MANDA

TPC has again nudged the track a little to the right. Looks to me as if they are calling for landfall very near or just north of Tampa. If that track is realized the slow movement to me implies about 24 hours of water piling into Tampa Bay being pushed along by 80-100 mph winds. That in addition to water piling up before that 24 hour period. If that track is realized it is going to be a bad scene up into Tampa Bay. Current surge forecast is 5-10 feet. Would not be surprised if that forecast was increased depending how things evolve over the coming 18-24 hours. Satellite has been becoming more impressive every hour during the day today. Exact track and intensity very important to exactly how bad it gets in an around Tampa. Seems to me the best chance for Tampa to avoid the absolute worst would be for this to cross the coast and come in to their south...i.e. like the 18Z Icon. A distance of 10-20 miles will make a big difference.

All signs point to dry weather pattern into next week. Any remnant moisture from Ida looks to get squeezed out to the south of NJ. Maybe SNJ gets something meaningful (1-2") but not even sure about that. Just can't seem to get the tables to turn to get the Northeast into a wetter pattern.

So agreed. That is about as close as you could have come to a disaster and have avoided it. Someday it will happen but was not to be with Dorian. As storm like Dorian moving east to west toward a south Florida major metro would be epic disaster.

Tampa is about the latitude where conditions are going to become rapidly unfavorable to maintain a strong hurricane. Intensity will fall off quickly north of Tampa Latitude - especially with very slow movement. Satellite presentation is going to degrade quickly once past about 28N.

Exactly. Until that starts to correct TPC track adjustments will be minor. Also, Tampa still fully in the "cone" any tug to the right, by even 15-20 miles will put Tampa under the gun for the worst of the surge. Not over by a long shot for serious surge flooding into Tampa Bay. For Tampa to experience the worst possible surge the center would need to cross the coast just north of the metro area. Angle of approach also important and we're not likely to see the worst case scenario as far as that goes. Ian will be moving NNE approaching Tampa as opposed to worst case NE or ENE. Makes a big difference. Also Ian moving slowly so any wind trajectory the keeps winds coming up into the bay will be for rather long duration. Delicate situation and not fully resolved yet IMO.

Just .07" here. Glad some you you L.I. folks got something - much needed and well deserved.

So at 5pm it is nudged a little to the right by 15-20 miles. Peak intensity the same as 11am advisory and maybe a bit stronger as it nears landfall. Track will make big difference on intensity at landfall. If it hugs right side of cone stronger - hugs left side weaker. Gut feeling is another nudge or two eastward over the next few cycles.

Have to agree. Was expecting better looking than this by Sunday evening. Overall structure looking better on last visible pictures of the day. Outflow only restricted on the western side. No organization to the convection but it is trying hard. Based on 12Z guidance would expect TPC 5 pm advisory to leave cone in place from 11am. If any adjustment I think it would be slightly to the right in a nod to the persistent UKMET and especially EURO that have really not budged. Intensity forecast should also likely stay the same or perhaps come down a notch. Most of the latest guidance still has Ian peaking in the 125 to 140 mph before weakening as it approaches landfall.

Not wavering at all. Be wary on intensity though. Intensity still holy grail of hurricane forecasting. Conditions on that track would be favorable for something stronger. Not saying EURO is wrong but there is upside potential on a track coming in around or south of Tampa. Fact that EURO is not wavering for several runs now has to lead to higher confidence for landfall west coast of FL vs. Panhandle. Intensity is bigger question in my mind on a track like EURO is showing.

No change in TPC forecast cone with 11am advisory. They did drop peak intensity from 120 kts. to 115 kts. not really a notable change. They note changes in the day 3-5 track will "likely" require adjustments. Landfall location will make a big difference in landfall intensity. Further south stronger or central / eastern panhandle a weaker system at landfall. EURO / UKMET have been solid on taking Ian into west coast FL. We'll see how 12Z runs today evolve.

Was anticipating a much more organized looking system this morning. Surprised by lack of organized convection. First visible pictures of the day does show well established outflow in all but western sector. Shear is light and water is warm. Just need to get the LLC more vertically stacked with mid levels and then things should start to quickly improve. Should happen by evening but yesterday I thought that process would be completed by this morning so we'll see. Still interesting questions on landfall (GFS/EURO) and intensity at landfall. Some rapid model weakening going on late in the forecast period. Interesting overall situation to watch unfold. Landfall on the FL west coast would of course be the worst case in terms of intensity at landfall, especially if it landfalls from about Tampa southward. Panhandle to Big Bend likely weaker landfall solutions come into play. No real cut answers this morning. Still leaning 50-100 miles either side of Tampa for a landfall. Interesting to watch it unfold.

Notable shift to the left (west) on latest 18Z Tropical Models. Also intensity is boosted from 12Z as well. Based on this would fully expect 5pm TPC advisory track to be shifted NW from that of 11am even if only by a bit. EURO seems to be marking the eastward edge of track guidance as of now.

I might add I don't see anything on any global right now that makes the eastern trof deep enough to fully grab and slingshot Ian NNE or NE after landfall. Believe it will slow and meander somewhere over the southeast as huge high pressure builds north.

10m wind gust swath (usually overdone) is impressive. Even if you chop it by 10-15% it is still impressive and on that track verbatim (likely some adjustments will be made on future model runs) would send impressive surge into Tampa Bay. Will see what EPS offers in terms of track over the next 90 min or so. Additional soundings going into the models over the next many cycles should start to tighten up the track. Especially by tomorrow evening once a cohesive vortex has become established.

Sorry, I didn't mean anything negative by my post. Was just pointing out in a round about way I guess, that things seemed to be going according to plan as far as Ian pulling together. Apologies.

See what you think 24 hours from now. That is when it is and was expected to be more rapidly organizing. Development prior to tomorrow morning was expected to be slow.

Inching NW up the west coast of FL with forecast landfall. Question is: Is it done nudging NW? This track verbatim is worst case for Tampa Bay area. That track would maximize surge. Can see an additional nudge or two in future advisories but would not expect landfall further west than 85W. Said yesterday morning eastern FL panhandle to Keys was in play. This morning I'd say landfall 50-100 miles either side of Tampa. We'll see. This track would also maximize intensity as long as it keeps moving at reasonable clip and does not start ingesting drier air. This track also delays landfall to early Thursday.

You said it and once that pulls together this should be off and running. Very favorable environment and very favorable water temps.

Can't imagine what conditions will be like out on that island tonight into early tomorrow. Amazing stuff.

For certain the exposed LLC is not the "one". New one under the convection will be the one that gets the job done over the next 24-36 hours. Going to be another 24-36 hours for entire TD to clear the she shear zone but once it does it will get down to business rather quickly.

Yes. Typo....sorry. For sure convection is WEST of the exposed LLC.

Regardless if the 929 mb is too low and it likely is it will be quite a show up there. Suspect there will be power outages for 2 weeks or more over parts of Atlantic Canada....not fun.

6Z Tropical models clustering on SW Florida. Some robust intensity forecasts in there. Based on individual tracks from various models the stronger ones are the ones that go over western Cuba / nearer the Yucatan Channel then curve NE toward FL. Weaker ones are the ones that track further east over Cuba with just a short time back over water before impacting SW Florida. Still details to be determined. Do keep in mind Charley exploded in the hours just prior to landfall and TPC was playing "catch up" in real time as Charley was closing in on SW Florida. Charley was not forecast to be that strong 24-36 hours prior to landfall and was also forecast to go in further north up the FL west coast. Charley was also a tight and compact hurricane. Hermine will not be tight and compact...not sprawling but not small and compact.

First visible pictures of the day show all of the robust, deep and cold (near -80C cloud tops) convection east of the exposed LLC. Have to believe new LLC will develop under the deep convection over the next 24 hours. Where this ends up consolidating next 24-36 hours after it exits the shear zone will be a determining factor on eventual track. Stay tuned.

Pressure gradient between high to the north and Hermine to the south would create vast onshore flow at a minimum (assuming the OP EURO is onto something with track up coast) with above normal tides and coastal flooding up to SNE.