MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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This ongoing and still strengthening El-Nino has allowed the 2026 tropical season (Pacific and Atlantic) to follow the Nino playbook to the letter and then some. If the coming Fall and Winter follow the Nino playbook as well as the tropical season has it is going to be a rough season for many in this sub forum. I'm taking an expect the worst and hope for the best approach. I think above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures (DJF) are pretty much a lock. We need to hope for a wet system to time itself with whatever cold air we can muster. Maybe we get a "big one" that way? Might be a big ask though. Maybe a more Modoki El-Nino can better save the day but think that is also a big ask. We'll see how we progress through Fall and go from there but keep expectations low. I suspect most sensible winter weather lovers are bracing for the reality that this Winter might suck.
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Yeah, not so sure one is needed for this upcoming event. Seems a bit over zealous. Then again we've had a lot of local over performers this season.
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Horrible. So sorry.
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Especially for those who lived through it. Future generations will probably remember it like Pearl Harbor or Kennedy assassination I suppose. For those that lived through it and actually witnessed it in real time it will always be there. For me it is as vivid today as it was 25 years ago. Absolute horror. I have not been able to watch any of the video from that day since the evening of 9/12/01. That was the last time I viewed it. Just can't do it. To think what the people on those planes went through not to mention the people in the buildings.
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So much changed from that day forward.
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Looking at this satellite pic would you ever think we were at the peak of hurricane season? Still think we need to be somewhat wary of the Gulf and southwest Atlantic before the season ends. If anything noteworthy is going to happen it will come from the CAG with a move north into the Gulf or southwest Atlantic. Could also have some home grown system in either of those places. MDR is done for this year. We'll have to see how many more days we can go without a hurricane because as of today we broke the record for latest in the season without one. Should easily be able to tack on another 7 days I think which is pretty amazing.
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My mistake. You are correct I didn't remember the front. I thought it was mostly the subsidence around Erin that gave us the clear skies. I had forgotten how dry and crisp the airmass was that day. If it was just subsidence it would have been more humid and warmer. Cold front clearly the reason for the sunny, deep blue skies. I do remember in the weeks following 9/11 it was so very dry with minimal rain to cleanse the dust and toxins out of the air and quell the smoke from ground zero.
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Hurricane Erin off the east coast on this day in 2001. The subsidence around it gave the area deep blue and cloudless skies. The rest is sadly history. Perhaps if it were closer in and we were socked in with clouds and rain things would have been different in some way. They were determined so maybe not. Sad day.
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Down to 53 here last night. Was great to sleep with the windows open and the blankets up.
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Took a little longer, until early afternoon for the drier air to reach my part of NJ but the mid and late afternoon turned out really pleasant with lots of sun, a breeze, lowering dews and temperatures right around 80.
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Just in case you were wondering what the status of the 2026 hurricane season is: That is one quiet looking signal from Google Deep Mind going into mid month. If we make it to September 11 with no hurricanes (seems likely) we will break the record for latest in the season with no hurricanes in the satellite era.
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Just in case you were wondering about what the latest Drought Monitor looked like: I think we're all GOOD !
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Picked up .60" here overnight. Total for the month already at 1.55". Looks like a drier pattern for the next 5-7 days. Thankfully.
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What a hot mess that site is. You have to wonder if the precipitation readings are also affected as well as the temperatures. Can't tell what the tree canopy looks like but quite possible it could be affecting the rain gauge. Doubt that tree removal makes anything more than a minimal difference in temperature readings. That little plot of land must have its own micro climate going on. Thanks for the picture.
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Yeah and it looks like several chances of local drenchers coming up this week with CNJ/NNJ favored. What else is new?
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Looks like we finish August with .9 ACE points and a feeble 3.6 is the 2026 total to date. We'll see that September can deliver. Looks quiet for the next 5-7 days as least.
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Really nice out! Refreshing! Overnight low here of 55. Got down to 45 in Walpack and 47 in Sandyston in NW Sussex County.
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The big IF though is if a cohesive LLC remains and goes north of the islands. I think the odds are low but not zero.
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Looks like we are on track to end August with <2 ACE points. Currently sitting at .9 points.
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Picked up .50" rainfall from event that just wrapped up. So glad we avoided anything heavy in my immediate area. Soils are wet and with the declining sun angle they are taking longer to dry out. August rainfall: 8.34". Rainfall Y.T.D.: 41.15". We'll see if wet pattern holds into and through the Fall. Might be headed for a 50" rainfall year. At this point I'm willing to bet on the over.
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Are people still working on a way to try and dim the sun? If I think of any other ways we can "cool" the planet I'll post them.
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Total here for August: 8.12" including .28" that fell earlier this morning.
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Picked up .28" here in two rounds of fast moving T-Showers. Lots of thunder. Wow, school starting early. I can never remember going back until Tuesday or Wednesday after Labor Day. Driving around yesterday I saw some trees starting to show some color, not brown but reddish orange in spots. Fall is coming.
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Agreed. If it can hold the convection overnight and still looks like this on first visible pictures we should have a least a TD by tomorrow 5am....maybe even a TS if we get a good ASCAT pass over the next 6-10 hours. Winds were marginal TS earlier but circulation was not completely closed off, no west wind. This satellite pic looks healthy. Thinking along the lines of TD or TS next 2-3 days then weakening beyond that and perhaps if it can hold together enough some regeneration north of the islands or east of the Bahamas down the road. Most guidance has shifted south and west last few days indicative of a weaker system I believe.
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Can't beat this weather with a stick. Sunny and 57 this morning. Just can't ask for more to close out August.
