MANDA

Will be interesting to watch the model progression of this over the next few days. Certainly the last several cycles have trended more favorable. Let's see if those trends continue. Will be most interested to see if 12Z CMC can hold onto something similar and if the EURO looks similar or better.

Useless. Above or below by how much 1 degree? 10 degrees? I don't disagree with the poster though. The -NAO and -AO will not cut it alone. Been saying that for the better part of 10 days now. So yes it is possible the PNA stays negative and EPO stays positive and S.E. Ridge links up with the block and we get ugatz. However the target period at least in my mind has always been 12/20 to 12/31 and that is right after time stamp on both these maps. I agree the 6-10 and 8-14 are going to be above normal. How much? My estimate is that the period 12/1 to 12/19 runs about +3. It is the period after that that still has the potential to deliver some snow and a modest chance to beat the +3 back down so the month finishes close to normal or a tad below. Should have much better idea once we get to next Monday where this pattern is going. By that time we'll be within 10 days of 12/20 to the rubber is going to have to start hitting the road.

Just absolutely 100% useless. Serves no purpose.

Every 6 hours!

GFS is always a follower and never a leader so I agree.

Nice signal, especially inside of 10 days instead of 15. In my mind any freezing or frozen precipitation prior to 12/18 is gravy on the biscuit. My target dates for something of substance remains 12/20 - 12/31. We SEEM to be edging slowly in that direction. Confidence remains guarded however. At least for another week or so and we see how things look at that point.

If this is real, and I suspect it is then this is going to help the cause. Neutral or weak positive is better than a -1 or greater.

Moral of all of this is: -Not all -NAO / - AO's are created equal and with a -PNA may not deliver the desired results. EPO is also a factor but I believe PNA is more crucial. By the end of this coming week we'll have a rather clear view to 12/18 or so. If December is going to be "saved" in terms of BN temperatures and at least normal snow if will be in the period 12/20 - 12/31. It always has been that period but originally the period starting 12/7 was supposed to start trending at least colder. That is now delayed. Don't want any additional delays beyond 12/18. At least there is no blow torch in the cards. Next 7-10 days look to average modestly above normal, on the order of about +2. That will leave the first half of December above. I think if things fall into place we could beat the positives back to normal or a little below for the month but until things become clearer that is not a given. Leaning toward a solid period of BN temps last 1/3 of the month but confidence only about 60% as of now.

Just some quick and dirty ensemble data to be taken with a grain of salt. All three LR models rather similar with snowfall over the next 2 weeks or so. These can and will change especially once to day 7 and beyond. EURO members pretty weak though in terms of notable (4"+) snow for NYC. Pattern is forecast rather wet so it is not that qpf will be lacking just not looking to be in the form of snow. EURO also not bullish on any notable cold over next 2 weeks. Again, will likely be some adjustments once to day 7 and beyond. Just pointing out that at least based on 12Z run of ensemble means pattern does not look overly cold or snowy through 12/17. Did not have time to dive into 500 mb. charts so this is just a snapshot based on the means. We're hoping for the period after this to deliver the goods as far as cold and storminess so we'll see where all this heads. I'm still favoring an active 12/20 to 12/30 period.

I'd take the CMC over the GFS though. Skill scores confirm that. GFS I find essentially useless beyond 4-5 days. It has huge swings run to run. We'll see if the newly released version does any better????

Totally agree. If anything of substance - notable cold and snow threat(s) are going to happen it will be from roughly 12/20 to 12/30. There does remain the risk of not much during that period depending on how things evolve. I'm leaning toward an interesting period but there are risks that the pattern does not setup and deliver the goods. At least interesting to watch.

Great post !

Of all of those the EPS looks best as far as cold and storminess potential in the east. If I had to pick one to be in my court I'd want the EPS. We're still looking at day 10+ and maybe day 15+ before this potential pattern can maybe start to deliver. Don't see much next 7-10 days to get that excited about. Do have to watch for the dreaded constant push forward in time model solutions in the coming days. Block is coming of that I'm sure but what the effect is on sensible weather in the east is uncertain. The block on its own is not going to do it as far as cold and snow for this forum.

Anyone got the Kuchera

I believe the GFS was upgraded and put into op mode today, GFSV16.3. Was supposed to go operational yesterday but held off until today due to the severe weather. We'll see how it performs. My expectations are low. The upcoming high latitude blocking seems like a given at this point. Model consistency across the board has been good and it has not been getting pushed out in time like last year. What fruit it yields is yet to be determined. Do not underestimate the possibility that it is just cold and dry with perhaps something as the block retrogrades and decays in the week or so before Christmas. As mentioned in a prior post by jm1220.

Thank goodness for the "cold" period after the very warm opening or it might have been a top 3 or warmer November. The colder than normal middle of the month did a decent job at knocking back the opening very positive departures. Months with negative temperature departures (even against the warmest normals we've ever had) are pretty rare these days. We'll see what December can produce but the opening of the month is certainly going to start off on the milder side. December does look to have the POTENTIAL to finish BN but caution is advised since much will depend on the -NAO blocking and were / how it actually positions itself. If the SE ridge (which seems to be a semi-permanent feature of late) hangs on, even only modestly then temperatures will finish at or above normal levels. Pattern overall though looks to favor much colder air masses from the center of the country at least oozing into the eastern 1/3 of the nation.

Ugly

IF, and it is a BIG IF this far out, that over the top ridge bridge works out then we could see winter weather of note. I'll add that it is the GFS and it is WAY out in time. If this vanishes or keeps getting pushed out in time, i.e. it is always two weeks away then it is not likely to evolve. Right now my expectations are muted.

I know this if off topic for this forum but not much else going on in the near term so I'm posting totals from around Buffalo. Best totals clearly south of the city. Forecast max totals were realized but they were just further to the south and not in the city proper. Such is the nature of LE bands.

SO JEALOUS! I gotta chase one of these events...one of the few things on my bucket list.

Very cool! I'm counting 3 distinct mesovortices. Dynamic atmosphere.

A little off topic for this forum but interesting radar out of Buffalo. You can see as the flow backs from WNW to SW the lake effect snow gun is now starting to take aim on Buffalo as some intense echos are moving down the length of Lake Erie toward metro Buffalo. Give it two hours and it should be snowing hard in the Buffalo metro. COD NEXRAD: BUF

Just light IP / R mixture. All surfaces just wet. Temperature 34.1.

Same thing here. Temp also 35.4.