MANDA

Same. Very aggressive. Especially SNJ. Again, they know what they are doing.

Wow. Pretty aggressive along the south shore of LI back to EWR. Me personally I would have gone lower to start and then raise if needed tomorrow and/or Saturday. I just think you set yourself up for egg on face starting at the upper ranges. Just my 2 cents. They clearly know what they are doing. Any subtle shift north and those amounts will under perform.

I'm more conservatively going with 6-10 at this point along the I78 and I80 Corridor. Allowing for the mid level warming to be a little more aggressive than modeled. Although the latest EURO has me leaning to much less mixing north of 80 and west of 287. Still significant uncertainty on exactly how the 2ndary unfolds. QPF very consistent at around 1" on all guidance. Only if something totally unexpected happened with the 2ndary would that go up markedly. Use 1" of QPF and the ratio of your choosing to to convert to snowfall and allow for sleet to mix where you believe it will mix in.

Read this morning the UKIE got an upgrade yesterday and in terms of skill scores it is 2nd. to EURO.

All guidance has been consistent for a few days now on .9 to 1.2" of QPF. A few ticks up / down at times but in general have been locked in on around 1" of liquid.

It has better evolution and track for the secondary. Kind of on its own right now with that solution.

Thanks @SACRUS for your map postings last 24 hours or so. I'm on the road today so nice to pull over and scroll through here to get a sense of what the models are doing even if I don't have time to look at upper level stuff etc. I have to say the RDPS and ICON secondary placement is not bad. Just have to get it going fast enough to halt the warming mid levels. If it gets going fast enough it could keep the immediate interior mostly snow. Either way 6-8 / 6-10 seems like a good call based on the early guidance so far this morning. Higher end of range with some upside potential if secondary cooperates.

Temperatures across Alberta Province of Canada this morning are running -20 to -40F. Temperatures either side of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba are -20 to -25F. Impressive cold!

That 10 for immediate NYC region could be generous.

Yep and I would not ignore it.

Those amounts look pretty reasonable and I would agree with a 6-8" floor for the NYC Metro. In my mind that would include the Rt. 78 and 80 corridor through NJ.

One of the top 10 posts in this thread. 100%. Where the secondary develops, how it tracks and how fast it can potentially halt the mid level warming will be important to duration of event and how much snow might fall after the mix perhaps goes back to snow. Ideally this low will develop off the VA/DE coast and move towards Nantucket and Block Island gradually deepening as it goes. This might be asking a lot though. We'll see. Either way there will be a good dump of snow and sleet to ice it up. The snow pack will not be going anywhere anytime soon. At this point, pending future model runs I'm expecting sleet to get mixed in as far north as my area. Just don't like it when the 700/850 are so far NW, at least initially.

Told my peeps across central and north Jersey this afternoon: 6"+ as a starting point.

Canadian skill scores are notably higher than the GFS. I’d keep the Canadian option on the table for the moment. Let’s see what the UKIE AND EURO have to add shortly. GFS skill scores are at the bottom of the pack.

Modeling through 06Z and ICON at 12Z so far have been pretty steady with QPF of between .7" and 1.1". Be happy. Be ecstatic with that right now. Be happy. Be ecstatic with 10:1 - 12:1 ratios. Consider anything above 12:1 as gravy *IF* it happens. To assume at this point 15:1 or 20:1 is just foolish.

Got down to 6 here on top of the hill, my location is the highest point in the area. Other readings at lower elevations around me were in the +1 to +2 range. Saw a +5 and +7 but not sure of their elevation. NJ coldest mins:

Sorry I missed that! Was living in Chatham, NJ at the time and don't remember exact numbers from that cold and icy winter but I do remember it was COLD!

Yeah, I wish there was more data. If the -34 was correct I would have to agree the NW NJ ice box spots might have been -40. I have always thought the -34 was too low though. Would like to know more about it. Good luck getting your weather station up. Shoot for Thursday....warmest day we'll see for a while.

Current temperatures at or below 10 across NJ. Only made it to 19 here today under bright sun. Currently 8. Cold by all accounts I'd say.

A note about the EURO. It has been trying to pop a surface low south of L.I. on the last few runs at some point Monday. That is what keeps the precipitation going thus adding to the QPF forecast totals. That is kind of a wildcard in my opinion. If it happens, where it happens and how strong it gets. Something to watch on future runs.

It is trying real hard for something special.

Gotta like that look. Just need to keep it or improve on it. If we can keep these 18Z trends going at 00Z and then 12Z tomorrow that would be great....at least on the EURO, GGEM and UKMET. If the GFS comes to the party and stays so much the better.

Only difference is that was a coastal bomb with very intense deformation banding for hours mid and late storm. This upcoming event is not really a synoptic comparison. At least not at this time. Get the full energy out of the SW and a complete, clean phase then all bets might be off. No matter what, we have a legit threat of something late weekend into early next week and for me half the fun and excitement is in the tracking.

WPC is not known to making large jumps with this product which is issued twice a day. Over the last several issuance's the 1/2" area has been gradually shifted north to a TTN to NYC line. I believe they rely heavily on NBM but not sure.

15:1 possible assuming soundings are favorable. Me personally I'd stick with 12:1 for now when calculating snowfall off the current QPF forecasts. Not to mention in a long duration storm the ratios can change from high to low or vice versa during the storm duration. Deformation death bands can produce great ratios. So maybe a storm that has 10:1 to 20:1 throughout the storm duration averages out to 15:1 when all is said and done. Just to early make ratio forecasts. Way to premature to even stay 15:1 IMO.