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MANDA

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Everything posted by MANDA

  1. They looked at the latest satellite and said "hell no"
  2. Wet times ahead with potential moderate to severe flooding for western and NW sections of this forum into parts of New England. Good thing it has been on the drier side lately. This is without anything from Lee. Still seems more likely than not that there is no effect from Lee as far as wind and rain for the east coast but that is not a lock IMO.
  3. Just amazing! Wish recon could of been in there from earlier this morning. Would have loved to see actual pressure and wind data. I think though that it is just coming into travel range....about 50W is when they usually begin recon.
  4. Agreed! Thankfully the September sun angle helps a little, would have felt worse with a July sun angle. Impressive though.
  5. Will be interesting to see over the next 2-3 (12Z / 00Z) model cycles if the synoptic mission data causes any notable shift in track forecast. If Lee travels near or over the impressive cold wake left by Franklin it will be well off peak before it would affect Bermuda. If it stays south and west of that it would hold onto major status longer. Regardless, it will be generating huge waves and swells next week that will be an issue for the U.S. east coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada down the road. Not to mention the Islands in the coming days.
  6. Latest 7 day QPF from WPC. Reference post from Walt early this morning. Looks like a wet time for the NW and western sections of this sub forum over the next 7 days. Pretty much the same places that have been drenched the most all summer long. We better hope Lee stays out of the picture because any excessive rainfall from a tropical system (especially over these western and NW sections and New England) would not be a good situation. Very likely Lee does stay away but not guaranteed at this point. Regardless, some wet weather for parts of this sub forum over the next week to 10 days.
  7. Long ways to go but here are latest EPS (Tropical Models) and Intensity Guidance. EPS does show a cluster staying more south and coming further west. More so than prior cycle.
  8. Had a low here of 47 this morning. Along with a light breeze it was legit light jacket for a time earlier this morning. Walpack dipped to 42.
  9. Wow, quite a string of warm Septembers! Great stats...thanks! I suspect we end this September above to continue the streak! We'll see.
  10. Low of 56 degrees here this morning with s brisk breeze and low humidity! Really nice. I know the heat is coming next week but I'll take this while it lasts.
  11. Pretty scary. https://twitter.com/i/status/1696958390289805663
  12. https://twitter.com/i/status/1696886125103608002 Cedar Key
  13. https://twitter.com/i/status/1696857231780700670
  14. Before and after picture Horseshoe beach surge.
  15. We'll see if the extreme wind warning now in effect over the swath of FL gets extended NE into SE GA.
  16. I think less populated and confined to a small area. Very small core with Idalia. Not to mention rather meh eastern half. Strong winds confined to tight area on western side. No obs available on the immediate coast where landfall took place.
  17. Radar from Moody AFB Georgia.
  18. I agree, going to be bad. For sure in the top 5, especially for inland locations. Fast, or at least brisk forward motion over rather flat/marshy terrain at landfall will blunt dramatic reduction in the wind field for a while and it will tend to spread out.
  19. Sorry, you are right. Not as much as Tallahassee suggested anyway. Not as open but still much less impressive than western semicircle. It has pretty much been that way at least off and on for the last 12 hours.
  20. Such an odd radar presentation. Completely open on southeast side. That western and northwestern side is a beast. Perry going to take a hard hit over the next 2 hours. Hope the poster from Perry can stay with us for details as long as power / cell towers hold up.
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