MANDA

Absolutely perfect sleeping weather. Feels like October! Overnight low here of 48.

At a minimum this upcoming storm was always going to be about a coastal flood threat and strong onshore flow with possible gales. Trends continue to support this. Coastal warnings and advisories are already posted and will likely be extended past the current expiration times. Strong onshore flow for several days / numerous high tide cycles along with a full moon. Still looks to me like the Jersey shore and L.I. Sound get the worst of the coastal flooding / erosion as far as this sub forum are concerned. Eventual surface evolution will determine if this goes past minor / to moderate coastal flooding. Surface evolution will also determine how far inland rain and gusty winds get if they make it inland at all. Complex evolution yet to be determined. If EURO persists with 00Z cycle tonight and is doing something similar at 12Z tomorrow then threat for more effects further inland would increase. Too soon to tell. Something interesting to watch this over the next few days.

GFS flip flops on every single run. It is useless at this time frame IMO. Hopefully by 12Z Thursday or 00Z Friday it has a clue. EURO and EURO AI has been more consistent. Complex evolution that involves a capture so options on final outcome are many at this point. I'm favoring a closer in solution based off superior Euro modeling.

Best bet with this is to watch trends on EURO/EPS/AI. GFS not going to handle this with any kind of consistency for a few more days yet. Going to be a very complex evolution and exactly how it plays out will determine who gets what. I do feel confident in minor to moderate coastal flooding with large onshore fetch over 3-4 high tide cycles with full moon aiding. Still think best chances are along NJ coast, LI Sound and SE New England. All depending on ultimate evolution though. Interesting to watch in the days ahead.

It was 88 years ago yesterday. Can't even imagine if something similar today. Rapid forward speed was unprecedented and aided in keeping intensity up, piling up surge and making the eastern semi-circle truly violent well inland into New England. L.I. landfall pressure was on par with Sandy in NJ. Other big hurricanes followed 1938 affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (1944, Hazel, Donna, Carol, Bob) but 1938 was in a class by itself. As far as population impacts and damage (wind and surge) I'd have to say Sandy comes in second.

Thank you! Totally agree!

2026 Atlantic Season to date: Pretty feeble. Nothing much is likely to change before the end of the month. We'll tack on another tenth or two of ACE before Fay gives up the ghost. The lack of a hurricane this season looks like a lock to continue for balance of September. Will be up to October / November to produce a hurricane.

Does it animate? The "my radar" app that comes with iPhones has been on CarPlay for a while but it will not animate for safety reasons. Let me know if Radarscope does. I'm thinking not?

Rainfall event total here last two days: .44". Humidity dropped off after midnight and this morning was breezy and coolish.

With Fay falling just short we're back on track to keep the record going for latest developing hurricane. Certainly within the realm of possibility now that we make it through September with no hurricanes for the season to date.

Walt! So good to hear from you. We miss you over on the NYC Metro forum. Hope all well with you. My opinion. Minor to moderate coastal flooding especially LI Sound and Jersey beaches and SNE coast. Any winds of note confined to more eastern sections NJ coast out to eastern LI and SNE especially. Same with rainfall more coastal than inland. This is based on the modeling now. Any ticks west this week and interior sections could be more affected by winds and rain. Something interesting to watch.

Yes. Gonna be close. Window has begun to close. If I was to wager I would say Fay does not make it to Hurricane status. Unless there is a Special Update (doubtful) between now and 5am I don’t think it makes it. I highly doubt it would be upgraded at 5am. We’ll see soon enough.

Agreed. This is very close. Amazing we've had to wait until 9/21 and then have it happen out of the deep tropics at 34N and 33W. Pretty fitting for this season. Regardless the hurricane free streak should break with Fay.

I think at a minimum minor to moderate coastal flooding will be an issue before the coming week is over. Days of easterly fetch and coming full moon combined with developing offshore storm / upper level cut off likely to cause issues.

With a moisture rich atmosphere Sunday onward with high PWATS fully expecting locally heavy downpours such as we have seen over the last few months. Rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour are certainly able to produce Flash Flooding conditions especially with very wet soils ongoing at most locations.

Looks like WPC coming on board for a a potentially very wet stretch coming up. Too soon for details on placement of heaviest of the totals but looks like more Flash Flood Watches for some part of this sub forum are in the cards over the next week. PWATS once again modeled to rise to AOA 2". Chances of locally excessive totals for some over the next 7 days increasing.

Have had slight hints of color here for the last 3 weeks. Much more noticeable over the last week or so.

Not to be taken verbatim obviously but it is dropping hints of a possible wet pattern next 2 weeks. Details, timing and placement of wettest locations TBD.

Lemon. Orange. Lemon. Orange. Lemon. Feel like I'm watching a slot machine in Vegas.

Agree. Hopefully we can time some cold air and a favorable storm track here and there to make it worthwhile.

I would place a bet that some in this sub forum see more unwanted heavy to possibly excessive rainfall over the next 2 weeks. Next 2 weeks look to feature above normal rainfall region wide.

While not calling for a September hurricane shutout at this point the lack of a hurricane for the 2026 season could easily go on for another week. Pretty amazing honestly. We almost made it with Edouard. A track a little further offshore before landfall would have easily done it. It was very close but no cigar.

Keep an eye on next week. Wouldn't be surprised to see more locally heavy rainfall totals before the week is over.

Lowest min from NJWXNET was 40. Very refreshing. Overnight low here was 45.

Yep and NWNJ cool spots are in the 50-53 degree range currently.