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MANDA

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  1. MANDA
    Peak gusts as of 12:25 p.m. along NJ coast attached: Some beach cam links: https://friendsofibsp.org/live-cams/oba1-beach-cam/ https://exit82.com/beach-cam/ https://njsurfer.com/
  2. MANDA
    Love this !
  3. MANDA
    Received .16" rainfall 8am yesterday to 8am today. Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle began early yesterday afternoon and persisted up until the hours around mid-night. Currently just cloudy. Winds light. Perhaps 10-15 mph at times. This event always was and will be a bigger deal at the coast. Not a joke down there. Going to be moderate to locally major coastal flooding, beach erosion etc. Winds gusting to 60 mph+ ocean front seem likely. My expectations for rainfall up this way have come down. Was thinking along the lines of 1 to 1.5". That seems quite unlikely at this point. Main event is NJ / LI coast with long duration onshore flow, strong winds and coastal flooding / erosion. Wind issues along the coast as well with power outages / tree damage. This will be a big deal for coastal locations. Would not underestimate effects for those locations. Inland west of I-95 don't envision wind gusts much over 30 mph.
  4. MANDA
    I'm still amazed at the job the LFM did with the Blizzard of 78. Had it at 48 (only went out to 48 hours) hours and never let it go or wavered. I have that as second hand information as I was in high school at the time. I do remember speaking with Meteorologist Bill Korbel at the time and he was keeping me in the loop. I was one of his Weather Watchers back in the day. Great guy and great Met. LFM had a shaky reputation to say the least and was notorious for pulling the rug at the last minute.
  5. MANDA
    Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle most of the afternoon since about 1:00 here. Checked the gauge and .02" as of 4:50. Kind of damp, raw and chilly. Currently 57.
  6. MANDA
    Periods of very light rain, mist and drizzle ongoing here for last 90 minutes or so.
  7. MANDA
    That Ocean / Monmouth County area has been targeted for several runs on various models for the heaviest rains. Overall this map does not look out of line and is about what I'm expecting. Maybe boost the totals some for LI? Strong onshore winds always were going to be the main feature of this event along with associated moderate to perhaps major coastal flooding especially NJ coast / bays. Solid beach erosion is going to take place over 3 three high tide cycles. I think inland winds are overdone but would not be shocked to see some gusts to 60 mph+? along the NJ coast. Expecting up to 30 mph up in my neck of the woods.
  8. MANDA
    Repeatedly.
  9. MANDA
    All these phantom States of Emergency are a joke and they are going to dilute the message some day when they are truly needed. Used to be they were reserved for events like a Sandy or very significant snowstorms / blizzards. Now they are issued for next to nothing and certainly nothing you would ask for Federal funds for. Not saying this coming event will be nothing at the immediate coast. Beach locations were going to get the worst of things from this since the get go. It is looking less severe as we get closer to the event and certainly nothing you need a State of Emergency for 48-60 in advance for the entire state no less. Surprised he didn't hold a news conference.
  10. MANDA
    If 00z models are more or less consist with these 12z solutions then we know for almost certain where this is headed. WPC 7 day qpf has shifted precio max to BOS. Still have 1-3” soaking for most of this forum but dubious based on 12z global I would think. These phasing situations are murder.
  11. MANDA
    Low here was 37. Just scattered light front at sunrise. Some NJ coldest mins attached:
  12. MANDA
    5am temp here is 37 on top of the hill. Pequest, Sandyston and Walpack up in NW Sussex 28, 28 and 25 respectively. Mid 30’s down in the Pine Barrens. Ideal radiational cooling with low lying rural locations cashing in on coldest temperatures.
  13. MANDA
    Nothing here that I saw. Currently 40 degrees. Beautiful just past full moon popped above the horizon a short time ago, was out on the deck looking at it. Crystal clear and calm.
  14. MANDA
    WPC has notably beefed up totals further north and more inland with the latest issuance.
  15. MANDA
    In this case the coast of NJ / SLI could get close to those numbers. Don't think my area gusts to 50 mph as depicted though. Big story with this is going to be the coastal impacts. No joke with a solid 3 high tide cycles with strong onshore flow. Esp. NJ and to a lesser extent on the LI Sound. Moderate to major impacts NJ shore and minor to moderate on the sound. Going to be a costly event I think. Many homes ocean front and bays were raised or rebuilt on stilts so that will make it better than it would have been.
  16. MANDA
    Clock is ticking on Hurricane Season 2025 as far as U.S. threats. Biggest show in town will be the coastal low Sunday into early next week for the mid and north Atlantic coast. Lots of cool and dry air will be flowing into the central and eastern U.S. mid to late October. That will sort of put the lid on anything major approaching the Gulf coast. CAG looks to be under performing so far this season. Still time for something to lift north but I think the window is shut as far as anything major for U.S. Not to say the coming coastal storm will be insignificant. Lots of coastal damage looks to be incoming.
  17. MANDA
    Picked up an additional .16" rainfall after 8am measurement yesterday. Event total was .47". Ground moistened for rains later Sunday into Monday. Chilly and breezy morning here. Overnight low of 44. So glad we have moved on from 80+. Some of the coolest NJ mins attached:
  18. MANDA
    Over several high tide cycles. Verbatim that is a major coastal erosion / flooding event.
  19. MANDA
    Breaks of sun here and 56 degrees. So much better than the l/m 80's of the last several days.
  20. MANDA
    As of 8:00.....Light to some moderate rain ongoing. Chilly and damp. Temp. 59 with a gusty breeze. Rainfall thus far .31". Maybe another .10" to go. A tad less than I was expecting but soil is primed for what may come over the weekend into early next week.
  21. MANDA
    Agreed! Can't remember last time I saw something like this. Really interesting.
  22. MANDA
    yep, remember the "stuck" issue well. That auto roller on the back of the machine was only good enough to roll 10-12 hours of maps after that it was a guaranteed jam. How many times you cut yourself replacing that sharp metal helix?
  23. MANDA
    Wow, I've not looked at those maps in a long time ! Reminds me of the old DIFAX days.
  24. MANDA
    12Z GFS verbatim looks pretty threatening for some serious wave / erosion action up to NJ/LI. Interested to see what the EURO / AI does shortly. Back and forth we go.
  25. MANDA
    Yeah, should be interesting. I kind of said the same thing yesterday. Lots of model frustration looming.
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