MANDA

Thanks very much. Going to be past 11/21 this year I believe. Looks like latest first 32 or lower was December 22, 1998. Doubt it takes that long but i wouldn't rule it out completely depending on how things evolve late November into early December. Per NWS: Climo normal first 32 or lower is right around 15th of November.

Don- Any chance you have a list of years and the first 32 or lower reading in the park? Would be interesting to see. Any trends on if it is getting later in the season over the last several decades? Thanks in advance if you have it.

This post from 10/23 is aging well. Per Don post above and looking at LR guidance not seeing much if any chance of CP getting to 32 or below before 3rd week of November and at this point the odds inching up for December,

October rainfall: 2.39". Take out the Isaias related event and would have been only .55". Today is day #14 with no rainfall. The last two weeks have made for a great fall foliage season out this way. Peak color and with no rain and minimal wind the leaves have stayed on the trees. Good amount of leaves were flying late yesterday once the front moved through and the winds kicked up. Still a beautiful view out in the yard with lots of gold and red colored leaves in the morning sun. Two maples across the street are deep orange. Some trees are now almost bare but still lots of color. I give foliage an "A" this year out this way.

Just saw that. Gotta watch the trends on the EURO/AI/EPS more than anything. GFS lowest skill scores of almost any model and just read a piece from NOAA that the October 2026 upgrade from V16 to V17 has been pushed off a year to next October. I hardly use the GFS for anything anymore. I just find it useless, IMO. We'll see how this evolves over the next 5 days or so. Interesting to say the least. Fact that CMC still has wet solution makes me lean in that direction at the moment....pending 12Z EURO/AI/EPS data. Anything is better than the snooze fest that is ongoing now.

Surprised no chatter on here about the chances for a soaking rain later next week. About 6 days out but has been varying model support for a few days now. Details to be determined but decent chances our prolonged dry and pleasant weather will be coming to an end before next week is over. Would bring an end to the 2026 foliage season for the N&W crew as well. Opening bid from WPC has 1.5-2.5" subform wide.

Still nothing going on around here so anyone have memories of this one: Power outages in my area of NNJ were brutal. Lasted about a week in most spots and it was COLD. https://x.com/Danbury_WX/status/2115785053150089670

With not much else going on I thought this was worthy of sharing. Thought this was a great video clip. https://x.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/2114179629863084042/video/1 Enjoy the weather cause you ain't gonna notice much change for a while. Nice but getting boring. Per post above from @bluewave don't like the look of this. Keep an eye on it over the coming weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern locked in for a while. Trof west / ridge east.

34 was the low here this morning on top of the hill. Walpack bottomed out at 22. High Point got down to 32. Low lying / valley locations the clear winners this morning on overnight mins. Perfect conditions for radiational cooling overnight. Quiet weather continues for the coming week with still no rainfall for the next 7 days at least.

72% of total from those two storms.

This could be about it for the season. Two storms make up almost 60% of a sad seasonal ACE number.

Foliage at peak up this way. Looks real nice especially at sunrise / sunset when the sun hits the trees at lower angle. Was up at High Point yesterday and past peak there. Clocks go back next Sunday. About two months to go until shortest daylight of the year. Marching towards Winter but keep your expectations in check and you won't be disappointed. Always room for a surprise so hang your hat on that for now. Next seasonal benchmark is when does CP hit freezing or below? Looks like 3rd. week of November at the absolute earliest. Not seeing anything to make me believe it will be sooner than that. Better than 50/50 chance not until December IMO based on the pattern and LR guidance. In the meantime enjoy this weather. It doesn't get better than this as far as perfect Fall weather.

Was a nasty 2-3 day stretch for the area. We had ours the day prior. Same, no hail but winds were something else. No power for just shy of 4 days. Thankful for the Generac!

Record hailstone in Connecticut from back in July during the 7/4 severe outbreak. https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2110020388004462779/photo/1

Not sure who would pay any attention to this type of thing no matter who issued it. At best it is clickbait and at worst it is a steaming pile of ....

Solid soaking areawide. 1.88" here.

000 WTNT64 KNHC 100057 TCUAT4 Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 800 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...WATER LEVELS RISING RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND... ...800 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge in Panama City Beach, Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.4 feet above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. A wind gust to 102 mph (164 km/h) with a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at Pensacola City Hall. SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 86.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

Not minimizing this in any way but presentation on IR and radar is degrading as it comes in. Not going to make much difference though. At least it is not intensifying right up until landfall. Jet interaction, trof and vorticity interaction will maximize wind and maximize it well inland as well. There is little weather once that northern eye wall plows ashore, which it is doing right now. Not much on the other side of degrading eye. Looks like a two hour window of the worst of it for a given location along the coast. Official landfall should take place around 10pm +/- 30 minutes.

Gonna be rough for the next 90 min or so. Good luck. Hope all goes well for you.

Assuming it does not degrade that northern eye wall will mean business when it reaches the coast in the next 2 hours or so. Actual landfall should occur between 10 and 11 pm.

Not that it is going to make a huge difference but you can clearly see the western edges of the circulation starting to "flatten" as shear is now starting to take hold.

This could be indicative of what is to come in the right quadrent as this comes inland later on and into the overnight. Tornado threat and inland wind damage to trees and power lines likely to be extensive well into Alabama and western GA.

Agree! Stellar day out this way. Near perfect. Only some high clouds keeping it from a top 10.

Doing a darn good job of fighting off the dry air trying to get ingested from the west. Robust convection most of the western half of the circulation. More new convection popping NW on the center. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60w.html https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO2/loop60i.html Northern eye wall looking solid. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=EVX-N0Q-1-48-100-usa-rad