight expansion in Moderate Drought into southwest Delaware and an Abnormally Dry patch has popped up over NW NJ. Little significant rainfall expected over the next week. Only local showers expected with rather warm temperatures for April Hope this pattern changes or we're going to see a dry Spring.
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Agree but the odds of getting that upper air setup in August are much less likely I would think.
