MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Looks like we finish August with .9 ACE points and a feeble 3.6 is the 2026 total to date. We'll see that September can deliver. Looks quiet for the next 5-7 days as least.
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Really nice out! Refreshing! Overnight low here of 55. Got down to 45 in Walpack and 47 in Sandyston in NW Sussex County.
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The big IF though is if a cohesive LLC remains and goes north of the islands. I think the odds are low but not zero.
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Looks like we are on track to end August with <2 ACE points. Currently sitting at .9 points.
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Picked up .50" rainfall from event that just wrapped up. So glad we avoided anything heavy in my immediate area. Soils are wet and with the declining sun angle they are taking longer to dry out. August rainfall: 8.34". Rainfall Y.T.D.: 41.15". We'll see if wet pattern holds into and through the Fall. Might be headed for a 50" rainfall year. At this point I'm willing to bet on the over.
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Are people still working on a way to try and dim the sun? If I think of any other ways we can "cool" the planet I'll post them.
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Total here for August: 8.12" including .28" that fell earlier this morning.
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Picked up .28" here in two rounds of fast moving T-Showers. Lots of thunder. Wow, school starting early. I can never remember going back until Tuesday or Wednesday after Labor Day. Driving around yesterday I saw some trees starting to show some color, not brown but reddish orange in spots. Fall is coming.
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Agreed. If it can hold the convection overnight and still looks like this on first visible pictures we should have a least a TD by tomorrow 5am....maybe even a TS if we get a good ASCAT pass over the next 6-10 hours. Winds were marginal TS earlier but circulation was not completely closed off, no west wind. This satellite pic looks healthy. Thinking along the lines of TD or TS next 2-3 days then weakening beyond that and perhaps if it can hold together enough some regeneration north of the islands or east of the Bahamas down the road. Most guidance has shifted south and west last few days indicative of a weaker system I believe.
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Can't beat this weather with a stick. Sunny and 57 this morning. Just can't ask for more to close out August.
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Yep. If we are going to add any ACE to August will have to come from 96L and that is struggling this morning. I'm still taking the under on the CSU 2026 seasonal ACE of 50.
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Not looking good but still time for changes. I'm not optimistic at this point though.
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Lunar eclipse coming up late Thursday night into very early Friday morning. Hope the weather cooperates.
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Agreed. Less hostile look midway across but once to 55W conditions deteriorate. Something is going to have to find a "sweet spot" somewhere to be a bigger player. Caribbean still shut down. If something can make it to the SW Atlantic and time a trough correctly or get pushed westward under a ridge then maybe something interesting for U.S.
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Waters off the east coast certainly lost the chill of early to mid summer in a hurry.
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Nice way to end meteorological summer! To me at least out in my area of NWNJ the summer did not seem all that hot. There were hot days for sure but it was not endless day after day to 90+ out this way. Humidity was another story so glad to get break from that.
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I think we could easily go through the rest of August with <5 ACE points. Zero additional ACE points certainly in play but not ready to go that low just yet but certainly possible.
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ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL!
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Solid soaking for everyone. Most guidance did well showing where the max area of rainfall would end up from NYC on east. Was expecting 1-2" here and ended up with 2.14". Lesser amounts just NW of here up into Sussex County with generally 1 to 1.5" up that way. Either way everyone has had enough rain lately! Meteorological Summer which has 10 days left to go has been wet. In some places VERY WET.
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Feels amazing out there. Temperature 59 with a gusty NNE wind. Feels like mid September! Opening the windows tonight! Rainfall for the day: 2.14". August to date: 7.61" Since 7/1: 16.60" Since 6/1: 22.11"
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Don, Just curious. Does that 1.82"/hr. land on a top 10 hourly list for CP? Are the totals from Ida remnants at the top of the list? Thanks-
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Torrential downpours over the last 2 hours or so. Based on radar the heaviest of the rain is through my area. Just light to some moderate rain next 90 minutes or so. Eyeballing the gauge it looks like about 2". That would put me at 7.5" for the month of August so far. Will get an exact measurement about 9:00 or so. Came down is torrents at times. Thankfully the heaviest has passed through and totals around here did not go off the rails.
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Rain has begun here. A few brief heavy downpours but they moved through quickly. Radar filling in.
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Associated discussion and Flash Flood Watch was also lifted slightly north and NW from earlier this morning.
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Feeling FAIRLY confident that my area of NW NJ will escape the heaviest event totals. Guidance has been targeting mainly along and east of I95 for max totals. Will have to watch radar over the next several hours. Key for NW NJ is where downstream convection starts to "ignite". Hopefully it will be near or east of BWI/PHL and then lift and/or train NE leaving NW NJ with just more frontal related rainfall but still with heavy downpours. Can deal with 1 or 2" out this way but 3-5" totals not good for this area. Still very wet out my way. Sitting at 5.5" for August to date here.
