MANDA

Looking good with some nice ventilation going on even in the SW quadrent. Has about 24 hours to maximize itself before shear starts to really impinge.

Best looking system by far this season and close to home. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html Don't think this makes major status and thinking Cat 1 at landfall but spreading out as it landfalls. Jet interactions may make this just as bad or worse inland than at the coast. Winds will extend quite a distance inland with massive power outages. Ground is saturated along the gulf coast to boot. Lots of trees will come down. Tornado threat east of the track is going to be a problem as well. Surge will be the biggest issue at the coast I think. Also think NHC will continue to nudge track east a bit in future advisories. Places near landfall and to the right will get the worst of the winds and surge. West side could have not much going on with a lopsided system. In a more favorable atmospheric season with less shear this storm could have been much much worse. On par with some of the notorious systems of the past.

Same here. We kept the heat off but chilly in here. Overnight low 38 here on top of the hill. Valley spots a few degrees lower. Overall a very chilly morning across NJ:

Never paid attention to this before. Have they always used this color scheme? It is a joke.

GFS is a useless model. Not sure why anyone uses it for anything more than 36-48 hours in advance. It flips and flops like a fish out of water from one run to the next. The big snow event in the Northeast last February was one of the very few times the blind squirrel found the nut.

Dipped to 31 in Walpack overnight. Lots of upper 30's around the state in spots that radiate well. Even as far south as Vineland in far south Jersey. Temperatures per NJ WXNET. Overnight low here was 42 on the top of the hill.

Currently 38 in Walpack and 41 in Sandyston per NJ WXNET. Those places in the NW Sussex County valleys radiate like crazy so sub freezing likely there come Wednesday morning and close to freezing in a few spots tomorrow morning.

No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter. Almost seems like a given at this point. Storminess will abound. Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air. Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line. I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.

Nice graphic. Hard to envision a hurricane coming out of this but a wet TS affecting portions of the Gulf coast seems a like a reasonable expectation at this time.

Just amazing photos as always!

Beautiful morning with nice breeze, blue skies and cool temperatures. Overnight low of 51. Leaf color change becoming rapidly noticeable up this way. Pumpkin spice everything is everywhere. The pick your own apple orchards are hurting with many closed due to the Spring freeze.

Interesting link. Thanks. Will be interesting to see where this season ends up. I would take the over on 17.4 but hard pressed at the moment to see where that comes from. Still time to add ACE. Clock is ticking on getting a hurricane though.

I know 1914 has lowest ACE on record. I consider anything not in the satellite era questionable. In the satellite era what season has lowest ACE?

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

Crazy storm in a crazy season. The rebirth of Fay and the birth of not so horrible Hanna will get us to just over 10 ACE points season to date as we close September. Still waiting on the first hurricane of the season. We've blown past that record.

Record high tide ranking.

Next 7 days per WPC. About as wet a forecast as you will see over such a large area.

41 years ago today: https://x.com/NycStormChaser/status/2104365901864919338/video/1 From what I can remember the power outages across L.I. were extreme and long lasting. Back in the LICO days.

Certainly going with quantity and not quality this season.

Three day event totals: Some 7-8" totals scattered around in there. Click maps to enlarge

Mist and drizzle ended here about an hour ago. Three day event total: 1.55". Happy to have missed out on the bigger totals as well! M.T.D.: 5.46". Y.T.D.: 46.63". Making a run at 50"+ year.

Lots of discussion over the last few days about how this storm should be classified. No shortage of opinions from several respected Mets. These two X posts make the most sense to me. It was shallow warm core and it did separate from fronts for a short time. No matter what it was not your typical cold season Nor-Easter and was not purely tropical. Hybrid or Sub-Tropical designation seems best way to go IMO.