MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Just can never remember so much flip flopping. It has had fails but this last week if runs was just horrendous.
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Could be I guess. These days who knows what the hell is real or AI.
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Will see what I can send you once we’re done with this storm and I get back on a regular sleep schedule.
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Good grief bro. Get yourself a better base map. Looks like a 70’s neon sigh. I fully expected it to pulse in and out. You clearly put work into it but you need a better base map.
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That western cutoff is painful to look at. Amounts fall off quickly once you cross into EPA.
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That and models POSSIBLY sniffing out some banding features.
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Not endorsing the amounts by any means. Interesting though that the NAM, SREF and HRRR have been targeting these two areas for several consecutive runs.
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Yes. See map Don posted for this upcoming storm only.
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The January event ticked upwards right up until the event was underway. Went into it thinking about 1” or a little more of liquid and ended up with 1.5”. Totally different setup between this and that of course but it got wetter right up until the event.
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I'll say this.....the visible satellite pictures off the Northeast coast Monday are going to be a sight to behold.
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Said this a few times yesterday. This is going to do better than 10:1 at times during the storm.
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Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA. Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ.
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Solidly driving very heavy amounts well into the Catskills FWIW.
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With the 12Z data so far this morning I am comfortable with my 10-15” forecast for my area. Don’t plan on any changes until after I see the mesos this evening. I think it is a good blend between the insane NAM totals and tamer RGEM.
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My forecast as of now for my location is 10-15”. Trying to stay reasonable. Banding and extent of NW push will tell the tale.
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Last night I thought I would be happy with 12”. Now I want 18” or bust.
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Watch these meso models now to see how this starts to evolve. These closer in tracks with a track to inside the BM will up the ante.
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Like the look of this. Will get the nuclear totals solidly into NWNJ. Almost go time. 12Z Mesos will start really zoning in on this one way or the other.
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If these trends hold absolutely. Going to be some insane banding as this matures.
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So sorry. Truly.
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I think the winds will break up the dendrites and slightly temper accumulations but I don't think this is going to be a wet paste type of snow that clings to everything such that it will bring down trees and power lines. Not going to be champagne powder either.
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Yes. Especially in heavier bands.
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By Saturday morning after 12Z cycle everyone was going ape shit. Remember it well.
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Have to agree. Start there and see how things look after 6Z and 12Z tomorrow. Can always go up....lose credibility if you have to drop too much.
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I'd have to say not far off the mark with 2/78. Same general evolution.
