MANDA

If these trends hold absolutely. Going to be some insane banding as this matures.

So sorry. Truly.

I think the winds will break up the dendrites and slightly temper accumulations but I don't think this is going to be a wet paste type of snow that clings to everything such that it will bring down trees and power lines. Not going to be champagne powder either.

Yes. Especially in heavier bands.

By Saturday morning after 12Z cycle everyone was going ape shit. Remember it well.

Have to agree. Start there and see how things look after 6Z and 12Z tomorrow. Can always go up....lose credibility if you have to drop too much.

I'd have to say not far off the mark with 2/78. Same general evolution.

Can you imagine if we hadn't missed 2/1 and then this was coming. Would have been a trifecta!

Jeez! Just drool worthy.

Normally a great track for where I am living now but back then (I was not living here at the time) this area got the royal shaft with 5-8". Deformation bands were SO intense there was massive subsidence to the west of them.

Same here but then again everything today has surpassed my expectations.

For my area of NW NJ I like an eventual track to near Block Island to across the Cape Cod Canal.

There has been officially 30"+ in NJ. Boxing Day storm was one and so was January 1996. I think probably the most recent was January 2016. Had 31" in southeast Morris County.

Great Met. Conservative and level headed - no hype. Good guy all around. Know him from his days at WOR radio.

Normally I'd like to see the 850 low a little further west to nail interior NJ. The fact this is bombing as it goes by will help offset that somewhat eastward displacement. 850 low as shown is text book material for NJ coast, up across NE NJ, NYC and LI.

Said this earlier. Going to be better than 10:1 ratios at times during this storm. Assuming things progress as currently indicated. You can get some high ratio snows in these deformation bands. Has much more to do with temps in the column and not just surface temperatures which at the peak of the storm should be in the mid to upper 20's. Again, assuming everything stays on track as indicated.

Just not sure what more you could ask for with that depiction.

Man oh man. Each run trends more favorable than the last.

Yes and anyone to the west of the banding will be less than satisfied with all the sinking going on.

A close in NAM-MING right there.

Anyone if they have time can you post the progression of the 850 and 700 mb. maps. Just would like a visual of the mid level low tracks. Waiting to meet a friend and takes too long on my phone. Thanks in advance....if at all possible.

I was not living here for that storm, was in far s.e. Morris County and I ended up with 16". Meanwhile a 15-20 min drive to my east that had 25-30".

For my own greedy purposes I'd like to see the sfc end up to the south of KBID / KMVY by about 50 miles. Most favorable for inland spots of NNJ.

I like that look to get heavier snows further N and W into NNJ.

Notable shift northward with increasing amounts as would be expected given model trends last 12-18 hours. This map would cover the entire event for this sub forum. In my mind the biggest question now is where does the western and northern edge of the precipitation shield really drop off rapidly. Are we done trending or do we trend north and west a little more? I think most in this sub forum will be disappointed with less than 6" at this point, so where does that happen??? How far N and W do you have to be to miss out on the big stuff? Also, don't underestimate the dynamical lift this is going to be involved here, especially in banding. Ratios could exceed 10:1 in spots at times during the storm.