MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Little light snow in Barrow, AK this morning. Currently -7F in Alert, NU Canada. We're heading into the cold season!
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Speaking strictly about wind and power outages. Track (and size) matters. Max winds and max areal coverage of power outages are along and east of the track. As it usually is landfall location and inland track are important. The people in eastern third of GA and upstate SC can confirm that. I'm thinking many in those areas were taken by surprise by the amount of wind damage and such huge areal power outages. For most a short distance west of the track this was not a big deal. Along and east huge deal. PRE was also super important to flooding. Helene moved quickly. Had there not been such a notable PRE flooding from Helene would have been far less. Just my 2 cents.
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Two day rainfall total here as of 8:00 this morning: .28". All of it went to good use as it was a off and on periods of light rain and drizzle. The rainfall along with cloudy skies and cooler temperatures making things look a little greener. Leaves are changing with some good color getting underway. Some of the maples are a a really nice reddish orange.
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https://x.com/i/status/1839548321347551518
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Don't see things like this on a regular basis. https://x.com/i/status/1839503993711525929 https://x.com/i/status/1839496312527401048
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Very safe assumption.
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Same here. Received .18" last 24 hours! I'll take it!
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Trying hard! Next 12 hours are going to tell the tale. I am questioning the Cat 4 at this point but Cat 3 seems like a solid call. It has got to tighten up overnight if it is going to take a run at 4. Sure is amazing to watch but glad I am not in the path. A week + w/o power and potential historic flooding is definitely something I can live without. Going to impact a lot of people once it plows inland. Thankfully highest surge for the most part will impact sparely populated areas. Still going to be surge issues Fl west coast though that will cause problems. Not minimizing that.
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Had periods of very light rain and mist/drizzle at times today. Did not check gauge but will do so in the morning. There were small puddles so I'm going to guess maybe .10 - .15", but just a guess. Was out and about and needed the wipers on! Whats more temperatures never got out of the low 60's all day. Was chilly and damp. Felt like fall! Not enough rain to make any kind of difference but I'll take it.
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Everything looks on track. Fully expect Hurricane status by 11:00 a.m. advisory. Center will not landfall over the Yucatan. Give it a little time to pull into the southern GOM and clear the influence of the Yucatan and we'll really be on the upswing. Surge going to be a big issue for a large area near and east of track. FL west coast Tampa vicinity on north going to take a hit. No joke...if ordered to evacuate you should go. Inland wind and flooding going to be a big problem mainly for Georgia. Expect massive power outages over a large area.
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100% correct we'll be getting no help from the tropics anytime soon that's for sure.
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Hope so. We'll see if most of that "evaporates" as we get closer to go time. I am not overly optimistic.
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Getting “the look”. Expect hurricane status by 11:00 am advisory tomorrow. Center should graze Yucatán but I wouldn’t expect landfall so it should have minimal effect on circulation / intensity. Surge on west Coast of FL could be bad especially Tampa vicinity on northward. Water will pile toward the coast and motion of Helene and associated wind trajectory will prevent it from flowing back out until center is well inland. I’d also watch for potential nudges east in TPC track over next several advisories. Maybe by as much as 50+ miles.
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No doubt about it. COC is low located under the deep convection. Classic satellite presentation (time sensitive before sun sets) and outflow is getting better over the eastern semicircle, especially the NE quadrant. Pressures are falling and I believe this is the start of Helene pulling it together. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop180.html
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Interesting Satellite loop (time sensitive) as center continues to drift sw away from deepest convection. No doubt there are TS winds associated with all the convection to the NE of the LLC so I get the upgrade. Will be interesting to see if convection develops over current LLC or new enter forms under the deep convection. ULL over the Yucatan is backing NW but there is clearly still SW shear affecting Helene. Interesting to watch this develop. I would not be surprised to see nudges east in the track over the next 24 hours or so. Either way depending on how fast Helene can intensify the current track (depending on intensity) could push A LOT of water onto the west coast of FL, especially from just south of Tampa northward. Link to visible loop: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop60.html
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Same here. Anything!
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That ULL also helped to classically ventilate "John" allowing it to strengthen. Likely a major at landfall over the next 6 hours or so. The same ULL is currently generating shear over at least the western semicircle of TC9. It is going to have to get out of the way before PTC9 can start to crank.
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Just a trace of rainfall here today with a few sprinkles. At least with a heavy overcast and temperatures in the 60's it felt like Fall. I thought it was a nice day in its own right. Still leaves us wanting some decent rain but nothing really in the cards for the rest of the week.
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Intensity of this is going to depend on trough interaction. Depending on how the cut off / trough develops/digs into the Mississippi Valley it will either increase the shear and make for a more lopsided system or it could help to ventilate it if enough separation takes place. Either way I'm still thinking on the order of Francine type intensity as I suggested yesterday. The cut off / trough will also impact track after landfall. Once inland system could get pulled N to NW towards the Mississippi Valley or be allowed to slide NNE or NE towards SC/NC. Lots to work out over the next couple of days.
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Agreed.
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Very reasonable solution IMO. Can't see it land falling much further west but some room for eastward adjustments. EURO intensity looks reasonable as well. Only game in town. MDR is about as quiet as it gets for this time of year. Classic CV tracker threats are done.
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From my point of view I'm not seeing a modeled large anticyclone aloft and as @NorthHillsWx noted possible less than favorable trough interaction.
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At this point it does not look like a significant ACE producer. We will get another named system and like 6 of the 7 named storms so far this season it will find land which is pretty impressive. Land interactions and Beryl are the highlights of this season so far, IMO. Worth watching for sure in the days ahead but not seeing blockbuster potential with this. Perhaps a situation similar to Francine as far as intensity. SST's are way warm but not seeing super favorable conditions aloft, at least at this point. We'll see where we are at the end of September but something along the lines of average number of named storms and ACE would be my call right now as we move through the second half of the season.
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Like the Ohio Valley trough positioning. Hopefully the trend holds or at least any shifts are minimal. That pattern could produce.
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Agreed. However a well positioned trough moving eastward under the block could have a lot to say about how this eventually evolves.
