MANDA

Sorry, you are right. Not as much as Tallahassee suggested anyway. Not as open but still much less impressive than western semicircle. It has pretty much been that way at least off and on for the last 12 hours.

Such an odd radar presentation. Completely open on southeast side. That western and northwestern side is a beast. Perry going to take a hard hit over the next 2 hours. Hope the poster from Perry can stay with us for details as long as power / cell towers hold up.

Yep, would expect an update from TPC very soon. Inland wind damage in a narrow swath is going to be severe. I guess we just witnessed history. First ever major in recorded history to enter Appalachee Bay.

Looking good!

Recon reports show Idalia is moving a little east of due north now. Last advisory was due north (360) we'll see what 8pm and 11 pm show but IMO by 11:00 advisory should be on at least a 10 degree heading. I think recon is picking up on the expected turn to the NNE by tomorrow morning.

Maximum surge will be basically be coming into nature preserves and marshes. Uninhabited, so yes could not ask for better landfall location as far as surge threat to life and property. As center moves onshore and winds spread inland that is going to be a big problem!

Some impressive surge flooding vicinity Ft. Myers earlier today. Tampa Bay should see some notable water rise later tonight to around pre-dawn tomorrow. LOTS of water going to be piling into Appalachee Bay between mid-night and dawn tomorrow. Fort Myers photos.

TPC had forward motion at 050 degrees earlier today. Latest advisory is a 360 degree heading, about 5-10 miles east of 85W. Suspect landfall is is between 83 to 84 west around or just before sunrise tomorrow.

Said this morning I was expecting to see an eye by sunset....Idalia is trying very hard to get there! Overshooting clouds tops pretty much wrapping around the center for the first time. CDO is rather small and compact though.

Idalia is trying hard based on satellite and radar. Really thought by this time (late afternoon) we would have started to see an eye starting to pop and clear out on satellite. So far recon is not overly impressive.

You knew Katrina meant business when it exited the SW coast of FL more organized than when it came in on the SE coast. That storm just had the look from the get go. Classic "brown ocean" intensification while tracking across the Everglades.

Interesting from NWS Tallahassee. Didn't realize a major had never entered that region before.

Southeast rains. Unusual to see widespread shower / T-Storm activity out ahead of a hurricane like this. Usually sinking air in advance. Looks to me like a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) ongoing. Bands of rain/storms along Fl west coast are more directly related to Idalia.

Pretty much crickets and tumbleweeds around here for the next week or so. Snooze fest weather wise. Would have been real interesting if Idalia made a run up along the Appalachians but no trof deep enough to get the job done.

Solid core developing now. TPC forecast of 125 mph landfall looks solid. I'd say landfall is before daybreak tomorrow, a little sooner that TPC 11am Advisory suggests.

Could not pick a better place to landfall in Florida is terms of coastal population and coastal infrastructure. Mostly Wildlife Management areas and marsh. Will keep surge damage / loss to a relative minimum. Inland wind damage is another story. Lots of tree damage and power outages on tap.

Very much agree!

Thinking along same lines on possible adjustment to the right in track and for the same reason you mentioned, though not thinking as far to the right as Sarasota. Pine Island maybe? IMO not concerned about any dry air, atmosphere looks moist ahead (especially if track is more to the right) and if there is some dry air entrained from the SW it should be able to get mixed out quickly with increasingly favorable jet divergence aloft.

From the looks of things Idalia is getting ready to launch. Satellite and radar looking quite impressive. Idalia is just getting ready to cross into the southern GOM. I said about 36 hours ago if she can have a core established by that time the stronger solutions will play out. Looks to be entering the GOM as an intensifying Tropical Cyclone. Once she center clears western Cuba I think we are going to be in for a show. Also, IMO I think the nudges westward in the track guidance are over. Looking at WV loop the small upper low over the FL Panhandle is moving east and lifting out. Idalia should follow in that general direction as upper trof dropping through the GL/Upper Ohio Valley eventually takes over the shunts her east off SC/NC coast. Landfall I believe is 25 miles either side of Cedar Key. No doubt in my mind though that the lid is going to come off the pot soon.

Watch for little nudges to the right in future TPC updates. Any nudge to the right ups the ante for surge into Tampa Bay. Also watch for potential bumps up in the intensity forecast. Will have a much better idea on both track and ultimate intensity by this time tomorrow. Potential here for the most significant surge into Tampa Bay in a long time. Much depends on exact track but not likely this is going inland south of Tampa to keep them out of a surge problem. Next several model cycles with all the data from synoptic missions fed in should offer better idea on estimated landfall point.

Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm. Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean. If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go. If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down. If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned!

I've seen so many systems NAMED that did not look near as good as this!

Yes, it is humid here today but man it could be worse!

1.36" rainfall here.

The ones that are struggling / weak on their way in tend not to be disrupted as much as something with a well developed core. Just my opinion. I've seen this happen in the past. If it is weak and in a moist lower shear environment it tends to fair better. We'll see what it does in the days ahead but seems to me it should reach hurricane intensity without much trouble. Franklin will tally up some ACE points.