MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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I think he is just trying to make the point that there is a large difference between the max NAM/SREF amounts and most everything else. The RGEM is not a trash model. Give it a chance unfold and see where this is going. Me personally I don’t think we see 24”+ amounts with this but I also believe RGEM amounts are on the low side.
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Updated my final forecast for out this way at 10:00 last night to 12-18”. We’ll see how this all turns out soon enough. The 12” seems like a reasonable floor and anything over 18” would have to come from intense banding which is hard to nail down in advance. We’ll see how it plays out. Currently light snow and 31 degrees. Western edge was always going to be difficult and the NAM insane amounts were not be believed verbatim. Good luck to all!!!!
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Just can never remember so much flip flopping. It has had fails but this last week if runs was just horrendous.
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Could be I guess. These days who knows what the hell is real or AI.
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Will see what I can send you once we’re done with this storm and I get back on a regular sleep schedule.
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Good grief bro. Get yourself a better base map. Looks like a 70’s neon sigh. I fully expected it to pulse in and out. You clearly put work into it but you need a better base map.
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That western cutoff is painful to look at. Amounts fall off quickly once you cross into EPA.
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That and models POSSIBLY sniffing out some banding features.
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Not endorsing the amounts by any means. Interesting though that the NAM, SREF and HRRR have been targeting these two areas for several consecutive runs.
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Yes. See map Don posted for this upcoming storm only.
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The January event ticked upwards right up until the event was underway. Went into it thinking about 1” or a little more of liquid and ended up with 1.5”. Totally different setup between this and that of course but it got wetter right up until the event.
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I'll say this.....the visible satellite pictures off the Northeast coast Monday are going to be a sight to behold.
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Said this a few times yesterday. This is going to do better than 10:1 at times during the storm.
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Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA. Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ.
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Solidly driving very heavy amounts well into the Catskills FWIW.
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With the 12Z data so far this morning I am comfortable with my 10-15” forecast for my area. Don’t plan on any changes until after I see the mesos this evening. I think it is a good blend between the insane NAM totals and tamer RGEM.
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My forecast as of now for my location is 10-15”. Trying to stay reasonable. Banding and extent of NW push will tell the tale.
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Last night I thought I would be happy with 12”. Now I want 18” or bust.
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Watch these meso models now to see how this starts to evolve. These closer in tracks with a track to inside the BM will up the ante.
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Like the look of this. Will get the nuclear totals solidly into NWNJ. Almost go time. 12Z Mesos will start really zoning in on this one way or the other.
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If these trends hold absolutely. Going to be some insane banding as this matures.
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So sorry. Truly.
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I think the winds will break up the dendrites and slightly temper accumulations but I don't think this is going to be a wet paste type of snow that clings to everything such that it will bring down trees and power lines. Not going to be champagne powder either.
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Yes. Especially in heavier bands.
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By Saturday morning after 12Z cycle everyone was going ape shit. Remember it well.
