MANDA

To each his own I guess.

Thanks very much.

Yeah….torch. Not.

Hi Don. Is it possible when you get a chance to let us know the temperature anomalies starting last Tuesday through today? Say at ISP, LGA, JFK, CP, EWR and MMU? As you said the warming has peaked. Temperatures for the coming week look to me to average within 1 degree of normal. It was milder this past week for sure but not a torch in my book. Any stats appreciated. Thanks. Also if you could include monthly departures month to date?

Over the last 2-3 days yes. But 5-7 days ago I was in 1-1.5” from most guidance and WPC.

Rain is looking sparse up this way today. So far just .04". Radar clearly shows the bulk of this will be south of my location. Another precipitation event that is much lighter up this way than what was initially modeled several days ago. I'm wondering if we'll even break 1/4" up this way and NW of here. After today the model consensus AT THE MOMENT looks to be on the dry side for the next 5-7 days with a cooling trend back to seasonable and then colder beyond next weekend.

I'll give it a chance....looks like it could be a positive change / addition. I believe I read most if not all NWS offices will be adopting this new format?

Rumblings on some longer range guidance of major cold returning to the central and eastern U.S. once past 1/17. We'll see but there is still a bitter cold pool of air over NW Canada and Alaska and it isn't going away soon. Hard to imagine how we avoid at least some of it with increasing signal for +PNA developing. Stay tuned....more to come. Snowfall / storm track as usual is uncertain. Cold could overwhelm the pattern and keep snowfall on the limited side.

Still looking good !

Some BIG parking lot mounds my area. They will be around for a while. Plowed areas in my neighborhood likely gone by the weekend.

Down to a trace of snow cover with 10% coverage. Patches of snow only in heavily shaded north facing locations. Will be gone by end of the day with much more sun than yesterday and the corresponding milder temperatures. Now we wait....

Ridge axis as shown is too far west for my liking but 204 hours out that can and and will change for better or worse. Would also like to see the upper low over eastern Canada displaced more to the east and the corresponding ridge to the east displaced more SSW. Not the most ideal map as shown. Although kind of pointless to be dissecting a 204 hour prog. As we all know no phasing no big snows so a long ways to go but at least something to keep an eye on. DEFCON 5

Been socked in here since late morning. I want more sun!

Expect I'll lose all but the plowed mounds by the end of the day.

I wasn't sure either but it has been confirmed big melt / flooding about 10 days after 1996 Blizzard.

Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong but I believe a significant warmup and heavy rains about 1 week or so later wiped out about 36" of snow cover and I think the flooding was quite notable. ????

Just got the highest gas bill here since we moved in back in June 2016. Second only to last January. Two zones and lower level heats with Mini Split but that is of course electric. Prior to 2016 going back to 2002 in our last larger house (just shy of 5000 SF with no zones) I had just two bills that were about $30-$40 higher than my current bill. When we were young and starting out I could figure on $100-$150 a month on average for gas and electric combined. Now closer to $550 month on average combined. Somewhat less during the transition seasons. Sorry to go off topic but not much else going on.

Not to mention that on those side streets that had cars parked on them there is just no place to put all that snow. Cars were buried for days and if you didn't dig them out quickly you ran the risk of them becoming locked in a glacier...if you did dig them out right away you ran the risk of them getting plowed in. Never lived in the city but worked there for a time and it always amazed me that in the big storms the side streets were clogged for days. If you dare moved your car you might not get a parking space again till the thaw came.

Saturday 12Z models locked in and never wavered.

The 850 low track with that storm was just textbook and it crawled up to just southwest of the benchmark. The dynamics were off the charts and I don't think (up until that time at least) I had seen a more impressive FOUS output. VV's were beyond words for 36 hours and all the other parameters were just drool worthy. I think I have a copy of some of that FOUS data. If I can dig it out I'll post it later.

Same here. Had slightly more in 2016 (31") and that was a great storm as well but 96 was just special.

Great memories of that storm. Had 28" at my then location in southern Morris County. The duration of the storm was impressive and the synoptic development was text book! Still have the old difax maps.

Still remains frigid (I think this is week 3, maybe 4) over Alaska and western and Northwestern Canada. Locations over interior Alaska dipped to -60F earlier this morning. With deep solid snow cover over all of Canada and the upper mid-west / great lakes anytime the flow turns favorable to deliver cold into the central and eastern U.S. the cold will likely over perform. Thinking cold will out duel "warmth" over the next 2-3 weeks at least. Precipitation likely to continue the trend of normal or below during that time.

Honestly I'm looking forward to the upcoming thaw (I wouldn't call it a torch) but at the same time I am glad it is looking transient. Another very light dusting of snow this morning. Thankfully they did not come around and do another salt dump. These little snow events are ok but now that the holidays are past I can do without these nuisance events and the persistent cold and wind has become a bit much. I'll be ready do go again in about 10 days! In search of a KU this season but don't see the pattern for one showing up next two weeks at least. Based on the current medium to longer range guidance it looks the anomalies during colder periods would exceed those of the milder pauses in the transient pattern.