MANDA

Yes, sorry. you are correct. It was the AVN / MRF for 93 and 96 for sure. Got carried away.

Feb 83 wasn't decided until the morning of for most of this forum. Guidance as of 11pm night before said no. Had surface low going east of Hatteras. My first clue was plotting up a surface map the morning of by hand (we did that back in the day) and there were good pressure falls into eastern NC and Hatteras had an E to ESE wind. Low was not going to pass east of them and up it came to off the coast of NJ about as far as ACY then scooted ENE from there. Took forever for snow to move from Staten Island into mid-town Manhattan. Big surge of moisture with DP's into the 60's off the coast of SC. Low was of modest depth in the mid to high 990's if I remember correctly. Very dynamic though as there was thunder and lightning for several hours at the peak of the event during the evening hours. One of my favorite storms in terms of snowfall intensity. Ended before sunrise and sun was out and melting underway by the afternoon. Drove home from the city just as the heavy stuff was getting underway. Lucky to have made it to Bayonne and stayed with a relative. Intensity was insane once I came out of the Lincoln Tunnel and the trip down the NJ Turnpike was hellish. The trip across the Newark Bay Extension took the better part of an hour. I was worried I was going to be stuck on that bridge but thankfully it crept along. By time I arrived in Bayonne better than 6" on the ground, about 3 hours after I left the city. 1978 was well forecast the LFM had it and kept it for 48 hours. Longer range Spectral / Baroclinic gave solid signal 5 days out and 5 day extended discussion from NMC (at the time) was all over it. 1993 forecast well in advance and hardly any wavering. Euro was all over it. GFS was flailing and was the last to lock it in but 5 days in advance the forecast signal was great. 1996 did not solidify until the 12Z runs the day before the event. Looked to pass south prior to those Saturday morning runs.

I think this is the surprise of the day - that northern band well up into Rockland and Westchester and even a bit beyond. Otherwise I think this all went as planned. I was going with flurries to 1/2" for my location and so far I'm sitting just over .10" with ongoing flurries. Totals further south also as forecast for the most part.

And keep the feature in the southwest moving along. Don't want that to slow down. We'll see what the EURO does with that. It has had a bias of slowing and hanging that feature up. Not sure if that was fixed in the recent upgrade. We'll get a hint in the next few days. If these pieces can come together we could get the goods. GFS flip flops aside there is decent GFES Ensemble support. At 5 days out this is about all you can expect. Would be happier if EURO and EPS at least nudged more favorable in the next 24 hours or so. I'm interested!

Model whiplash advisory in effect. Buckle up to prevent injury.

A period of light snow earlier but just light flurries now. Just shy of .10" at the moment.

Buckle up....to prevent model whiplash.

Going with flurries to perhaps 1/2" here but hard lean toward the flurries.

Got the Kuchera? I am sure we’ll do better than the standard 10:1. I see I am in the bullseye. That concerns me.

Good grief why???? This was never going to be anything of substance for them to begin with. Unless you go back 10 days or so with a few rogue runs. Melting down over what? They need to unburden themselves from what was never going to be.

Buckle up !

The anomaly map shows the impact of the impending snow cover nicely.

The greatest departures from normal for this upcoming cold always looked like they would be south central plains into the southeast. Anything coming into the Mid-Atlantic / Northeast will be greatly muted for the reasons you all suggested. Also, not great snow cover over the Plains, Mid-West / Ohio Valley either so even eastbound could will be modified. Gold standard for Arctic outbreaks is -40 at 850, not seeing that either. At least over the next 7-10 days. Still, this looks like a solid stretch of BN cold upcoming even if it is against our warmest set of normals on record.

Boy, that stat sure sheds light on a 30 year period. I could probably mention all 5 years off the top of my head. Those were tough times. There were some memorable storms in there, just very few of them.

Seems many are not focusing on the potential for lasting and some record setting cold. There is a growing and impressive signal for intense cold. Cross polar flow and frigid high pressure building from the high Arctic into the U.S. Could be quite a significant event down the plains and into the southern plains and southeast especially in terms of departures from normal. Severe citrus freeze?? Texas as well with impactful and life adjusting cold for a time over the next 2 weeks or so.

.17" rainfall overnight. No icing. Temperature only briefly dipped to 32 overnight. Currently 40. Average snow depth 1/2" with 50% coverage. Expect only plowed shoveled mounds to remain by the end of the weekend.

Guidance / ensembles in good agreement and persistent in dumping record or near record cold into the central and eastern U.S for second week of January. Very strong cold signal developing. Evolution and exact details uncertain. Some of the guidance developing intense high pressure from the high arctic southeast into the U.S. Depending on how things evolve could be accompanied by some snow around here. How much? Far away but the bitter outbreak signal is strong. Often times intense cold is dry but there are exceptions. If there is anything noteworthy around here as far as snowfall I'd say the window is January 7-12. Intense cold without snow is annoying and a waste of cold air.

.17" rainfall. No icing here. Temperature only briefly dipped to 32 overnight then rose slowly during bulk of precipitation event. Currently 40.

The road crews in my area are sure ready. Salt literally dumped on the roadways in very significant quantity. Really nuts. Brine would have handled this very well.

Snow cover status: 75-80% coverage with an average depth of 1". South facing exposures patchy coverage to bare ground. North facing and shadier locations holding onto 2" or a tad more this morning.

Mt. Holly has just posted Advisory. Not much but it doesn't take much light freezing rain or drizzle you send you sliding.

Solid white Christmas here. 100% coverage at 8am with average depth 3". This morning 85-90% coverage with average depth of 2".

Great pictures of 1947 event! Vintage! Was a solid white Christmas here yesterday with 100% coverage and average depth of 3" at 8am. Lost coverage mid and late afternoon and by end of the day (7pm) was about 85-90% coverage with average depth of 2". Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to everyone.

1.2" new snow here. That fell in just about a 2 hour period. Average snow depth is 4". Melted total today is .09".

That's ok. We had snow to whiten Christmas and a decent cold snap. We still need the rain so I'll take it. Drought Monitor has only made little progress with the recent rains.