MANDA
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
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Totally agree. Is terrible for ski areas though as you said.
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Helluva winter for sure!
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Off topic for this forum but a nice wintry scene up in Barrow this afternoon. Check out the drifting.
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
MANDA replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I read your post and how to go check to see if it was who I thought it was. It was. This person has really gone off the deep end last several years. Shame. Lindsey Storm -
Pathetic.
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53 pages on the 8th of the month and no snow or cold to show for it so far. I know full well that is what was expected but that is a lot of "chit chat" over a pending pattern change. Keep calm and carry on.
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Was going to guess once in a 500 year return. Wow, that is really impressive. Thanks!
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Wonder what the return period is for totals like that? Any Idea Don? Any records set with that total? Single storm? Month?
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In cases like this (and for most of the events so far this season for that matter) they should be. Far better in marginal situations than 10:1 maps / Kuchera. It situations like this those 10:1 maps are pure folly and you are only setting yourself up for disappointment. To each his own I guess.
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No confidence in a 360 hour prog, even if ensemble. I do like the elongated TPV though. That WNW lobe from NW Hudson Bay into the NWT is ripe to come plunging southeast (and possibly phase) if the western ridge pumps. That is the way you could do something big. Like I said though 360 hours out....need this look to persist as we move forward in time. Like the look but too far out for more than passing interest from me at this point. Plenty frigid in central and northern Canada so cold air is there to be tapped if everything were to fall into place. Would modify more than usual with bare U.S. ground and warm lakes but could turn very cold (at least 1 shot of it) if things fall into place.
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Based on what I'm seeing so far I'd have to give the nod to below normal snowfall for February. Developing pattern favors keeping us on the colder side of normal for second half of the month but IMO not near cold enough to wipe out the warmth of the first half.
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I'll bet the farm that February finishes above normal by at least 2 degrees.
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12" at least...preferably 18".
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Imagine if we had an outbreak like that one in 1996 today! Climate doing what climate does....changing always.
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I'll take cluster 3 for the win. Cluster 2 for the consolation prize.
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Colder I'm on board with but to use Major Snowstorm "likely"....seems a bit aggressive to me at this point.
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Can still get very meaningful cold in February but you are 100% correct that the lack of ice on the Great Lakes + late February sun angle + possibility of bare ground upstream will certainly temper what could have been if the lakes were ice covered and some snow was on the ground. Sun angle we can't help.
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Yep, as the block moves more east that is when the torch fires. That is when the big warm departures will make their mark on first half of February. Hopefully we can get back to around normal by the 15th. and then get colder from there. Not at all likely any cold mid and late month will wipe out the positive departures from the first half of the month. Also, unless February is unusually stormy we should finish near or below normal in the precipitation department.
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That is one blocked up upper air pattern. Going to take a while to get the train moving again. Going to be a real snoozer next 10-14 days, as per guidance. Then we'll see what happens. I'm pretty convinced of a period of BN temps from 2/15 - 2/20 or thereabouts. How much beyond that? Does the pattern produce for meaningful snow, 6"+ forum wide? It could but it doesn't have to. Patterns like the one that is forecast for mid / late month have failed to produce more so than not last year and this. At least something to watch with interest over the next two weeks to see how it develops. In the meantime it will give the ground a chance to dry out around here. Be thankful the block has setup the way it did. Any further east we would really warm up, as it is we'll be in a NW flow of at least cool / chilly air with cold nights and daytime temperatures not truly torching. Any further west would have kept us in a cloudy, raw and damp pattern.
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I suspect we'll bump up a notch or two by 2/15.
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.20" snowfall here overnight into this morning. Looks pretty. Nickle and dime events and I still am not at 12" for the season.
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Total rainfall here with this last event was 1.37". Trace of snow yesterday morning. Majority of this rain fell with the temperatures between 33 and 35 degrees ! Frustrating to say the least. I wasn't expecting much, maybe a half inch on colder surfaces but didn't even get that.
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Total rainfall here with this last event was 1.37". Trace of snow yesterday morning. Majority of this rain fell with the temperatures between 33 and 35 degrees ! Frustrating to say the least. I wasn't expecting much, maybe a half inch on colder surfaces but didn't even get that.
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I'll say one thing about this map. First time this season I've see a cold high in the right place with classic banana shape to funnel cold air in. I'm not implying anything one way or the other just that I like the look of the surface map. Long way to go and I'm not getting excited about a 198 hour prog, ensemble or op. Something to watch....that's all.
