MANDA

Slight shift west from 12Z EPS. One more nudge and east coast (north of Florida) threat may be realized. Realized to at least the point of a heavy rain event. Intensity overall yet TBD on any treck northward, but no matter there was a nudge west from 12Z EPS. With system now organizing model guidance should start to hone in on a solution over the next 36-48 hours. Target area in my mind for landfall is SW Florida up to extreme eastern panhandle. Door has closed for landfall further west along the AL/MS/LA coast. Intensity is going to have a lot to do with interaction with digging trof and forward speed. Also at what point does it interact with Cuba. Further west track with minimal interaction will make for a stronger system. Conditions are favorable and water is as warm as it gets over the NW Caribbean. I do think a slower movement toward a FL landfall is in the cards so I believe it will be coming in off peak but that is by no means a certainty. Residents along the west coast of FL from the Keys to the eastern panhandle should keep a watchful eye on this.

Just .31" for the event here. UNLESS moisture from 98L eventually gets up here will be dry over the next 7 days with sprawling high pressure over the area. All will hinge on what track 98L eventually takes.

Shift this ensemble package west by 100 to 150 miles and you've got a big rainmaker in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I think an eastern FL Panhandle potential is still in play but have to watch next 2-4 12Z and 00Z cycles for a shift either west or east. I believe western FL Panhandle on westward and Yucatan landfalls are outlier options at this point.

At this point I'm about ready to dismiss a landfall any further west than the eastern FL Panhandle. I"m riding the EURO train here. It does fairly well in situations like this. I'd feel better if we had a well developed TD or TS rather than expected genesis. If the EURO does something like this track again tonight and again tomorrow I'd say we are coming to a believable solution. For what it is worth WPC keeps all moisture out of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next 7 days and implied beyond that. Still not at a final solution yet but I think the western ones should start to be thought of as outliers.

Still a long ways to go with this and final outcome is days away. Just as an aside though. IF the CMC is correct with temperatures in the 50's in parts of SC it could make for an interesting overrunning situation for parts of the SE and POSSIBLY Mid-Atlantic as warm, very moist tropical air gets lifted over the cooler air mass. Big high to the north with vast onshore flow so not out of the question that an excessive rain event develops somewhere along or east of the mountains depending on eventual track.

Received .06" from FAST moving T-Shower. A few very loud booms of thunder and some vivid flashed of lightning. The sound and light show was more impressive than the rain total that's for sure. In and out in 2-3minutes around 6:30.

Agreed. Best chances not until approaching western third of Caribbean. System will have lots of latitude to gain to make it cleanly through the Yucatan Channel. Honestly the only sure thing is it likely doing little next 2 - 3 days. Everything past that is conjecture to say the least. Interesting to track and follow but any model solution past 3 days at this point should be taken as "hmmmm, interesting". Personally I'd favor the more southern model tracks through the Caribbean as of now due mainly to low latitude starting point and northerly shear being produced by Fiona. Upper ridge building in wake of Fiona should prevent this from gaining latitude in the near term and also aid in keeping it on a more westward track.

Convection with potential GOM threat this is currently located east of the islands is looking robust this morning. Fairly far south but quite robust. Three major global models (GFS/Canadian/EURO) are all developing this wave once to the central and western Caribbean. All three models showing something 4-6 days out is something we've not seen in the tropics so far this season. Climo favors more central / western Caribbean development this time of year so that combined with models showing little development before then suggests system will only slowly organize for the balance of the week. Assuming it does and assuming atmospheric conditions are favorable once system reaches the western Caribbean it will be passing over the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic Basin. Potential is there for something noteworthy. That says nothing though to what potential intensity would be at any potential U.S. landfall. That will depend on many things. Something to watch for sure though with the good model genesis agreement down the road. Any CONUS U.S. threats for the rest of the season are going to have to come from a system like this - i.e. lifting north from Caribbean / GOM. Classic CV threats are over for this season.

Received .25" here late afternoon. Feel in about 5 min.

VIS & IR satellite continue to show an intensifying hurricane. Some modest shear on the western side otherwise it is ventilating quite well in all other quadrants. Classic signature of hurricane heading toward major status. Trof / upper low to the east and northeast is doing an excellent job of ventilating Fiona. Pretty classic signature really.

Gusty T-shower underway here. Moving quickly based on radar so not expecting much in the way of rainfall.

That high level outflow / anticyclone is very impressive look. Fiona is gonna "go" once she fully clears land. Upper level outflow almost has that classic "atmospheric sink" look to it.

Held up extremely well with passage over PR and extreme eastern DR. Satellite VIS and IR very impressive and shows a system that continues to develop. Little doubt this reaches Cat 3. Interesting thing is Danielle, Earl and Fiona all will have reached their peak intensity outside of the deep tropics.

Agreed. Not ruling out the development just not buying into the Texas landfall. One thing for sure is that if atmospheric conditions are favorable this potential system will be traversing some of the deepest and warmest water in the basin. High end system certainly in play assuming the wave gets going in the first place.

Three day totals up to 20" near Ponce. Large data void over mid part of the island where in theory some of the heaviest rainfall would have been enhanced by orographic lift but map does show how heavy some totals have been.

Wind gust swath on Euro is bad enough but at least max stays west of Bermuda. GFS not so much - shows RFQ potentially directly impacting Bermuda. Going to be a close call. My bets are on a closer approach than the EURO shows.

Storm chaser Brett Adair posted video (see link) from just west of Ponce. Looks every bit and then some like a Cat 1. Impressive flying debris. https://twitter.com/i/status/1571567670163607552

Yeah, looking bad with much more rain to come from the looks of the latest radar. Bad situation.

Yes, sorry. I was focusing on CONUS. Should have been more clear about that. I totally agree PR is in for a rough go with extremely heavy rains, potential mudslides and flooding as Fiona moves slowly over / past the island. Just hard to envision potential landfalls for the balance of the season for the CONUS coming out of the MDR of the Atlantic or CV type systems. Believe any potential threat would come from a system lifting north out of the Caribbean / Bay of Campeche / GOM. Not ruling out something landfalling on CONUS from Caribbean or GOM just yet. Fiona will rack up ACE but there does not seem to be much behind her in the pipeline at the moment.

Only thing to impede it over the next 24 hours is proximity to PR. Once it clears PR and DR to the north it should be off to the races but yes it continues on the upswing.

Not sure why this post was given the "weenie" - I like to know from "NCsandhills" what he finds confusing or out of line.

Took 24 hours after it started to look impressive on satellite imagery yesterday. You knew this was coming.

Now that Fiona is a done deal as far as a U.S. hit I think we can close the lid on a miserable CV season. Any potential threats to the U.S. are going to have to come from a system lifting north out of the Caribbean / Gulf at this point. Not giving up on that chance just yet. Fiona has organized significantly over the last 24 hours and seems destined to reach hurricane status and maybe major hurricane status as it exits into the SW Atlantic over the next couple of days and heads out in general direction of Bermuda. This season is going to bust hard for anyone that was calling for big numbers and land impacts. Very surprising based on what the pattern looked like going into the season. Solid La Nina, SST that were at least normal, if not above in the MDR and some healthy waves emerging off Africa. Shear and dry air just put an end to the MDR season before it began. Even the Caribbean and GOM could not produce. We'll see what happens over the next 4 weeks. After that can't count on much.

Stunning pictures! Absolutely beautiful!

Structure continues to improve. This is going to pass over western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. Thinking very little or no passage over DR. Maybe center skirts the NE coast of DR. Certainly all the morning guidance is unanimous with fishing trip. Window for east coast threat has closed. Incoming mid week trof is just too strong. Fiona is going out. Seems as though any chance of U.S. landfall this season is going to have to come from Caribbean. Pattern just not going to allow for anything moving westward over the Atlantic to come close. Still not giving up on something from the Caribbean moving northward into the GOM or up nearer the east coast as we go into October. I think September chances are about done.