MANDA

With Fay falling just short we're back on track to keep the record going for latest developing hurricane. Certainly within the realm of possibility now that we make it through September with no hurricanes for the season to date.

Walt! So good to hear from you. We miss you over on the NYC Metro forum. Hope all well with you. My opinion. Minor to moderate coastal flooding especially LI Sound and Jersey beaches and SNE coast. Any winds of note confined to more eastern sections NJ coast out to eastern LI and SNE especially. Same with rainfall more coastal than inland. This is based on the modeling now. Any ticks west this week and interior sections could be more affected by winds and rain. Something interesting to watch.

Yes. Gonna be close. Window has begun to close. If I was to wager I would say Fay does not make it to Hurricane status. Unless there is a Special Update (doubtful) between now and 5am I don’t think it makes it. I highly doubt it would be upgraded at 5am. We’ll see soon enough.

Agreed. This is very close. Amazing we've had to wait until 9/21 and then have it happen out of the deep tropics at 34N and 33W. Pretty fitting for this season. Regardless the hurricane free streak should break with Fay.

I think at a minimum minor to moderate coastal flooding will be an issue before the coming week is over. Days of easterly fetch and coming full moon combined with developing offshore storm / upper level cut off likely to cause issues.

With a moisture rich atmosphere Sunday onward with high PWATS fully expecting locally heavy downpours such as we have seen over the last few months. Rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour are certainly able to produce Flash Flooding conditions especially with very wet soils ongoing at most locations.

Looks like WPC coming on board for a a potentially very wet stretch coming up. Too soon for details on placement of heaviest of the totals but looks like more Flash Flood Watches for some part of this sub forum are in the cards over the next week. PWATS once again modeled to rise to AOA 2". Chances of locally excessive totals for some over the next 7 days increasing.

Have had slight hints of color here for the last 3 weeks. Much more noticeable over the last week or so.

Not to be taken verbatim obviously but it is dropping hints of a possible wet pattern next 2 weeks. Details, timing and placement of wettest locations TBD.

Lemon. Orange. Lemon. Orange. Lemon. Feel like I'm watching a slot machine in Vegas.

Agree. Hopefully we can time some cold air and a favorable storm track here and there to make it worthwhile.

I would place a bet that some in this sub forum see more unwanted heavy to possibly excessive rainfall over the next 2 weeks. Next 2 weeks look to feature above normal rainfall region wide.

While not calling for a September hurricane shutout at this point the lack of a hurricane for the 2026 season could easily go on for another week. Pretty amazing honestly. We almost made it with Edouard. A track a little further offshore before landfall would have easily done it. It was very close but no cigar.

Keep an eye on next week. Wouldn't be surprised to see more locally heavy rainfall totals before the week is over.

Lowest min from NJWXNET was 40. Very refreshing. Overnight low here was 45.

Yep and NWNJ cool spots are in the 50-53 degree range currently.

First chilly morning of the coming Fall season over the Great Lakes region.

Finished with 1.63" rainfall here. Month: 3.26". Y.T.D.: 44.43", making a run at a 50"+ year. Heaviest rainfall totals from NENJ across Connecticut coast and into R.I. Isolated spots on L.I. got drenched with 3" totals. Nice this morning with a gusty breeze, low dp's and temperatures in the 50's for overnight lows across interior NNJ. Low of 58 here.

Rainfall totals OKX PNS: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off That Montclair total is amazing. The excessive totals were quite localized but excessive nonetheless. No matter what Fall delivers in terms of cool / cold it is nice to see the first Frost Advisories of the season over the upper Mid-West.

Glad we missed out on those totals around here.

Some breaks in the clouds. Rain over. As of 8:00 a.m. had received 1.01". Looks like maybe .30" in the gauge since then, will measure later. Glad the heavy totals stayed east. Doing fine on rain here. Don't need anything excessive.

The modeling that targeted CT/LI nailed the max totals.

You've had your share of "jackpot totals" this Summer.

Seems most areas seeing reasonable totals in the .5-1" range thus far. The excessive totals are more isolated. Hope your grass seed made it. Frustrating to have it wash away. Been there done that. These are amounts as of about 9:00 a.m. with the event still ongoing.

This ongoing and still strengthening El-Nino has allowed the 2026 tropical season (Pacific and Atlantic) to follow the Nino playbook to the letter and then some. If the coming Fall and Winter follow the Nino playbook as well as the tropical season has it is going to be a rough season for many in this sub forum. I'm taking an expect the worst and hope for the best approach. I think above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures (DJF) are pretty much a lock. We need to hope for a wet system to time itself with whatever cold air we can muster. Maybe we get a "big one" that way? Might be a big ask though. Maybe a more Modoki El-Nino can better save the day but think that is also a big ask. We'll see how we progress through Fall and go from there but keep expectations low. I suspect most sensible winter weather lovers are bracing for the reality that this Winter might suck.