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Everything posted by MANDA
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Weather has been nice but man it is boring as hell. I'd rather watch water evaporate. Soon to become hot and boring. It also looks to continue pretty dry. Lawn is crisping and garden needs regular watering. Missed out on any big rains here over the last several weeks. Hopefully in the next week to 10 days we'll have something meaningful to track in the tropics. Big ridge out there so westerly movement is favored over re-curvature OTS in the longer term.
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Low here this morning was 54. Few upper 40's normal NWNJ chilly spots. Great weather to open August. No complaints from me. I guess next up in terms of interesting weather will be how much heat returns in about 10 days or so and what the tropics can produce as MJO comes around into favorable phases. Some interesting ensemble and op model solutions as we head toward mid month. If we can keep some sort of upper ridge parked to our NE might be interesting. Either way overall pattern looks to support more westerly tracks with lower chance of re curvature OTS. We'll see how it plays out.
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Outflow boundary along and south of 78. Storms firing up along it. Highest risk area for excessive totals and Flash Flooding sadly looks to repeat in an area that was recently hit hard....along and especially south of R78 in NJ and then into and near SI / NYC. Areas to the NW of that especially west of 287 and along and north of 80 seem to be in an area where excessive totals and the threat for Flash Flooding is minimal and decreasing.
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Hence why I said "nearing" the 1995 levels.
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Some of these local HI readings are getting close to the suffocating heat of 1995.
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Highly urbanized locations have not dropped below 80. Very steamy.
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11:0O heat index CP 90 and EWR 95