MANDA

No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter. Almost seems like a given at this point. Storminess will abound. Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air. Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line. I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.

Nice graphic. Hard to envision a hurricane coming out of this but a wet TS affecting portions of the Gulf coast seems a like a reasonable expectation at this time.

Just amazing photos as always!

Beautiful morning with nice breeze, blue skies and cool temperatures. Overnight low of 51. Leaf color change becoming rapidly noticeable up this way. Pumpkin spice everything is everywhere. The pick your own apple orchards are hurting with many closed due to the Spring freeze.

Interesting link. Thanks. Will be interesting to see where this season ends up. I would take the over on 17.4 but hard pressed at the moment to see where that comes from. Still time to add ACE. Clock is ticking on getting a hurricane though.

I know 1914 has lowest ACE on record. I consider anything not in the satellite era questionable. In the satellite era what season has lowest ACE?

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

Crazy storm in a crazy season. The rebirth of Fay and the birth of not so horrible Hanna will get us to just over 10 ACE points season to date as we close September. Still waiting on the first hurricane of the season. We've blown past that record.

Record high tide ranking.

Next 7 days per WPC. About as wet a forecast as you will see over such a large area.

41 years ago today: https://x.com/NycStormChaser/status/2104365901864919338/video/1 From what I can remember the power outages across L.I. were extreme and long lasting. Back in the LICO days.

Certainly going with quantity and not quality this season.

Three day event totals: Some 7-8" totals scattered around in there. Click maps to enlarge

Mist and drizzle ended here about an hour ago. Three day event total: 1.55". Happy to have missed out on the bigger totals as well! M.T.D.: 5.46". Y.T.D.: 46.63". Making a run at 50"+ year.

Lots of discussion over the last few days about how this storm should be classified. No shortage of opinions from several respected Mets. These two X posts make the most sense to me. It was shallow warm core and it did separate from fronts for a short time. No matter what it was not your typical cold season Nor-Easter and was not purely tropical. Hybrid or Sub-Tropical designation seems best way to go IMO.

Pretty cool radar evolution of this event from about 8pm last evening through current hour. Not your classic Nor-Easter look. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Event total rainfall here so far .99". Very windy overnight. Estimating gusts to 40 mph. Winds blew hard all night. Lots of leaves, twigs and small branches down in the yard. Numerous power outages in my immediate area. JCPL reporting close to 46,000 customers out across their service areas in NJ. Southeast New England and coastal Jersey have received the heaviest total rainfall. Forecasts for a high impact coastal storm worked out well.

Great cause. Good luck!

Chewed up pretty good!

Based on latest radar mosaic you can see where best rains are setting up. Best lift / forcing is over southeast New England. As the low starts to bend back west the heavier rains should start to cover L.I. and at least southern CT. Surface low has made it pretty far north. It is already abeam of Atlantic City and still gaining latitude. Have to think this is going to take the center more towards the NY Bight rather than the CNJ coast. If true that would mean the next round of high tides tonight and early tomorrow would be worse on L.I. rather than NJ. Winds are going to pickup overnight area wide through so I'd plan for increasing power outages especially nearer the coast. Heaviest rains going forward look to be from the city eastward and north into southern and southeast New England. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_PA2/loop60v.html

Yes, the twin forks of L.I. would be the exception. A more north wind won't do anything to help out on the east end.

If there is a saving grace here so far today it is that winds have been more northerly across the area than anything else. That has kept for the most part water from piling in along the coast (especially NJ) any further than it has already. That may change some overnight as the storm turns left overnight and winds become more onshore.