MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Finished with 2.95" here. Updated maps show six day event totals. Included New England if only to show how poorly models (at least initially) modeled the northern extent of .5-1" QPF. High pressure and dry air lost the battle for sure. Initially all the guidance was for the 1" line to just about maybe make it to the L.I. south shore. It eventually made it way beyond. I'd add that the tracks of the mid and upper level low and surface feature would have made for an epic snow dump if this had occurred in late December, Jan or Feb. Tracks were text book classic. Coastal sections likely would have gone to mix or rain just because of the winds being constantly onshore and wind direction going from NNE to more easterly near the end of the event but overall if would have been a blockbuster snow event especially inland. Mid and upper low tracks were exactly what you look for.
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Morning visible. Would have been one hell of a winter storm.
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Event total 2.78" over last 5 days. Entire forum received much needed rain. Coastal NJ did best with widespread 3-6" of rainfall. Some local amounts there 5-8" with even some local 10"+ amounts. Drought Monitor maps should be pretty much completely erased if not by tomorrow then by next Thursday issuance.
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1.48" last 24 hours (8am to 8am) and a four day total of 1.94". Cold out this morning with temperature of 41. So glad the south shore L.I. finally got what they needed!
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Ok, but PLEASE the NW edge has to be moved 50 miles to the NW or some of us will be skunked. Have had .01" since 7am. Hopefully this band will pivot more to the NW than any other today.
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Currently 48 degrees. Three day total up until 4pm = .47". Rain bands so far today get to within about 10 miles of me and then dry up. I like a cloudy, damp and chilly day at this time of year. so not complaining. Milder weather will be back for Thursday and Friday.
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If this were 8 -10 weeks later we would need to have had an urgent supply of Xanax IV drips brought in to all weather nuts along and north of roughly a Sandy Hook to Flemington line including metro NYC and L.I. Mix and rain along the coast but inland CNJ and SNJ would have been a huge snowstorm measured with a yardstick while north measured with a pocket ruler.
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Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida. Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall. Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way. We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3.
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I agree. Big sprawling ocean storm bumping up against strong high pressure aiding in keeping the winds up. No real change as far as impacts no matter what we call it but nothing tropical about this in my opinion.
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Some incredible picture in this article / link. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11263749/Stunning-aerial-pics-reveal-deadly-hurricane-cut-swath-Florida.html
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Absolutely - NO WAY! I'm with ya!
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Agreed.
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Convection building around the northern and eastern quadrants of the circulation, there was nothing there for most of the morning. A faster movement across FL and wider swing east over the gulf stream before heading to the north will given Ian the edge to reach low end Cat 1 status prior to SC landfall. As a side note it really is interesting how through most if not all of the track it has favored the right edge of the cone. Anyway radar and visible satellite not looking shabby. Increase in organization, good gradient between Ian and high to the north and baroclinic assistance will make for a gusty time of it over the NE FL, GA and SC coasts. Could be going post tropical around the time it approaches the coast with fronts near by.
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As bad as some of these pictures are I don't think this is the worst of it. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11261707/Monster-Hurricane-Ian-devastates-Florida-leaving-2million-without-power-trapped-homes.html
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Whats is left of the NW eye wall still not disappointing.
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Totally agree and much of the wind will be generated by gradient between big high to the north and leftovers from Ian to the south. Only thing that will aid in surge and coastal flooding along GA/SC is fact that flow has been strong onshore last 24 hours + so water has already been piling up along the coast. Agree though, not much left core wise to organize. Combine that with shear and low DP air to the west. Gradient and some baroclinic assist is all we've got.
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Horrible if true and avoidable if people would just follow evacuation orders. I hope this is not true.
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11' in Charlotte Harbor???
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They did luck out as far as surge. As "JM 1220" said the wind never aligned to push water up into the Harbor / Bay. So surge for that area was on the manageable side. Wind on the other hand was unrelenting as they were in the eye wall (NW eye wall especially) for a prolonged period. Like you said worse surge was from Boca Grande, Captiva, Sanibel on south to Fort Myers and Naples area. Big surge there.
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Having to do it once is bad enough but twice you have to be a special kind of person. I personally could not imagine it. Having lived through Sandy up here was bad enough and that was nothing compared to this in my area away from the shore. Just froze in the dark for 9 days and I was about ready to lose my mind.
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That NW eye wall is just unforgiving - hence the strong gusts over 120 mph still coming in. NW of the center is where you are going to see the worst wind damage. Southeast of and near the center is where storm surge damage will dominate. Not going to be pretty when dawn breaks tomorrow.
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It did. I remember vividly it came out stronger and better looking than when it went in.
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Power will be out for weeks or longer in some spots. Damage will be over a very wide area with major infrastructure destroyed in spots. Suspect some barrier islands will be uninhabitable for a while.
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Entire eye almost completely inland now. Maybe another 15-30 min. NW eye wall still looking vicious. Western and southwestern eye wall still yet to move onshore. Should do so over the next 30-60 min and Boca Grande to Sanibel could take it on the chin again. Water still being pushed onshore south of the eye near Fort Myers.
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Ian make second landfall on the mainland per TPC: Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 435 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN MAKES MAINLAND FLORIDA LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA NEAR PIRATE HARBOR... NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian has made landfall on the mainland southwest Florida peninsula just south of Punta Gorda near Pirate Harbor. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 145 mph (235 km/h). A WeatherSTEM station at the Cape Coral Fire Department recently reported a wind gust of 110 mph (177 km/h). A WeatherFlow station in Grove City on the western side of Charlotte Harbor reported a sustained wind of 85 mph (137 km/h) with a gust to 128 mph (206 km/h). SUMMARY OF 435 PM EDT...2035 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 82.0W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Papin/Bucci
