MANDA

Yep, back to the dry pattern. Feel bad for the folks that did benefit in a meaningful way from the rain this past weekend. Back to watering the garden and the lawn. Thankfully temperatures are being held in check for now, no complaints in that department from me. I'll take this over 90+ any day.

Nasty smoke plume persists over the northern plains stretching across the GL into parts of the NE. Those Canadian fires have been going on for about 3 weeks now I think. Smoke advisories and air quality alerts across parts of MT.

Had .48" rainfall here. Double what I was expecting. I'll take it. Once to the Delaware River amounts dropped off to near nothing. The wetter models over NJ were very overdone and the drier models were underdone. Long Island into SNE did the best which is what nearly all the guidance had.

Just some light rain and mist here now. Did have a period of moderate rain a while ago that got me to .28". Radar says anything else will come from the front later. Looks like that will move through rather quickly but additional showers or a period of rain likely. I reached where I expected to be so anything else is gravy on the biscuit.

Same here. Still hoping I can crack the .25" mark with some additional showers later on associated with the front.

Just .04" so far. Not surprised. Hoping for some heavier showers later with the front. I'll be thrilled if I can get .25". Something is better than nothing. Long Island will be the winner here when all is said and done.

Looking at the latest WV loop a potent kicker over the western Lakes and southern stream S/W progressing steadily along should serve to keep moisture plume over eastern NC and offshore waters moving more eastward than northward. No real sign of western edge of mid and high level moisture making it more westward since this morning. Sharp western edge and has not made any progress to the left. I'm in the model camps that are featuring drier west and wetter east. Generally favoring .25" to .50" for most of NJ with the .25" closer to the Delaware and the .50" closer to GSP....as a rough guide.

+ we need the rain. If we had been in a wetter pattern up until now nobody would be mentioning this except for the fact it might rain on a weekend day. Gardening and ag interests need rain.

Undeniably a first class "cold" shot for this time of year. Not only for the numerous record lows across the Northeast this morning but for afternoon highs yesterday and today. Quite impressive.

Yep! Not surprised and not unexpected.

Still a nasty smoke plume ongoing from Canadian forest fires.

As I said yesterday (and latest guidance has done little to change my mind) my expectations are low for beneficial rains this weekend. Especially from the city westward. The weekend threat is the only game in town. If we miss meaningful rain this weekend looks as though we have to wait until around or after the Memorial Day weekend. Have not looked at ensemble data last day or so but there was some decent support a few days back for a wetter end to the month. Hope so. Top soils are very dry.

Canadian forest fires still raging. Smoke plume still widespread. North of our area today.

I'd like to see the CMC come on board. Red flag until it does. It and the EURO are night and day. CMC is not the crap model the GFS is so until it starts to generate some qpf I'm not buying into the robust EURO. CMC seems more plausible given the overall pattern. Maybe not zero QPF but something less than the EURO is generating with time.

Agreed. I sure hope Saturday late into Sunday can produce but not overly optimistic. The lawn on the south facing side of my house is starting to "crisp" and top soil is very dry in the garden beds. Need almost daily watering. Thankfully pattern is keeping temperatures in check because if we were into m/u 80's with this dry pattern it would be worse. Reservoir levels are fine. Ag and home gardeners are having to water on a regular basis at this point.

Tough pattern for gardeners. Seems like feast or famine in the rainfall department lately.

If that EPS is close to correct (360 hours out so) temperatures at or just above normal and rather dry.

Agree. On the upside the grass seed I planted is in little danger of being washed away by downpours before it sprouts. Other than that a little to dry for gardeners.

Should keep temperatures more or less in check and pattern dry on NW flow.

Smoke plume from the Canadian wildfires has generally shifted southward last 24-36 hours. Sky may be hazy at times today as smoke from those fires impinges on our area. Nice April summary for NJ: https://www.njweather.org/content/odd-one-april-2023-recap

Slowly backing ourselves to June 21 then we SLOWLY start going the other way. Time marches on.

Three day rainfall totals. Quite hefty totals in spots. Safe to say the short term dryness is over.

Three day rainfall totals. Quite hefty totals in spots. Safe to say the short term dryness is over.

Rainfall total last 3 days = 4.11".

Three day event total = 4.11".