MANDA

Interesting shadow effect to the west of the Hudson Valley.

Thought the Drought Monitor was interesting. The "abnormally dry" conditions across parts of SNJ and L.I. have been lingering since Summer, through Fall and Winter. Kind of unusual. Weather looks pleasant but boring as all get out for at least the next week. No notable rain to wash away the excessive road salt they have been dumping over recent years. Was like driving in a dust cloud on parts of Rt. 80 yesterday.

Reports from CoCoRaHS

NWS ALB totals: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS&format=ci Boston: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202303150428-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

Some totals to envy coming out of Albany office. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS&format=ci also from Boston office https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off I think we can say the pattern delivered and blocking produced. Just did not work out for the best in our area. Pretty much classic Miller B just came together too far north to deliver the goods for this forum. As has been the case all season best totals were along and north of Rt. 80 and west of 287. The 7-9" totals across Sussex County were impressive. Entire forum would have done better if temperatures were about 5-7 degrees colder or if it was about a month earlier. Air mass needed to be just slightly colder and we would have had a better outcome for NYC and the immediate burbs. Not to mention ratios would have been better, especially inland.

Latest Snow Totals per OKX https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202303142233-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX Ended up with 4.8" at my location. Looked real good mid and late afternoon with blowing snow off rooftops and across open spaces. Some "drifted" spots on side of house up to 8-10".

Latest totals from Mt. Holly: Public Information Statement (weather.gov)

Just made the drive from home base east on 80 - south on 287 into Summit / Chatham area. Just trace amounts here. Once east on 80 near exit 35 accumulations really fall off quickly as you lose any elevation. Even at home all roads just wet.

Currently 29.5. Has not moved much since daybreak. Up just .5 degrees. Light snow currently. Has been light to moderate snow all morning. Gusty NW wind. Est. 20-30 mph at times. Blowing snow. Snowfall so far 4.5”. Lesser amounts on streets and walks. Radar has been impressive over NNJ all morning with pseudo CCB especially over western/central parts of NNJ. At higher elevations it is accumulating. I'll add I was only forecasting 4" for my location so my expectations have been met. Anything else is gravy on the biscuit.

3” on unpaved surfaces. Still 29 degrees. Light to sometimes moderate snow. My lightly traveled street has been plowed a few times and is only slightly snow coveted.

Currently 29 degrees. Light snow falling. Total so far is 1.5" on unpaved surfaces. It is sticking everywhere but paved surfaces took longer to start accumulating so depth on those surfaces is less. Looks pretty wintry with the gusty wind blowing the snow around.

I don't even think it is going to have to wait until tomorrow morning. More like 18Z.

LOL - I'm in the bullseye....I'll take it as is please !

Couldn't possibly be any worse than what we've just been through!

ISP and ALB

Some random EPS snowfall members: FWN (Sussex County NJ), MMU, EWR, CPK, ISP, ALB Fully understand this is not 10:1 event for anyone except maybe for ALB area so immediately cut the amounts on the others. There is little ensemble support for anything decent south of 80 and east of 287. Sharp contrast in EPS members from Sussex to MMU to EWR. Areas along and north of 80 and west of 287 have best CHANCE at 6"+. ALB members are what you want to see for area wide heavy snow. For most of this forum support for more than 2" is very weak. UNLESS there is some improvement in EPS tonight and/or 12Z tomorrow this event is likely over for coastal sections and immediate NYC burbs. Still a bit of time but there has been no noticeable uptick in EPS support during recent cycles.

Light snow ongoing. 32 degrees. 3” new snow. 16.6” on the season.

Not that we need to relive the horror that was this past meteorological winter but here is a good summary for NJ climate sites. https://www.njweather.org/content/normally-abnormal-february-2023-winter-20222023-recaps

That didn’t take long! About 8:00 this morning and 3:00 this afternoon.

NNJ snow totals off CoCoRaHS. Some 4" totals just north of my location and some 2.5" totals just south.

1.8” here. Pictures taken 7:45. Nickel and dimed my way to a 12” season. Season to date: 12.6”.

Just seeing subtle changes in EPS from 24 hours ago - slightly faster, slightly flatter and slightly faster moving system for next Sun/Mon. Changes from the 00Z runs are of course more notable. The 00Z OP EURO was an extreme outlier in my opinion. Not much to complain about 6-7 days out. In my opinion trends starting with 12Z runs tomorrow through the ensuing 3 days will be much more telling as to where this potential event is headed. I believe a notable Miller B type system is in the making and would expect guidance to trend that way over the next few days. PTYPE still very much up for grabs across this forum.

Me either and yes somewhat south would be preferred. Some of those members deliver.

12Z EPS snowfall members about the same as 24 hours ago with about 8 members of 51 (16%) offering up noteworthy (10"+) snow at KMMU. With the exception of 7 members all offer significant QPF of 1"+. Many members aoa 2". Confidence still rather high for impactful cyclone moving through the MA and parts of the NE. Posted Control and EPS M 500 mb departures for next Sunday morning. FOR REFERENCE ONLY the Control has sunk notably south and east with anomalies from 24 hours ago. Mean is weaker, faster and more ENE (Central KY to Northern VA)from 24 hours ago. Final verdict is DAYS away on how this evolves. Confidence moderate and growing that impactful storm affects this forum. PTYPE is highly uncertain. Block will do its job and force 2ndary development. That development and track will determine the final outcome. Potential looks to be centered next Sunday into Monday give or take. Per EPS one or two more threats COULD follow this system.

About 8 of 51 members from 12Z 3/3 EPS offer something noteworthy in terms of snowfall at KMMU. An increase from 24 hours ago. Control once again off the rails for central and eastern lakes into upstate NY and Central & Northern New England. Certainly solid ensemble support for a noteworthy storm over the east days 7-9. Overall the 51 members are offering QPF totals of 1 to 1.5" during the day 7-9 day period. A few notably higher. Will be interesting to see how this progresses from the day 7-8 period into the day 5-7 period. All options remain on the table at this point in my opinion.