MANDA

000 WTNT64 KNHC 100057 TCUAT4 Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 800 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...WATER LEVELS RISING RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND... ...800 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge in Panama City Beach, Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.4 feet above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. A wind gust to 102 mph (164 km/h) with a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at Pensacola City Hall. SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 86.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

Not minimizing this in any way but presentation on IR and radar is degrading as it comes in. Not going to make much difference though. At least it is not intensifying right up until landfall. Jet interaction, trof and vorticity interaction will maximize wind and maximize it well inland as well. There is little weather once that northern eye wall plows ashore, which it is doing right now. Not much on the other side of degrading eye. Looks like a two hour window of the worst of it for a given location along the coast. Official landfall should take place around 10pm +/- 30 minutes.

Gonna be rough for the next 90 min or so. Good luck. Hope all goes well for you.

Assuming it does not degrade that northern eye wall will mean business when it reaches the coast in the next 2 hours or so. Actual landfall should occur between 10 and 11 pm.

Not that it is going to make a huge difference but you can clearly see the western edges of the circulation starting to "flatten" as shear is now starting to take hold.

This could be indicative of what is to come in the right quadrent as this comes inland later on and into the overnight. Tornado threat and inland wind damage to trees and power lines likely to be extensive well into Alabama and western GA.

Agree! Stellar day out this way. Near perfect. Only some high clouds keeping it from a top 10.

Doing a darn good job of fighting off the dry air trying to get ingested from the west. Robust convection most of the western half of the circulation. More new convection popping NW on the center. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60w.html https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO2/loop60i.html Northern eye wall looking solid. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=EVX-N0Q-1-48-100-usa-rad

100% true this. I see no sign of dry air or shear having any effect on Isaias yet. At worst it is steady state. I see nothing to support weakening or degradation of the eye or the storm as a whole as of now. Likely has peaked but the expected weakening prior to landfall has not started yet. I was not expecting major from this so intensity has exceeded my expectations. Was thinking high end cat 2 but Isaias has without a doubt reached solid Cat 3 status.

Not a great day no matter how you slice it. More a question of how bad will it be.

Looking good with some nice ventilation going on even in the SW quadrent. Has about 24 hours to maximize itself before shear starts to really impinge.

Best looking system by far this season and close to home. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html Don't think this makes major status and thinking Cat 1 at landfall but spreading out as it landfalls. Jet interactions may make this just as bad or worse inland than at the coast. Winds will extend quite a distance inland with massive power outages. Ground is saturated along the gulf coast to boot. Lots of trees will come down. Tornado threat east of the track is going to be a problem as well. Surge will be the biggest issue at the coast I think. Also think NHC will continue to nudge track east a bit in future advisories. Places near landfall and to the right will get the worst of the winds and surge. West side could have not much going on with a lopsided system. In a more favorable atmospheric season with less shear this storm could have been much much worse. On par with some of the notorious systems of the past.

Same here. We kept the heat off but chilly in here. Overnight low 38 here on top of the hill. Valley spots a few degrees lower. Overall a very chilly morning across NJ:

Never paid attention to this before. Have they always used this color scheme? It is a joke.

GFS is a useless model. Not sure why anyone uses it for anything more than 36-48 hours in advance. It flips and flops like a fish out of water from one run to the next. The big snow event in the Northeast last February was one of the very few times the blind squirrel found the nut.

Dipped to 31 in Walpack overnight. Lots of upper 30's around the state in spots that radiate well. Even as far south as Vineland in far south Jersey. Temperatures per NJ WXNET. Overnight low here was 42 on the top of the hill.

Currently 38 in Walpack and 41 in Sandyston per NJ WXNET. Those places in the NW Sussex County valleys radiate like crazy so sub freezing likely there come Wednesday morning and close to freezing in a few spots tomorrow morning.

No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter. Almost seems like a given at this point. Storminess will abound. Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air. Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line. I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.

Nice graphic. Hard to envision a hurricane coming out of this but a wet TS affecting portions of the Gulf coast seems a like a reasonable expectation at this time.

Just amazing photos as always!

Beautiful morning with nice breeze, blue skies and cool temperatures. Overnight low of 51. Leaf color change becoming rapidly noticeable up this way. Pumpkin spice everything is everywhere. The pick your own apple orchards are hurting with many closed due to the Spring freeze.

Interesting link. Thanks. Will be interesting to see where this season ends up. I would take the over on 17.4 but hard pressed at the moment to see where that comes from. Still time to add ACE. Clock is ticking on getting a hurricane though.

I know 1914 has lowest ACE on record. I consider anything not in the satellite era questionable. In the satellite era what season has lowest ACE?

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.