MANDA

The days leading up to Christmas are going to be cold. The last CMC was extreme and not likely but I'm pretty confident it is going to be below normal as we start Christmas week. Can't keep paying attention to flip flopping guidance. Pattern is supporting a cold run up to Christmas. Snow is another story, not likely. For the record, something as cold as last CMC run is not entirely out of the question. The degree of how cold it turns is uncertain at this point.

Only good thing is that it looks solidly below normal in the days leading up to and through Christmas, that seems like a lock at this point. At least no balmy 50's - 60 with rain. The pattern the following week looks nasty though, that is a little further away so we'll see but better than 50% confidence for a mild run up to New Year's. Seems very unlikely to me that CP will see any measurable from now through the end of the month. We should be grateful that December looks to finish below normal temperature wise. That is a big win these days.

Summary of November and Meteorological Fall 2024 for NJ. https://www.njweather.org/content/peculiar-indeed-november-and-fall-2024-recaps

Some of the coldest lows across NJ this morning. Low was 14 degrees here.

Any idea what the temperatures were like with that. Was that one of those frigid early 80's outbreaks. I have a feeling it must have been major cold as in the vodka gels.

There was no movement in the Drought Monitor issued yesterday but the most recent rains were not figured into it. Should be some improvement in next weeks issuance. These are some nice 3 week totals.

Not at all unexpected. I do admire the optimism around here though.

Very sarcastic.

I used to doodle maps like this op run when I was in the 5th. grade!

Shit. Heaviest totals once again to my southeast. Dammit! I was hoping for at least 30" here.

Winds howled here last evening once the front went through. Briefly lost power. Gusty all night and still gusty this morning. Much winder behind the front then out ahead of it yesterday around here.

1.2" yesterday. Two day total = 1.82" Three day total = 2.21".

Rainfall yesterday was 1.2". Three day event total = 2.21".

More heavy rain approaching my area from the west.

Pouring here with winds gusting to about 25 mph. Rain pelting against the house. Based on radar it is not going to last long but right now it is heavy.

Just posting story link here since others have posted that they have seen the drones. I've not seen any. Interesting. Seems far beyond just hobbyist drone flyers. Not sure what is up with so many flying around. Feel free to remove if too far off topic. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14181799/drones-new-jersey-state-emergency-ufo-ocean-sighting.html

Skinny "squall line" about ready to push through my area. Expecting some heavier rain and some gusty winds.

.62" as of 8am. Two day total = 1.01". Winds minimal. A few gusts to 20-25 mph.

Nope. Wouldn't be shocked either if the next op model cycle looked nothing like the current one. 10 day OP runs are bad enough and now we have added the EURO going out to 15 days along with the GFS. Pure fantasy. I'm all for pushing the limits of science but these 10 and 15 day op runs are essentially useless. The ensembles are better but even they flip from cycle to cycle a lot of the time.

Key here is "keep your expectations low" Not saying there can't be a few surprises but I'm not seeing anything right now that is offering a prolonged BN temperature regime or a favorable pattern for east coast snowstorms. Again, a few well timed systems with cold air could certainly deliver. Overall though the pattern is looking similar to the last several winters.

Had .39" here last 24 hours. Just about what I was expecting. #happy

Well the latest Euro 360 is on the crack pipe. Let's watch this day by day and see where it goes. Verbatim would be very cold and potentially stormy Christmas holiday period. I'll take the under at this point.

Westward shifts like clockwork.

In addition to frozen pipes historic cold is often dry, granted historic cold can sometimes end with something big but that is the exception rather than the rule. Modest cold with a good storm track will be a win around here.

Will be interesting to see if heavier totals back west in future model runs. Certainly that has been the trend (excluding the current dry pattern of the last 2 months) over the past two years, for things to trend west. Especially on the GFS.