MANDA

Is it really unbelievable? It never was much of one. It had next to no ensemble support from any model. If there was no GFS head fake the "event" would have had very little attention to begin with.

Flakes and graupel here.

Looks like the best echos are going to pass north of me, more over Sussex County. Still I think I get clipped by the southern end. Will keep you posted.

Rainfall was sparse up this way from event just ended. I did better than I thought by a couple of tenths but just NW of here it was a struggle to reach 1/4". Overall the dry pattern continues. We're going to need a significant pattern shift to get some coastal systems or inland runners to boost the long term rainfall totals. And before anyone says "what dryness" see the attached link. It has been dry across NJ for the last 12+ months. https://www.njweather.org/content/quickly-out-gatedrought-persists-december2025-annual-report

Lot's of energy expended last few days on this upcoming non event. It never had any kind of remote support from ANY ensemble guidance and the best modeling we have (ECMWF) never had much of anything. GFS is a follower not a leader. Without some kind of steady multi cycle support from at least the CMC or better yet the EURO best to ignore it. In my opinion the GFS will never be the first to sniff anything out 3-5+ days in advance. MAYBE if it has some ensemble support from its own members it might deserve some attention otherwise I ignore it. For now I'm more interested in the return to colder starting later next week and beyond.

To each his own I guess.

Thanks very much.

Yeah….torch. Not.

Hi Don. Is it possible when you get a chance to let us know the temperature anomalies starting last Tuesday through today? Say at ISP, LGA, JFK, CP, EWR and MMU? As you said the warming has peaked. Temperatures for the coming week look to me to average within 1 degree of normal. It was milder this past week for sure but not a torch in my book. Any stats appreciated. Thanks. Also if you could include monthly departures month to date?

Over the last 2-3 days yes. But 5-7 days ago I was in 1-1.5” from most guidance and WPC.

Rain is looking sparse up this way today. So far just .04". Radar clearly shows the bulk of this will be south of my location. Another precipitation event that is much lighter up this way than what was initially modeled several days ago. I'm wondering if we'll even break 1/4" up this way and NW of here. After today the model consensus AT THE MOMENT looks to be on the dry side for the next 5-7 days with a cooling trend back to seasonable and then colder beyond next weekend.

I'll give it a chance....looks like it could be a positive change / addition. I believe I read most if not all NWS offices will be adopting this new format?

Rumblings on some longer range guidance of major cold returning to the central and eastern U.S. once past 1/17. We'll see but there is still a bitter cold pool of air over NW Canada and Alaska and it isn't going away soon. Hard to imagine how we avoid at least some of it with increasing signal for +PNA developing. Stay tuned....more to come. Snowfall / storm track as usual is uncertain. Cold could overwhelm the pattern and keep snowfall on the limited side.

Still looking good !

Some BIG parking lot mounds my area. They will be around for a while. Plowed areas in my neighborhood likely gone by the weekend.

Down to a trace of snow cover with 10% coverage. Patches of snow only in heavily shaded north facing locations. Will be gone by end of the day with much more sun than yesterday and the corresponding milder temperatures. Now we wait....

Ridge axis as shown is too far west for my liking but 204 hours out that can and and will change for better or worse. Would also like to see the upper low over eastern Canada displaced more to the east and the corresponding ridge to the east displaced more SSW. Not the most ideal map as shown. Although kind of pointless to be dissecting a 204 hour prog. As we all know no phasing no big snows so a long ways to go but at least something to keep an eye on. DEFCON 5

Been socked in here since late morning. I want more sun!

Expect I'll lose all but the plowed mounds by the end of the day.

I wasn't sure either but it has been confirmed big melt / flooding about 10 days after 1996 Blizzard.

Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong but I believe a significant warmup and heavy rains about 1 week or so later wiped out about 36" of snow cover and I think the flooding was quite notable. ????

Just got the highest gas bill here since we moved in back in June 2016. Second only to last January. Two zones and lower level heats with Mini Split but that is of course electric. Prior to 2016 going back to 2002 in our last larger house (just shy of 5000 SF with no zones) I had just two bills that were about $30-$40 higher than my current bill. When we were young and starting out I could figure on $100-$150 a month on average for gas and electric combined. Now closer to $550 month on average combined. Somewhat less during the transition seasons. Sorry to go off topic but not much else going on.

Not to mention that on those side streets that had cars parked on them there is just no place to put all that snow. Cars were buried for days and if you didn't dig them out quickly you ran the risk of them becoming locked in a glacier...if you did dig them out right away you ran the risk of them getting plowed in. Never lived in the city but worked there for a time and it always amazed me that in the big storms the side streets were clogged for days. If you dare moved your car you might not get a parking space again till the thaw came.

Saturday 12Z models locked in and never wavered.