MANDA

Latest visible loop shows the system taking shape east of North Carolina. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html

Beaches from NC/VA taking on water this morning. https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/2103104692251464073/video/1 https://x.com/LiveCamChaser/status/2103108589720408552/video/1 https://x.com/LiveCamChaser/status/2103093525869170733/video/1 https://x.com/RobertRayWx/status/2102878650089582869/video/1

Only good thing with this scenario as shown is it keeps the wind trajectory more NNE to N and that would keep water from piling onto the coast. Still questions on how this all eventually plays out. Complex evolution for sure.

Looks like Fay will be the biggest ACE producer this year behind Bertha. Will also have the most Named Storm Days behind Bertha. We continue to nickel and dime our way to 10 ACE points. Currently sitting at 6.7.

Winds along the NJ beaches currently gusting between 30 and 40 mph. Winds have been onshore for a few days and water has been piling up. With model trends over the last 12-24 hours I'd say the threat of major coastal impacts has ticked up. Minor to moderate coastal flooding / beach erosion seems like a given at this point. Wind gusts could reach 50 mph before all is said and done along NJ coast and Long Island. Eastern LI maybe higher. Jersey shore and LI Sound favored for most significant coastal impacts. Depending on wind trajectories this is one of those events where water could pile westward across LI Sound. Rainfall totals still an enigma as to what areas get the highest totals and how much that might be.

Decidedly October feel out there this morning. Overnight low of 44 with a gusty NE wind. Seems Summer has fallen off the cliff.

So surprised this is not even getting mentioned in the TWO. Wonder what the internal reasoning is?

Looks like a beautiful, quiet and peaceful place you got there ! Much wildlife come roaming through?

This has always been the biggest concern / threat with this. Does it stay minor / moderate or go somewhat higher? That is where the track (closer in or further out) comes into play. Rainfall from the Nassau / Suffolk westward was always secondary and never looked like anything heavy. Full moon aids the coastal flooding threat. Jersey coast and LI Sound remain most at risk for coastal flooding. Still going with a closer in more EURO type solution so some places could approach major flooding with long duration onshore flow. Winds along the coast gusting to 40 mph Jersey coast and 50 mph Eastern Long Island. Good gradient with high to the north.

Absolutely perfect sleeping weather. Feels like October! Overnight low here of 48.

At a minimum this upcoming storm was always going to be about a coastal flood threat and strong onshore flow with possible gales. Trends continue to support this. Coastal warnings and advisories are already posted and will likely be extended past the current expiration times. Strong onshore flow for several days / numerous high tide cycles along with a full moon. Still looks to me like the Jersey shore and L.I. Sound get the worst of the coastal flooding / erosion as far as this sub forum are concerned. Eventual surface evolution will determine if this goes past minor / to moderate coastal flooding. Surface evolution will also determine how far inland rain and gusty winds get if they make it inland at all. Complex evolution yet to be determined. If EURO persists with 00Z cycle tonight and is doing something similar at 12Z tomorrow then threat for more effects further inland would increase. Too soon to tell. Something interesting to watch this over the next few days.

GFS flip flops on every single run. It is useless at this time frame IMO. Hopefully by 12Z Thursday or 00Z Friday it has a clue. EURO and EURO AI has been more consistent. Complex evolution that involves a capture so options on final outcome are many at this point. I'm favoring a closer in solution based off superior Euro modeling.

Best bet with this is to watch trends on EURO/EPS/AI. GFS not going to handle this with any kind of consistency for a few more days yet. Going to be a very complex evolution and exactly how it plays out will determine who gets what. I do feel confident in minor to moderate coastal flooding with large onshore fetch over 3-4 high tide cycles with full moon aiding. Still think best chances are along NJ coast, LI Sound and SE New England. All depending on ultimate evolution though. Interesting to watch in the days ahead.

It was 88 years ago yesterday. Can't even imagine if something similar today. Rapid forward speed was unprecedented and aided in keeping intensity up, piling up surge and making the eastern semi-circle truly violent well inland into New England. L.I. landfall pressure was on par with Sandy in NJ. Other big hurricanes followed 1938 affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (1944, Hazel, Donna, Carol, Bob) but 1938 was in a class by itself. As far as population impacts and damage (wind and surge) I'd have to say Sandy comes in second.

Thank you! Totally agree!

2026 Atlantic Season to date: Pretty feeble. Nothing much is likely to change before the end of the month. We'll tack on another tenth or two of ACE before Fay gives up the ghost. The lack of a hurricane this season looks like a lock to continue for balance of September. Will be up to October / November to produce a hurricane.

Does it animate? The "my radar" app that comes with iPhones has been on CarPlay for a while but it will not animate for safety reasons. Let me know if Radarscope does. I'm thinking not?

Rainfall event total here last two days: .44". Humidity dropped off after midnight and this morning was breezy and coolish.

With Fay falling just short we're back on track to keep the record going for latest developing hurricane. Certainly within the realm of possibility now that we make it through September with no hurricanes for the season to date.

Walt! So good to hear from you. We miss you over on the NYC Metro forum. Hope all well with you. My opinion. Minor to moderate coastal flooding especially LI Sound and Jersey beaches and SNE coast. Any winds of note confined to more eastern sections NJ coast out to eastern LI and SNE especially. Same with rainfall more coastal than inland. This is based on the modeling now. Any ticks west this week and interior sections could be more affected by winds and rain. Something interesting to watch.

Yes. Gonna be close. Window has begun to close. If I was to wager I would say Fay does not make it to Hurricane status. Unless there is a Special Update (doubtful) between now and 5am I don’t think it makes it. I highly doubt it would be upgraded at 5am. We’ll see soon enough.

Agreed. This is very close. Amazing we've had to wait until 9/21 and then have it happen out of the deep tropics at 34N and 33W. Pretty fitting for this season. Regardless the hurricane free streak should break with Fay.

I think at a minimum minor to moderate coastal flooding will be an issue before the coming week is over. Days of easterly fetch and coming full moon combined with developing offshore storm / upper level cut off likely to cause issues.

With a moisture rich atmosphere Sunday onward with high PWATS fully expecting locally heavy downpours such as we have seen over the last few months. Rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour are certainly able to produce Flash Flooding conditions especially with very wet soils ongoing at most locations.

Looks like WPC coming on board for a a potentially very wet stretch coming up. Too soon for details on placement of heaviest of the totals but looks like more Flash Flood Watches for some part of this sub forum are in the cards over the next week. PWATS once again modeled to rise to AOA 2". Chances of locally excessive totals for some over the next 7 days increasing.