MANDA

Agree but they might slip it under the radar with a Sub-Tropical system designation post season.

Not that I disagree with anything from his X post but I highly doubt they give this a name at this point. They may classify it in post season analysis. They might have given it a name at this point in time IF they had had made mention of it in the TWO over the last few days. My opinion: At least in post season analysis should be labeled as a Sub-Tropical cyclone. Just my 2 cents. If I lived along the coast, especially the NJ coast I'd fasten my seatbelts. Could be a bumpy night. Long Island will be no picnic either but water could get a big push toward the Jersey coast overnight.

Highest wind gust I've seen so far along the Jersey coast is Harvey Cedars at 69 mph per NJWXNET. So far at least in my opinion things going as expected. Rainfall totals have always been the biggest wildcard with this event and at least so far they have been on the lower end of expectations I would say. Winds and coastal flooding about as expected so far but more to come. So far gusts to about 35 mph here, maybe a tad higher overnight. Rainfall so far .33". Twigs and small branches scattered across the yard. If you took away the map underlay what would you think? https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_OV/loop60v.html

Latest 2026 Atlantic basin stats: Still not at 10 ACE points. Currently sitting at 8.9 and not going to reach 10 by end of the month. Still no hurricanes. While certainly not a given one has to start wondering if we can get though the season without a hurricane. It should at least be on the bingo card. I'd give it 50/50 odds.

True this. Coming in along CNJ coast or a little south will maximize the tides, wind and rainfall totals over most of this sub forum. If it slides westward say along the south shore of the island than somewhat lesser impacts. Watch trends next 12-18 hours for better clarity. This depiction with that pressure would be worst case scenario from CNJ coast up into NYC, LI and the sound.

I'd also keep an eye on western L.I. Sound. Depending on exact wind trajectories water could be piling into the west end of the sound. Been concerned about that for several days. As of now forecasts are for mid range moderate but room for higher if the winds can go more ENE for a time. Just something to watch.

NJ leadership has other issues going on. This is a case where they might actually need one, so we'll see when or if it comes. I think more when than if.

This event is moving towards being very impactful over this subform. Been trying to keep my thoughts in check the last day or so not wanting to hype but this system has been throttling up the last 24-36 hours towards upper ranges of potential in all aspects. Coastal flooding and erosion, rainfall totals and wind potential have all ramped up with each model cycle. Have been worried all along about major coastal flooding and that now seems likely at some locations. Winds have become a bigger factor as well especially over the more inland areas. Power outages could be widespread with wet ground and winds gusting to 50 mph+ along the coast and up to 40 mph more inland. Excessive rainfall totals now very possible over parts of the area. Some areas will not be able to take that much rain on top of what has fallen recently. Especially southern tier of CT and into NE NJ. Will be interesting to watch this unfold. Batten down the hatches if you are a coastal dweller.

Nice convective blowup vicinity of developing low pressure as the sun starts to set over the Atlantic east of NC. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html

WPC take on precipitation for 72 hour period 8pm this evening until 8pm Sunday. As good as anything right now. Eventual path of surface low will determine final outcome. I kind of like the western extent but thinking maybe totals on the high side? Thinking along the lines of .5" to 1" here. Room for more though. For Suffolk County on ENE into southeast New England including coast of central and eastern CT 2 to maybe 4".

Latest visible loop shows the system taking shape east of North Carolina. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html

Beaches from NC/VA taking on water this morning. https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/2103104692251464073/video/1 https://x.com/LiveCamChaser/status/2103108589720408552/video/1 https://x.com/LiveCamChaser/status/2103093525869170733/video/1 https://x.com/RobertRayWx/status/2102878650089582869/video/1

Only good thing with this scenario as shown is it keeps the wind trajectory more NNE to N and that would keep water from piling onto the coast. Still questions on how this all eventually plays out. Complex evolution for sure.

Looks like Fay will be the biggest ACE producer season to date knocking Bertha to second place. Same also true for named storm days. We continue to nickel and dime our way to 10 ACE points. Currently sitting at 6.7.

Winds along the NJ beaches currently gusting between 30 and 40 mph. Winds have been onshore for a few days and water has been piling up. With model trends over the last 12-24 hours I'd say the threat of major coastal impacts has ticked up. Minor to moderate coastal flooding / beach erosion seems like a given at this point. Wind gusts could reach 50 mph before all is said and done along NJ coast and Long Island. Eastern LI maybe higher. Jersey shore and LI Sound favored for most significant coastal impacts. Depending on wind trajectories this is one of those events where water could pile westward across LI Sound. Rainfall totals still an enigma as to what areas get the highest totals and how much that might be.

Decidedly October feel out there this morning. Overnight low of 44 with a gusty NE wind. Seems Summer has fallen off the cliff.

So surprised this is not even getting mentioned in the TWO. Wonder what the internal reasoning is?

Looks like a beautiful, quiet and peaceful place you got there ! Much wildlife come roaming through?

This has always been the biggest concern / threat with this. Does it stay minor / moderate or go somewhat higher? That is where the track (closer in or further out) comes into play. Rainfall from the Nassau / Suffolk westward was always secondary and never looked like anything heavy. Full moon aids the coastal flooding threat. Jersey coast and LI Sound remain most at risk for coastal flooding. Still going with a closer in more EURO type solution so some places could approach major flooding with long duration onshore flow. Winds along the coast gusting to 40 mph Jersey coast and 50 mph Eastern Long Island. Good gradient with high to the north.

Absolutely perfect sleeping weather. Feels like October! Overnight low here of 48.

At a minimum this upcoming storm was always going to be about a coastal flood threat and strong onshore flow with possible gales. Trends continue to support this. Coastal warnings and advisories are already posted and will likely be extended past the current expiration times. Strong onshore flow for several days / numerous high tide cycles along with a full moon. Still looks to me like the Jersey shore and L.I. Sound get the worst of the coastal flooding / erosion as far as this sub forum are concerned. Eventual surface evolution will determine if this goes past minor / to moderate coastal flooding. Surface evolution will also determine how far inland rain and gusty winds get if they make it inland at all. Complex evolution yet to be determined. If EURO persists with 00Z cycle tonight and is doing something similar at 12Z tomorrow then threat for more effects further inland would increase. Too soon to tell. Something interesting to watch this over the next few days.

GFS flip flops on every single run. It is useless at this time frame IMO. Hopefully by 12Z Thursday or 00Z Friday it has a clue. EURO and EURO AI has been more consistent. Complex evolution that involves a capture so options on final outcome are many at this point. I'm favoring a closer in solution based off superior Euro modeling.

Best bet with this is to watch trends on EURO/EPS/AI. GFS not going to handle this with any kind of consistency for a few more days yet. Going to be a very complex evolution and exactly how it plays out will determine who gets what. I do feel confident in minor to moderate coastal flooding with large onshore fetch over 3-4 high tide cycles with full moon aiding. Still think best chances are along NJ coast, LI Sound and SE New England. All depending on ultimate evolution though. Interesting to watch in the days ahead.

It was 88 years ago yesterday. Can't even imagine if something similar today. Rapid forward speed was unprecedented and aided in keeping intensity up, piling up surge and making the eastern semi-circle truly violent well inland into New England. L.I. landfall pressure was on par with Sandy in NJ. Other big hurricanes followed 1938 affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (1944, Hazel, Donna, Carol, Bob) but 1938 was in a class by itself. As far as population impacts and damage (wind and surge) I'd have to say Sandy comes in second.

Thank you! Totally agree!