MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Same here. Overnight low of 45. Turned the heat on.
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Not exactly ....... weather with that depicted pattern.
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Getting closer little by little and day by day.
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Three day rainfall total here = 3.16". Still ongoing mist and drizzle.
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PRE going on right there. Taken verbatim could be a notable flooding event for parts of the forum. Still a ways to go before final solution comes into better focus and this is the NAM after all.
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Received 1.48" rainfall over the last two days. Euro did best, at least for my location. Was more rainfall that I was expecting. Was thinking on the order of .50.
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FWIW HPC is going with the wetter solutions for the weekend.....subject to change of course.
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So much for the AI modeling. Looks like they have more "learning" to do. Was interesting to watch though.
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Low this morning of 49. Very pleasant albeit a rather boring weather pattern in progress.
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Another nickle and dime rainfall day here last 24 hours. Total = .15". Total since last Wednesday = 1.31". Nothing noteworthy in terms of wind, thunder / lightning, heavy rainfall rates. Just off and on passing moderate to briefly heavy showers / T-showers for the last 6 days.
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That track would cause moderate to severe beach erosion, tidal flooding and extremely dangerous surf/waves into the Gulf of Maine and on the North and NE facing beaches of Cape Cod ( Boston Harbor as well) as N to NE winds would pound the coast until the center passes a given latitude and winds back into the NW. If it were to track more on the left side of the cone it of course would be worse but that is not likely at this time. Sprawling wind field will have plenty fetch to pile up water in advance of the center before it passes. Expect coastal flood warnings etc. as we move into late week.
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Some maps with total rainfall since last Wednesday. (click map to enlarge)
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Still running on the lower side of totals here since last Wednesday when this wet pattern began. Last 24 hours = .53" and total since last Wednesday = 1.16".
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At this point I'll take a front that will at least clear out the humidity! Getting a little tired of the warmth + humidity.
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Nickle and dime totals last several days here. Totals ending 8:00 a.m.: Friday = .32" Saturday = .14" Sunday = .17" Since 8am this morning .12" Heavier totals pretty much all around my location.
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Several rounds of showers and T-showers last evening and overnight. Fast moving and the bulk of the rain was to my NW. Received .32" here.
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Early first look at 00Z tropical models. Still bending more westward near end of run. The end of the run starts to enter the pivotal time as Lee approaches 70W. Exactly where it is located at 120 hours and the direction and speed of movement at that time will start to tell the tale of where it is ultimately headed.
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12Z EPS has nudged left with some members land falling Lee along parts of the Northeast coast. Going to be very interesting to follow EPS next several days for longer range trends, especially after data from synoptic missions gets into the models. Impacts **IF ANY** are 7-9 days away. Will be interesting to follow....not an absolute slam dunk Lee is OTS. Has been my feeling and remains so.
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I think they will.
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Potentially yes, but not until mid next week or so.
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Totally understood, was just trying to convey I was not expecting it to stay at cat 4 / 5 levels for an extended period of time and certainly not to once north of the islands. Would even be surprised if after the ERC is complete if it got back to near peak or peak.
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It has to weaken, you are not going to keep this pristine environment that long. Will be a huge wave and swell producer for east coast and Atlantic Canada but this is not going to hang onto cat 4 / 5 status once north of the Islands. The environment and overall pattern does degrade.
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Nice dual outflow channels with northern one evacuating into an atmospheric sink.
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They looked at the latest satellite and said "hell no"
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Wet times ahead with potential moderate to severe flooding for western and NW sections of this forum into parts of New England. Good thing it has been on the drier side lately. This is without anything from Lee. Still seems more likely than not that there is no effect from Lee as far as wind and rain for the east coast but that is not a lock IMO.
