MANDA
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Just in case you were wondering what the status of the 2026 hurricane season is: That is one quiet looking signal from Google Deep Mind going into mid month. If we make it to September 11 with no hurricanes (seems likely) we will break the record for latest in the season with no hurricanes in the satellite era.
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Just in case you were wondering about what the latest Drought Monitor looked like: I think we're all GOOD !
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Picked up .60" here overnight. Total for the month already at 1.55". Looks like a drier pattern for the next 5-7 days. Thankfully.
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What a hot mess that site is. You have to wonder if the precipitation readings are also affected as well as the temperatures. Can't tell what the tree canopy looks like but quite possible it could be affecting the rain gauge. Doubt that tree removal makes anything more than a minimal difference in temperature readings. That little plot of land must have its own micro climate going on. Thanks for the picture.
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Yeah and it looks like several chances of local drenchers coming up this week with CNJ/NNJ favored. What else is new?
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Looks like we finish August with .9 ACE points and a feeble 3.6 is the 2026 total to date. We'll see that September can deliver. Looks quiet for the next 5-7 days as least.
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Really nice out! Refreshing! Overnight low here of 55. Got down to 45 in Walpack and 47 in Sandyston in NW Sussex County.
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The big IF though is if a cohesive LLC remains and goes north of the islands. I think the odds are low but not zero.
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Looks like we are on track to end August with <2 ACE points. Currently sitting at .9 points.
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Picked up .50" rainfall from event that just wrapped up. So glad we avoided anything heavy in my immediate area. Soils are wet and with the declining sun angle they are taking longer to dry out. August rainfall: 8.34". Rainfall Y.T.D.: 41.15". We'll see if wet pattern holds into and through the Fall. Might be headed for a 50" rainfall year. At this point I'm willing to bet on the over.
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Are people still working on a way to try and dim the sun? If I think of any other ways we can "cool" the planet I'll post them.
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Total here for August: 8.12" including .28" that fell earlier this morning.
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Picked up .28" here in two rounds of fast moving T-Showers. Lots of thunder. Wow, school starting early. I can never remember going back until Tuesday or Wednesday after Labor Day. Driving around yesterday I saw some trees starting to show some color, not brown but reddish orange in spots. Fall is coming.
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Agreed. If it can hold the convection overnight and still looks like this on first visible pictures we should have a least a TD by tomorrow 5am....maybe even a TS if we get a good ASCAT pass over the next 6-10 hours. Winds were marginal TS earlier but circulation was not completely closed off, no west wind. This satellite pic looks healthy. Thinking along the lines of TD or TS next 2-3 days then weakening beyond that and perhaps if it can hold together enough some regeneration north of the islands or east of the Bahamas down the road. Most guidance has shifted south and west last few days indicative of a weaker system I believe.
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Can't beat this weather with a stick. Sunny and 57 this morning. Just can't ask for more to close out August.
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Yep. If we are going to add any ACE to August will have to come from 96L and that is struggling this morning. I'm still taking the under on the CSU 2026 seasonal ACE of 50.
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Not looking good but still time for changes. I'm not optimistic at this point though.
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Lunar eclipse coming up late Thursday night into very early Friday morning. Hope the weather cooperates.
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Agreed. Less hostile look midway across but once to 55W conditions deteriorate. Something is going to have to find a "sweet spot" somewhere to be a bigger player. Caribbean still shut down. If something can make it to the SW Atlantic and time a trough correctly or get pushed westward under a ridge then maybe something interesting for U.S.
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Waters off the east coast certainly lost the chill of early to mid summer in a hurry.
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Nice way to end meteorological summer! To me at least out in my area of NWNJ the summer did not seem all that hot. There were hot days for sure but it was not endless day after day to 90+ out this way. Humidity was another story so glad to get break from that.
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I think we could easily go through the rest of August with <5 ACE points. Zero additional ACE points certainly in play but not ready to go that low just yet but certainly possible.
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ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL!
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Solid soaking for everyone. Most guidance did well showing where the max area of rainfall would end up from NYC on east. Was expecting 1-2" here and ended up with 2.14". Lesser amounts just NW of here up into Sussex County with generally 1 to 1.5" up that way. Either way everyone has had enough rain lately! Meteorological Summer which has 10 days left to go has been wet. In some places VERY WET.
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Feels amazing out there. Temperature 59 with a gusty NNE wind. Feels like mid September! Opening the windows tonight! Rainfall for the day: 2.14". August to date: 7.61" Since 7/1: 16.60" Since 6/1: 22.11"
