MANDA

Canadian skill scores are notably higher than the GFS. I’d keep the Canadian option on the table for the moment. Let’s see what the UKIE AND EURO have to add shortly. GFS skill scores are at the bottom of the pack.

Modeling through 06Z and ICON at 12Z so far have been pretty steady with QPF of between .7" and 1.1". Be happy. Be ecstatic with that right now. Be happy. Be ecstatic with 10:1 - 12:1 ratios. Consider anything above 12:1 as gravy *IF* it happens. To assume at this point 15:1 or 20:1 is just foolish.

Got down to 6 here on top of the hill, my location is the highest point in the area. Other readings at lower elevations around me were in the +1 to +2 range. Saw a +5 and +7 but not sure of their elevation. NJ coldest mins:

Sorry I missed that! Was living in Chatham, NJ at the time and don't remember exact numbers from that cold and icy winter but I do remember it was COLD!

Yeah, I wish there was more data. If the -34 was correct I would have to agree the NW NJ ice box spots might have been -40. I have always thought the -34 was too low though. Would like to know more about it. Good luck getting your weather station up. Shoot for Thursday....warmest day we'll see for a while.

Current temperatures at or below 10 across NJ. Only made it to 19 here today under bright sun. Currently 8. Cold by all accounts I'd say.

A note about the EURO. It has been trying to pop a surface low south of L.I. on the last few runs at some point Monday. That is what keeps the precipitation going thus adding to the QPF forecast totals. That is kind of a wildcard in my opinion. If it happens, where it happens and how strong it gets. Something to watch on future runs.

It is trying real hard for something special.

Gotta like that look. Just need to keep it or improve on it. If we can keep these 18Z trends going at 00Z and then 12Z tomorrow that would be great....at least on the EURO, GGEM and UKMET. If the GFS comes to the party and stays so much the better.

Only difference is that was a coastal bomb with very intense deformation banding for hours mid and late storm. This upcoming event is not really a synoptic comparison. At least not at this time. Get the full energy out of the SW and a complete, clean phase then all bets might be off. No matter what, we have a legit threat of something late weekend into early next week and for me half the fun and excitement is in the tracking.

WPC is not known to making large jumps with this product which is issued twice a day. Over the last several issuance's the 1/2" area has been gradually shifted north to a TTN to NYC line. I believe they rely heavily on NBM but not sure.

15:1 possible assuming soundings are favorable. Me personally I'd stick with 12:1 for now when calculating snowfall off the current QPF forecasts. Not to mention in a long duration storm the ratios can change from high to low or vice versa during the storm duration. Deformation death bands can produce great ratios. So maybe a storm that has 10:1 to 20:1 throughout the storm duration averages out to 15:1 when all is said and done. Just to early make ratio forecasts. Way to premature to even stay 15:1 IMO.

No way in hell at this point to determine where best snow growth will be, banding and lift etc. We're still trying to figure out the synoptic situation much less pull apart soundings 120 hours out. Surface temperatures alone do not determine ratios. A gusty wind can reduce ratios. Not to mention how much against climo 20:1 would be for the metro. JB is a great one for pushing 20:1 / 30:1 ratios and I can't think of ONCE when he was right on that during a moderate or major storm.

I believe you but that is an absurd statement for them to make.

Yep, about 20 model cycles to go. I would start to look for some sort of consistency and trends starting with the 12Z runs tomorrow to get an idea of where we stand. At that point (12Z tomorrow) we'll be within about 96 hours of the event. The better models (CMC/EURO/EURO AI) should start to have a better handle on things. Expect the GFS to flop around for who knows how long. I give no credence to that model no matter what it shows. It is bottom of the barrel. We might even want to start the baseline at 00Z tonight and see how things move from there.

No, did not move up to this area until 2016. I have often wondered what the NJ coldest minimum temperature on record really is. I believe it is recorded as -34 in River Vale (Bergen County) back in 1904. Have to believe it would have been colder than that in the Sussex County valley locations. Also how accurate is the -34 reading? Who and exactly where was it recorded? Lived in Park Ridge, next to River Vale for 10 years from mid 70's to mid 80's. Saw some cold readings during that time but temperatures on the coldest mornings were always notably colder out in NW NJ.

Half those amounts in north Ga. would be catastrophic. Too far out to zero in on ice accretion anywhere with this. Ice storms hard to nail down even within 6-12 hours. All depends on temperatures through the column. Surface temps especially during the daytime need to be 28 or lower (personal experience) and heavy rain is hard to accrete. Forecast ice storms can become sleet storms if column temperature profile is not perfect. Even 1/2" of ice can cause BIG problems, 1" in rural areas can be an absolute nightmare.

Low of 9 here. Some of the coldest NJ mins. It reached -1 far NW Sussex County. Lots of blowing snow around here yesterday afternoon into the overnight.

21.1" here for the season.

It has past "warming up" it is flaming. Those 360 hour snowfall maps are making the rounds fast.

That January mean temperature is sinking faster than cement shoes in the Hudson.

Well, that tells you what they are thinking. Of course subject to change if necessary but for now they are thinking max totals south of this forum. They door leave the door open for some northward adjustments. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Can you imagine being stuck in that in this kind of cold? Gotta be 6+ hours until they get traffic moving again I would think?

While we wait for the biblical snows this is worth a watch: ouch. Wouldn't want to be stuck in that mess in that kind of cold. Can't imagine how long it will take to get traffic moving again. Gotta believe 6+ hours?? https://x.com/i/status/2013289835960611318

How much snow will it take this coming weekend to make you happy? 1-3" 2-4" 3-6" 4-8" 6-10" 8-14" 14"+ For me I'd be thrilled with 6-10", anything less would be a disappointment. I'm prepared to be disappointed and my expectations are low. Just my early thoughts. Lots of time to watch and track though. Watch the trends especially in the AI guidance as we go through the next few days.