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MANDA

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Everything posted by MANDA

  1. MANDA
    Fully expecting 1/2" rainfall here late tonight into Wednesday morning. No matter, a nice October chill is on the way and I for one can't wait. First frost over a large area Thursday night and a freeze for NW cold spots. I hope when I switch the central a/c off tomorrow that is it for the season. Have had it on last several nights and I'm ready to have the windows open again.
  2. MANDA
    Going to be a looooong winter if this pattern keeps up. By looooong I mean frustrating.
  3. MANDA
    Remember those seasons well. Especially 1995 with Felix. He tried hard to get back to the coast but no cigar. All the others from the MDR stayed safely out.
  4. MANDA
    Yes and about 65% of seasonal ACE comes from Erin and Humberto and 85% of seasonal ACE to date comes from 3 storms when you add Gabrielle to the mix. Strange season as you said. Still think we have a shot at a Cat. 3 U.S. hit coming out of the Caribbean in one form or another before the season ends. Florida most at risk of that IMO. A north gulf coast hit from a major seems iffy at best at this point. Most likely anything that approached would have to battle drier air and shear.
  5. MANDA
    Something to keep you cool on an unseasonably warm October day. From Dr. Maue X post. Covers the full upcoming winter season. Buckle up ! I'd bet on the under myself.
  6. MANDA
    Sorry, maybe I should have been more clear. Was referencing MDR stuff with persistent re-curvature. Nothing from MDR has presented with a U.S. landfall threat. Erin was 200 miles away but only the notable large size and intensity made it more impactful than it would have been. Still the fact is all MDR action has re-curved OTS. Chantal was a home brew deal. I was strictly referring to MDR activity in my post.
  7. MANDA
    Pattern of re-curvature has been so persistent this season. Nothing even within striking distance so far. Any U.S. threat for balance of the season will have to come out of the Caribbean. Said this about two months ago and I'm holding to it.
  8. MANDA
    Overnight low here of 45. Perfect. Windows open until just before daybreak. Walpack bottomed out at 31 with lots of l/m 40's over northern and central NJ. The coming warmup will truly suck after these nice crisp few days. At least some rainfall on the horizon in about a week.
  9. MANDA
    Yes, this is what I mean. Keep the dry pattern going through Winter and come Spring we will be significantly below normal. Long ways to go but pattern has been rather persistent. If we get lots of suppression from high pressure to our north as we move through Fall and Winter it will keep the dry pattern going. Very possible.
  10. MANDA
    Keep this pattern going and it will be a different story for the reservoirs come Spring. Not saying pattern will persist but a drier than normal pattern for Winter is not out of the question. And I 100% agree if you have ag or garden / landscaping interests this pattern is not enjoyable.
  11. MANDA
    Seems like over them or just south of them is most likely at this point. Will be interesting to watch and see how this unfolds.
  12. MANDA
    Nice stats Don. Thanks. Last October was brutally dry, remember that well.
  13. MANDA
    Taking a break from all the warm and dry chatter for a moment it sure is nice out there this morning. Great sleeping weather with the windows open and the blankets up. Nice breeze with a bit of a "wind chill" going on. Nice! Overnight low here was 48. Walpack, NJ was lowest I saw with an overnight low of 36, that was a notable exception. Most NNJ cold spots were in the l/m 40's. We now return you to our regularly scheduled program.
  14. MANDA
    Looking forward to the cool down no matter how short lived it will be. Rainfall here for September was better than for most places. Received 3.32" for the month. That was mostly from the 2.15" that fell on 9/5, surprise over performer. Rest of the month was scattered light events. Hopefully October can deliver more widespread moderate to heavier totals but my expectations are low.
  15. MANDA
    Nice visible loop.....on her way to Cat 2. I'd venture to say Imelda reaches Hurricane status by 5pm based on radar and satellite over the past few hours. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop90.html
  16. MANDA
    Nice visible loop. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO2/loop60.html
  17. MANDA
    LOL. AT 11:00 A.M. they mention NOAA AIGEFS in the Humberto discussion. First mention of another AI guidance I've seen.
  18. MANDA
    Agree. I was surprised when I saw AI in their discussions earlier this year. I'd keep it "in house" for a few years to establish some kind of track record. So new and unproven. They mention Google but nothing about any of the other AI guidance available. I find that kind of odd as well.
  19. MANDA
    Essentially a "head on" hit. Strong winds and pushing a lot of water out in front of it.
  20. MANDA
    Three day event totals:
  21. MANDA
    Picked up .27" last 24 hours. Three day event total = .63". Disappointing but at least no runoff and it all soaked in. Overall the dry pattern continues. Some places drier than others but the overall pattern has been dry. Unless there is a surprise it does not look like the tropics will deliver anything over the next week up this way.
  22. MANDA
    .28" here so far. Fog and drizzle currently. Visibility 1/4 to 1/2 mile here on top of the hill.
  23. MANDA
    Some rumbles here as well with a paltry .08".
  24. MANDA
    Had a pity total of .08".
  25. MANDA
    WPC usually on the conservative side so if you are looking / hoping for meaningful rain you gotta like the look of this. As Walt said still a ways off and details not solid but nice starting point.
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