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Everything posted by MANDA
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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum
MANDA replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
High amplitude troughing near and west of 80W.....I'll take it! Please! Would be nice to have something in the tropics to take advantage of that position but nothing in the pipeline. Hoping for something meaningful. In the meantime August looks to finish with nothing and be a very dry month overall. -
Missed out on any rainfall overnight with the front. Expect some escalation in Drought Monitor over parts of the Northeast sector later this week. Still think we see some Severe Drought classification for parts of this sub forum before things get better. Extreme Drought classification for parts of the Northeast sector not out of the question. Absent any tropical activity the pattern continues to look dry. Mainly of concern for AG interests and home gardeners.
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Can you just imagine when the next REAL SIGNIFICANT threat comes along. They will be tripping over the hyperbole. Just picture what it would be like if something like a Donna or 1944 came along. Mr. Ed from NJ will be leading the charge with daily news conferences 7 days before and 2 weeks after. The smart people hate the media and those that don't fall for all the hype. Hook, line and sinker every single time. I'll add....the only "hype" that was really needed was the message about rip currents, waves and surf to keep the truly stupid out of the water.
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Currently 55 degrees with sheets of drizzle. Loving it. Feels like October out there. Picked up .61" rainfall thus far. Would have liked more but I'll call it a win. With the cooler temperatures the .61" will "last" longer than if we bounced back to sunny and 90. I swear things look greener even with just .61".
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I think we are underway with a significant dry pattern, much like last year. We'll see how long it persists but sure looks like the rest of this month is going to be dry. Expect upgrades (D1 or even D2) to the Drought Monitor in the coming weeks. Not expecting much today in terms of widespread coverage. If you get something consider yourself lucky.
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Weather has been nice but man it is boring as hell. I'd rather watch water evaporate. Soon to become hot and boring. It also looks to continue pretty dry. Lawn is crisping and garden needs regular watering. Missed out on any big rains here over the last several weeks. Hopefully in the next week to 10 days we'll have something meaningful to track in the tropics. Big ridge out there so westerly movement is favored over re-curvature OTS in the longer term.
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Low here this morning was 54. Few upper 40's normal NWNJ chilly spots. Great weather to open August. No complaints from me. I guess next up in terms of interesting weather will be how much heat returns in about 10 days or so and what the tropics can produce as MJO comes around into favorable phases. Some interesting ensemble and op model solutions as we head toward mid month. If we can keep some sort of upper ridge parked to our NE might be interesting. Either way overall pattern looks to support more westerly tracks with lower chance of re curvature OTS. We'll see how it plays out.
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Outflow boundary along and south of 78. Storms firing up along it. Highest risk area for excessive totals and Flash Flooding sadly looks to repeat in an area that was recently hit hard....along and especially south of R78 in NJ and then into and near SI / NYC. Areas to the NW of that especially west of 287 and along and north of 80 seem to be in an area where excessive totals and the threat for Flash Flooding is minimal and decreasing.
