MANDA

So far the 12Z guidance is supporting a nice soaking for majority of this forum. Only the 12K NAM is displaced to the south over CNJ/SNJ with axis of heaviest totals. Rest of guidance is north of there over CNJ/NNJ and out over L.I. Canadian especially shows hefty totals across the forum. I'd be happy with 2" over a 24 hour period. Don't need the excessive totals as some of that would likely be wasted on runoff, especially with the rock hard and parched soils.

Exactly. What a joke that was.

12Z EURO clearly aiming the fire hose of moisture / rainfall north of this forum. It does have .50 - 1" totals for most of the forum but stand by because if the bulk of the moisture / rainfall does track from south central PA northeastward into central New England the totals over our area could be overdone. Ways to go and this could sink south some. Even HPC has cut amounts from 12Z issuance over our area. Still some time but not overly optimistic for the heavier totals we so badly need.

Agree. This is not a done deal where we all do the happy dance in celebration of rainfall just yet. We'll see what EURO shows shortly but may take until 00Z Sunday runs to hone in on this POTENTIAL event. I agree though, nervous we miss most of it to the north.

We can only hope. If persistence has anything to say about it this will be much reduced on future runs. Time will tell but lately dry begets dry and warmth.

Feel bad for you. Those are horrendous totals. Have to wonder how far back do you have to go to get anything like that? My totals are good compared to yours. .09" 1.49" 3.84"

Had my rainfall for the day. Sixty second heavy shower that dropped .02". Radar says I'm all but done. Next.

Already showing signs of peaking. Doubt much is left by 8:00 or so. NJ counties that border PA stand best chance at something meaningful. Maybe some .50" amounts there. Elsewhere .25" or less I think.

Yeah, if only. The model is questionable days 3 to 5 and useless beyond day 5 in my opinion. It flops around like a fish out of water. That solution is so far fetched it is laughable. Why anyone looks at it beyond day 5 is beyond me. Even at day 3 to 5 I only use it to compare to the superior Euro and CMC. It is a follower not a leader.

And the naming Colin was an absolute joke.

As bad as that is for this forum it is so much worse for eastern New England. Even beyond 7 days no real sign of significant pattern change to seasonable and wetter. Brutal.

Euro 12Z EPS offers modest support to the op solution at day 10. Worth watching with not much else going on. Water is bathtub warm off the east coast and has been untouched so far this season. Assuming atmospheric conditions are favorable this would have some potential. System seeding this 10 day feature has persisted for 24-36 hours now. We'll see. High pressure would appear to be entrenched north of feature so if it can get going some reasonable expectation of the southeast U.S. threat. Ten days away but gaining some model support last few cycles.

With nothing else to hang our hats or anticipations on the Euro at day 10 and some of its ensembles from 00Z, have not seen 12Z yet have a tropical system near the Bahamas on day 10. High pressure aloft is entrenched to the north so some semblance of U.S. threat is possible down the road. Long ways off but with absolutely nothing else going on might as well find something on the maps of interest.

Honestly, I just can't wait for this summer to be over. Just dragging at this point and like you said nothing of interest now for months. Just the same old stuff day in and day out.

Hi-Res looks better. I think things pretty much on track for widespread 1/2" to 1" NNJ into NYC and L.I. Some will do better than 1" but I think most everyone gets to the 1/2". We need it! We miss out on this and we're skunked for another week.

Some good model agreement overnight for some much needed rainfall for most of this forum. Best amounts 1"+ look to focus over NNJ. Period of interest from late afternoon into this evening and then again Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Best chances we've seen this close to "show time" in quite a while.

Latest 5 day QPF from HPC. We can only hope. This has been trending upwards over last several releases. It is on the upper end of most guidance so they are aiming high. I'd take half this and be happy.

Here are the most recent (today) maps for NJ and NY

I agree. Something to hope for but based upon how the current Ohio Valley / Eastern trof evolved and played out with hefty rain totals forecast and we literally received nothing I don't put much faith in these longer range projections at this time. Nice to see it on a map, it does offer hope just not something I place high confidence in at this juncture. IF the forecast pattern is real it would tend to open the door to some east coast tropical activity but we're a ways off from seeing how this actually evolves.

It only takes one to make it a memorable season but having a hard time seeing the lofty number of named storms at this point. Would need to be a non stop naming frenzy for September and October to get there. The 1992 season would have been a total late starting dud were it not for one storm - Andrew. Which oddly enough was classified as a TD on 8/16 - yesterday back in 1992. It did pretty much nothing for a week or so before busting through the TUTT and then going to town. Just entering the peak season now but off to a very slow start and we might make it though to CLOSE to the end of the month without a named system.

Out working in the yard today and the topsoil is dust. Just terrible.

It was an extremely wet season last year and that is what made the rains from Ida so much worse. Not that it wouldn't have been a terrible situation without the antecedent wet conditions but when you add the wet summer to rains from Ida it was beyond historic for most of NJ. My total here for July, August, September and October was 34.20"!

Since 7/1 = 2.75". Last 60 days = 3.64". Last 30 days = 1.94". Not nearly as bad as some locations. Got lucky with some T-Storms during second half of July. Take those two days out of the mix and you can knock 1.43" off of all those totals.

No joke that is for sure. We COULD go another 10 days with 1/4" to 1/2" rainfall from New Jersey, LI and up into NYS and New England, at least the majority of places could. Not good. NJ could be going to Drought Emergency by end of the month if we don't get some needed rainfall. The Mon - Wed event will depend on how trof and upper level low evolve so still some time to salvage something but from this vantage point not looking promising. We'll see.

ICON FWIW is very close to CMC. Don't like having the GFS as my only rainy solution even if 3 - 4 days out. We'll see what EURO does but my suspicion is that it will lie closer to the ICON and CMC.