MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Solid core developing now. TPC forecast of 125 mph landfall looks solid. I'd say landfall is before daybreak tomorrow, a little sooner that TPC 11am Advisory suggests.
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Could not pick a better place to landfall in Florida is terms of coastal population and coastal infrastructure. Mostly Wildlife Management areas and marsh. Will keep surge damage / loss to a relative minimum. Inland wind damage is another story. Lots of tree damage and power outages on tap.
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Very much agree!
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Thinking along same lines on possible adjustment to the right in track and for the same reason you mentioned, though not thinking as far to the right as Sarasota. Pine Island maybe? IMO not concerned about any dry air, atmosphere looks moist ahead (especially if track is more to the right) and if there is some dry air entrained from the SW it should be able to get mixed out quickly with increasingly favorable jet divergence aloft.
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From the looks of things Idalia is getting ready to launch. Satellite and radar looking quite impressive. Idalia is just getting ready to cross into the southern GOM. I said about 36 hours ago if she can have a core established by that time the stronger solutions will play out. Looks to be entering the GOM as an intensifying Tropical Cyclone. Once she center clears western Cuba I think we are going to be in for a show. Also, IMO I think the nudges westward in the track guidance are over. Looking at WV loop the small upper low over the FL Panhandle is moving east and lifting out. Idalia should follow in that general direction as upper trof dropping through the GL/Upper Ohio Valley eventually takes over the shunts her east off SC/NC coast. Landfall I believe is 25 miles either side of Cedar Key. No doubt in my mind though that the lid is going to come off the pot soon.
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Watch for little nudges to the right in future TPC updates. Any nudge to the right ups the ante for surge into Tampa Bay. Also watch for potential bumps up in the intensity forecast. Will have a much better idea on both track and ultimate intensity by this time tomorrow. Potential here for the most significant surge into Tampa Bay in a long time. Much depends on exact track but not likely this is going inland south of Tampa to keep them out of a surge problem. Next several model cycles with all the data from synoptic missions fed in should offer better idea on estimated landfall point.
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Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm. Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean. If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go. If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down. If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned!
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I've seen so many systems NAMED that did not look near as good as this!
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Yes, it is humid here today but man it could be worse!
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1.36" rainfall here.
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The ones that are struggling / weak on their way in tend not to be disrupted as much as something with a well developed core. Just my opinion. I've seen this happen in the past. If it is weak and in a moist lower shear environment it tends to fair better. We'll see what it does in the days ahead but seems to me it should reach hurricane intensity without much trouble. Franklin will tally up some ACE points.
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Franklin looking very healthy as it crosses DR/Haiti. Nice outflow and banding. Low shear and warm water ahead should get Franklin to Hurricane status with not much trouble.
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For longevity for sure, tracked for 10 days. Intensity was ho-hum and it was out of the deep tropics. Still counts I get it but so far this season we've seen mainly weak and short lived systems. Says much about how unfavorable things have been atmospherically speaking. Franklin only hope in the coming days of racking up some ACE points. We'll see what condition he is in after emerging from DR/Haiti.
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Emily, Gert and Harold had a combined total of 1.4 ACE points. Just throwing it out there for those of us who care about such things. IMO Gert was a waste of a name. At best was a borderline Tropical Cyclone and TPC held onto the designation way beyond what it should have been if it ever should have been. Emily was legit for a short time as was Harold. I suspect if Harold had about another 12 hours over water would have reached Hurricane status. Looked good coming onshore based on radar and satellite. Lots of names but not much sizzle so far this season.
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Evapotranspiration a.k.a. "corn sweat" in high gear.
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Gotta feel sorry for the folks out in the central U.S. Heat indexes 115-120 in spots! Nasty stuff.
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Might be less than 2 ACE points between them when all is said and done. Gert will hang on until 5 pm as a named system only because they didn't pull the plug at 11, which they easily could have done. Looks pathetic.
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Emily was legit for a short time and Gert was an absolute joke. Never would have been named back in the 70's, 80's or 90's. There is just more of this going on in recent years. System in the Gulf "has the look" but will run out of water before it can get out of hand. Thinking it will be designated at least a depression and MAYBE a TS. Regardless, it will bring much needed rainfall to Texas. Franklin only one of the bunch that will generate any meaningful ACE points. Any comparison of this "burst" of names to 1995 is absurd.
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Will get a some minimal ACE points from this but so far this season it has been quantity over quality.
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Nice plots and I totally agree. Back in the "cooler" climate this would have been a noteworthy cool summer. Has got to make you wonder when the pattern will break down and can't help but feel we have wasted and are wasting an eastern trough during the warmer months and if we flip back to ridging over the east for winter. This pattern may have happened at the wrong time for winter weather lovers. Unlikely this pattern persists for the next 6-7 months with any staying power. On the other hand we are kind of in uncharted territory with climate extremes lately so who knows.
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On another topic. Gotta love the naked cloud swirl otherwise known as TD 6. So far this season we are going with quantity and not quality. Coming into peak season so we'll see what happens. Not expecting anything long lived or intense this coming week.
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We really got lucky! Could haven beeen a nasty stretch were it not for that blocking. Nations mid section will sizzle. No clouds / rain there for most of the week. Heat index readings will approach 115, locally higher in spots. Pretty much as hot as it can get in mid to late August.
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Overnight low here was 53. Walpack dipped to 49 per NJ WxNet. I don't know how anyone could complain about this weather. Some areas of the country have been going through hell this summer....literally. This weather is amazing.
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Interesting satellite picture this morning. That smoke is going to get trapped under building very strong upper ridge over the nations mid-section. Some hot and hazy days there. Thankfully we will be on the northeastern flank of that ridge (at least for now) and a dry (not much rain coming up) NW flow of pleasant weather should generally be the rule. A day of heat here and there ahead of cold fronts that beat it back. Close call. If that ridge were further east would would be in late August sizzle mode I'm not really impressed for anything noteworthy in the tropics for the next week. Conditions rather hostile for anything intense or long lived. Certainly nothing to threaten the east coast over at least the next 7-10 days. Will be interesting to see what the disturbance east of the Bahamas does once it enters the gulf. Atmospheric conditions marginal but water nearing hot tub warmth so worth keeping an eye on.
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Just .15" rainfall here. Dare I say that is ok....we're good for a while. Nice refreshing air mass moving in....for mid August I will take it. Windows open for a few nights up this way.
